Genting SP: Bearish engulfing candle.

Genting SP spots a bearish engulfing candle today.  This is a big black candle that envelopes the entire candle of the previous day.  This is extremely bearish as it indicates that price started the day higher but met with resistance and turned down to close lower than the previous day's low. That this was accompanied by high volume makes it more ominous. The bearish situation is backed up by a sell signal on the MACD histogram and the MACD has turned down towards the signal line.

However, even with the massive sell down today, the uptrend is still intact.  Look at the support line I labelled "uptrend support 2".  This uptrend approximates the position of the 20dMA.  Could price bounce off this support in the next session or continue to decline to test the many times tested resistance turned support at $1.20?  Although the MFI has turned down, the uptrend is intact.  OBV has turned down which indicates some distribution took place today.

Genting Singapore down 3.9%; $1.20 support. Traders attribute selloff to market chatter of company planning share placement. Gaming group declined to comment when contacted.
Tuesday, 03 August 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Golden Agriculture: Sell down,

In my post on Golden Agriculture yesterday, I said that "Although volume expanded today, a case could be made that we are seeing a negative divergence with price.  Just keep this thought handy."

Golden Agriculture started the day at 60c to hit a high of 62c before retreating to close at 58.5c on high volume.  This is where we find the downtrend resistance which was overcome yesterday.

OBV has turned down which confirms that distribution is taking place.  However, the MFI is now higher than the previous high.  This hints that demand continues to be strong and there are buyers waiting to collect at lower prices.

Could 58.5c now serve as support?  It could but we need confirmation.  A stronger support is at 55.5c, as provided by the 100dMA.

Related post:
Golden Agriculture: Downtrend broken.

China Hongxing: Resistance broken.

Against the odds, China Hongxing broke the resistance provided by the 200dMA at 16c.  It touched a high of 17c before closing at 16.5c.

The sell signal on the MACD spotted in the last session is now negated as volume expanded today with the move up in price. MFI and RSI rose and stayed in the overbought region.  OBV rose higher which suggests increased accumulation. 

I look at the weekly chart for a glimpse of the longer term picture. The MFI, RSI and OBV are all rising.  MFI and RSI are not overbought yet. The MACD is still rising but in negative territory and its distance from the signal line is increasing. 

The bullish crossover with the signal line was completed five weeks ago.  Being in negative territory, this could just be a rebound but a strong one.  The increasing distance from the signal line is bullish but as the distance widens, bulls should turn cautious as the last four weeks have seen some big moves upwards.

The descending 100wMA is at 17.5c in the next session and this could be a formidable resistance.

STI climbs 1.3% to 3,025.04 at closing. Shares on the measure trade at 14.7 times estimated earnings, compared with about 17.5 times at the beginning of the year, according to Bloomberg data.
Monday, 02 August 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Hyflux Water Trust: Privatisation.

Trading of units in Hyflux Water Trust (HWT) was halted today as a proposed voluntary delisting was announced. The exit offer price is 78c per unit in cash.  This represents a premium of almost 14% over the last traded price of 68.5c.  Read announcement here.

I still have 5% of my original investment in HWT left, having divested the rest in stages for capital gains.  I planned to keep this remaining investment as a no brainer passive income earner for the longer term as I bought these at 30c early last year and the DPU is about 5c per annum, giving me a yield of about 17%.  This is not to be, it seems.  Looking on the bright side, I will be getting back some money and booking a gain.

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Hyflux, Mitsui form venture, offer to privatize trust. Hyflux, which owns a 31% stake in the Hyflux Water Trust, plans to vote in favor of the privatization offer, saying that the global financial and economic crisis of the past two years has made it more challenging for the trust in securing project financing.

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Monday, 02 August 2010

Healthway Medical: Underlying strength.

The sell signal on the MACD in the last session was negated today. In fact, the MACD seems poised to do a bullish crossover with the signal line in positive territory.

The rising MFI shows unabating demand. OBV shows gradual accumulation. 18.5c has been established as immediate support.

The rising 50dMA seems to be on course to hit 18.5c soon.  Could this push the price of Healthway Medical's shares up at the same time?

Volume has been declining as price settled into a tight range of 18.5c to 19.5c. There were two sessions in which volume spiked but price was unable to break past 19.5c.  This shows that there are still sellers out there.  However, with the OBV gradually higher, the sellers might be thinning as more accumulate shares in the company.

Technically, this counter is looking interesting.  Could we see a breakout soon? In case of a breakout, we could see a retest of 21c, the high of 16 Jun.

Golden Agriculture: Downtrend broken.

With the white candle formed today, closing at 60c, the downtrend which started on 11 January is effectively broken.

The buy signal on the MACD histogram spotted in the last session has been confirmed. Momentum oscillators are still rising, forming higher lows which is good news for bulls. Although volume expanded today, a case could be made that we are seeing a negative divergence with price.  Just keep this thought handy.

If the positive momentum keeps up, we could see the next resistance at 62.5c tested.  Immediate support is provided by the flat 100dMA at 55.5c. Uptrend support coincides with the rising 200dMA.

Tea with AK71: Bought a new car!

On 2 May, I blogged about how expensive it is to buy a new car now. I mentioned that I paid only $80k for my current car, a Mazda 6, almost five years ago and that for the same price I could only get a Mazda 2 hatchback, not even a Mazda 3, now! I said I would continue driving my fully paid Mazda 6 for another few years.

Yesterday, I blogged about my Mazda 6 being pillarised in a carpark and how I toyed with the idea of getting a new car. I decided to just keep driving my pillarised Mazda 6 after some thought. However, I still went online and looked at what's new at Mazda Motors just for fun. I was kind of attracted to the new Mazda 2 sedan which was just launched recently. Why not the hatchback? Cars, for me, must have a boot. 

The boot allows me to hide my car washing stuff and it also acts as an extra large bumper if my car were hit in the back by some reckless driver. Also, people cannot see what I have in the boot and would not be tempted to break into my car. Might be a false sense of security but it gives me a peace of mind.

As I had nothing much to do today, I went down to Mazda's showroom to take a look at the Mazda 2 Sedan. Mazda is having a 90th Anniversary promotion and I was given a $12,000 discount. So, final price is $71k for a new Mazda 2 Sedan with leather seats and solar film. They also offered me $29k for my old Mazda 6, accepting all the dents and scratches.

I made phonecalls to my parents to get their opinions before test driving the car. As my previous cars ranged from 1.6 litres to 2.2 litres in capacity, my major worry about the Mazda 2 was the possible lack of power, being a 1.5 litres. Driving the car, I was impressed by how such a small engine could deliver so much punch. I am not an engineer and I won't go into details like DOHC and stuff. The information is available online, I'm sure. Anyway, as you have probably guessed from the title of this post, I bought it.  Decision made within two hours or so.

A smaller car with a more fuel efficient engine is environmentally friendlier and is easier on the pocket as well.  I will save on petrol, road tax and maintenance.  The car will get a 3 years/100,000km warranty which is good. I have replaced quite a few parts under warranty for my previous cars before. I think it will not be any different with this car. Did I mention I was given $300 servicing vouchers as well?

The only downside is, of course, the much smaller size and this will take some getting used to.  Then again, most of the time, I am just driving myself around.  The backseat is usually for my briefcase, my gym bag and my Crumpler. So, this will be my first practical car for city driving.

I had hoped to drive my Mazda 6 for more than 5 years.  It seems that is not to be. I hope to drive this new car for more than 5 years. Wish me luck.

Related posts:
Tea with AK71: Buying car now?
Tea with AK71: Pillarised.

SPH: A new high.

SPH hit a new high of $4.20 early in the morning of the last session and closed at $4.13, up three cents from the previous session.  Volume almost quadrupled from the previous session and this has corrected the negative divergence I have blogged about recently.

The MACD is once again pulling away upwards from the signal line in positive territory.  The MFI is rising after forming a higher low, suggesting that demand is healthy.  OBV turned sharply upwards, indicating ongoing accumulation.

Immediate support is resistance turned support at $4.08. Immediate resistance is at $4.20, the new high.

Related post:
SPH: Rising on low volume.

Tea with AK71: Pillarised.

What is "pillarised"? I would be surprised if such a word existed. It is just a word that happened to pop into my head as my car had a close encounter with a pillar in the carpark this afternoon in Burlington Square.  That building has to have one of the most badly designed carparks in Singapore! One particular turn near the exit ramp was very tight.  Anyway, that's where my car's passenger door got "pillarised".  Sob.

I usually drive well and I have survived even the most claustrophobic of HDB carparks.  So, this accident was a bit of a shock for me.  Talking to a friend when I reached home, he suggested that my car is too big. Too big? It's a Mazda 6! Imagine if I were driving a Mazda CX-7! Although my car is turning five in less than two months, mechanically, it is still in good condition. Change my car? I admit that it is a tempting thought but it is probably not financially prudent to do so.

However, a customer recently told me that the COE price is probably going to increase month after month because less vehicles are being scrapped.  This would mean that prices of cars would keep climbing. He said if anyone wants to buy a new car, it is now! Where is my chequebook?!

Then, talking to my mom after the "pillarising" experience, she suggested that I wait a couple of days and if I really want to get a new car, do it.  My mom is basically being very rational and hinting to me not to be impulsive, I'm sure. Cool down and think clearly. I just damaged my car. Do I want to damage my chequeing account too?

I took a shower and felt a bit better.  I went downstairs, washed my car and decided that I could live with the damage for another few years. Yes, you guessed it.  I don't think I will fix the dent and scratches although my dad might insist that I do.  Will see.

Usually, I could manage very tight turns but there were too many things on my mind today and I was kind of distracted.  Like I commented in one of my posts lately, work has been stressful. So, what is it about work that is stressful? Workload stress, I can handle but stress due to certain transgressions by people, I don't handle very well. It is the latter that has been bothering me in the last few days. People trying to take advantage of people and people not playing by the rules.

We could probably rationalise it in so many ways but it almost always boils down to money.  Radix malorum est cupiditas.  The love of money is the root of all evil.  How true.  Many will do so many things just for money, including creating trouble for other people.  It really gets to me.  Well, they don't say it is a dog eat dog world for no reason, right? Right.

Unfortunately, some of us have the thankless task of policing people. It is worse when we have a conscience! The task is not so distasteful if we were able to punish the transgressors, ensuring they would not do the same things again. It is when we are not able to do anything more than issuing warnings that it gets irksome. Imagine a toothless dog guarding a home. You get the idea.

If we keep doing the same things the same way, things will never change. So, what do we do? Make plans to change the way things are done or make plans to do different things. I know we might not have a choice sometimes but if we have a choice, we should remember that we have only one life to live and we owe it to ourselves to live it well.

LMIR: Selling pressure.

LMIR touched a low of 47.5c before closing at 48.5c, the immediate support identified previously.  That this support was breached on high volume is somewhat ominous for the counter. Remember that this support is also where we find the 200dMA.  Closing below this level would indicate a likely change in the longer term trend of the counter.

MFI has formed a lower high, suggesting decreased demand.  OBV shows a clear trend of distribution since accumulation peaked on 27 July.  MACD seems set to do a bearish crossover with the signal line as a red histogram appeared. Could we see more selling down? The possibility exists.

It would seem that I am not the only person disappointed with LMIR's latest set of numbers.

Related post:
LMIR: DPU reduced 20%.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Firm.

Lots of selling down today at 22.5c on what is a high volume day. Of the 4.107m units which changed hands, 2.219m were sold down at 22.5c. The selling down caused the MFI to break its recent uptrend support. The message? Demand has weakened.  However, the OBV is flat which suggests that even though demand has weakened, any selling is well absorbed and there is no visible distribution.

The MAs are all rising but we have a sell signal on the MACD histogram. So, prudence dictates against buying more units in the current time frame at the current price. The downside risk is quite real especially once the counter goes XD.  Of course, volume could suddenly expand if a pension fund or some such investor decides to buy up in the next session at 23c but that's pure speculation and falls in the realm of HA, not TA.

Related post:
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Steady performance.

Tea with AK71: Singapore is going strong.

Have you noticed how packed the malls are these days?  The fastfood joints are packing in the crowd even on weeknights.  Even the Econ Minimart near my place is crowded in the evenings.  What's happening? 

Singapore's economy is powering ahead and would probably take the number one spot as the country with the highest growth rate this year.  It is all very impressive but one wonders how much longer this level of growth could continue for.

The feel good factor has affected everyone for sure and two articles in Yahoo! Singapore, placed side by side, show consumer confidence alive and kicking here.

Serangoon condo sells like hotcakes
By Angela Lim – July 29th, 2010

Units at The Scala, in five residential towers, are between 472 and 2,142 sg ft each and range from one to four-bedroom apartments. They were sold at a whopping average price of S$1,150 per sq ft (psf), setting a new benchmark price for the area.

Demand for the remaining 300 units of the 99-year leasehold project near Lorong Chuan MRT station was so strong that organisers had to resort to balloting to decide who entered the showflats first.

Read article here.

Mad rush for Apple’s iPhone 4
By Ewen Boey – July 30th, 2010

SingTel’s iPhone 4s were available at their store at Marina Bay Sands, while M1 and StarHub had their launches at Paragon and Plaza Singapura respectively.

The M1 queue at Paragon was by far the longest as it snaked around the basement of the shopping mall, while customers at Starhub’s Plaza Singapura had to register first before joining the queue.

Read article here.

Should we start thinking like a contrarian? There is a saying in Chinese which translates to say "in times of peace, think of the potential pitfalls". Enjoy the good times but stay cautious.

Genting SP: Inverted white hammer.

Price touched a high of $1.29 before closing at $1.27, forming an inverted white hammer in the process.  This suggests some weakness: the upmove lacks conviction.  The unimpressive volume confirms this observation.

Although the OBV is still rising, suggesting continuing accumulation, there is some profit taking going on and a stalling demand.  This stall in demand is confirmed by a flat MFI which is bordering on overbought.

Many are expecting Genting SP to report a set of sterling numbers but till then, could we see price softening somewhat to retest support provided by the rising 20dMA? There is a chance and that might be an opportunity for any bulls on Genting SP to accumulate.

Genting Singapore rises to 6-month high on earnings outlook. Genting Singapore Plc climbed to its highest level in six months as better-than-estimated earnings from rival Las Vegas Sands Corp. sparked speculation the company will also report strong earnings.

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Thursday, 29 July 2010

SPH: Rising on low volume.

Price broke out of the many times tested resistance of $4.08 today to close at $4.10.  However, the relatively low volume suggests that the price rose due to a lack of sellers and not because of an abundance of buyers.  So, it throws up the question of sustainability.

The fact that there is continuing accumulation is not in doubt.  The rising OBV confirms this.  The MFI has recaptured its uptrend support, it would seem, and this suggests a return of demand.

Lacklustre volume not withstanding, price could possibly rise further to retest $4.17 without a significant expansion in volume if selling pressure remains absent. Such a rise in price would, however, be very fragile.

NOL: Breakout.

NOL rose to close at its high of the day at $2.08 on significantly higher volume.  With this, it has broken out of the symmetrical triangle observed some time back.  OBV has been somewhat choppy but rising further would indicate increased accumulation.  MFI has formed an uptrend recently and this suggests increased demand. 

The next resistance is at $2.13, the high of 21 Jun which also did a gap fill then. This is a price which market participants are likely to remember. Taking this out convincingly would give an intial target of $2.28 as suggested by the 138.2% Fibo line.

NOL rises on strong shipping outlook. NOL will report its second quarter earnings on Aug 6.

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Thursday, 29 July 2010

CapitaMalls Asia: Shopping spree planned.

"CapitaMalls Asia (CMAL.SI) could spend as much as S$3 billion to develop or buy shopping malls in Singapore, Malaysia and China, by using some borrowings on top of the S$1 billion cash that it has, partly from the proceeds of listing CapitaMalls Malaysia Trusts (CAMA.KL), the local press reported, quoting CapitaMalls' chief executive." Thursday, 29 July 2010, The Edge Singapore.

 
This bit of news sent the share price of CapitaMalls Asia up today to close at $2.10 which is the resistance provided by the flat 50dMA.  The MACD has risen above the signal line in negative territory. MFI shows a sustained demand.  OBV shows accumulation.  Indeed, volume expanded more than three times over the previous session and is the highest since 12 Feb 2010. If the momentum continues, we could see price rising to retest the downtrend resistance which coincides with the declining 100dMA at about $2.16.

China Hongxing: Going higher?

China Hongxing breached 16c resistance and touched 16.5c briefly.  Closing at 16c, it is still resisted by the declining 200dMA.  This is a long term MA and unless volume expands significantly with any upmove, a breakout from the 200dMA is unlikely to be successful.

If we look at the volume, it has been declining as price tried to move higher in the last few sessions. Although not significantly so, it is nonetheless a negative divergence and calls for caution.

OBV is still rising strongly which means accumulation is still ongoing.  MFI and RSI have both risen high into overbought territories. Momentum is still positive but the risk of a pull back is definitely higher now.

Taking some profits off the table would seem like a prudent thing to do and if price goes parabolic in the next session, I would divest more as parabolas are usually unsustainable.

Related post:
China Hongxing: Target hit.

LMIR: DPU reduced 20%.

LMIR announced a DPU of 1.04c payable on 27 August 2010.  This is lower than the 1.2c paid in the last quarter. This is due to a higher realised loss on the foreign exchange forward contract. This reduced the funds available for distribution from S$13.9m in 2Q2009 to S$11.2m in 2Q2010.  So, although the net property income increased 17.1% year on year, DPU has reduced 20% year on year from 1.3c to 1.04c! 

I was under the impression that a foreign exchange forward contract is a hedge which would smooth out any currency fluctuations to help deliver a steady level of funds available for distribution, everything else remaining constant.  It seems that I was mistaken.

The issue that bothers me now is that the management has no intention of reviewing its practice, it seems: "Despite the realised loss in the current quarter, the Trust has entered into the foreign exchange forward contracts as a prudent measure to mitigate its exposure to fluctuations of income denominated in the IDR". See press release here.

Therefore, I would hold off plans to increase exposure to LMIR on possible future price weakness.

Technically, LMIR has been on a uptrend since hitting a low of 42c on 25 May. A combination of its uptrend support and the candlestick supports shows immediate support to be at 48.5c in the next session.

Lippo-Mapletree Indonesia Retail Trust achieves distributable income of $11.2m for 2Q
Thursday, 29 July 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Steady performance.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT has announced a DPU of 0.5376c payable on 16 Sep 2010. This is the same amount paid out in the last quarter and within my expectations since there has not been any significant material changes which would impact earnings. This represents an annual DPU of 2.1504c and an annualised yield of 9.35% based on the last traded price of 23c.

Technically, price is still range bound and capped by the long term resistance of 23c. MFI has turned down and it remains to be seen if it could bounce off its support. 22.5c is now the immediate support.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT delivers 26.1% rise in net property income in 1Q to $7.9m. The trust has five multi-tenanted properties in its portfolio which has an occupancy of 97.2% and a weighted average lease expiry of 4.2 years.

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Thursday, 29 July 2010

What could go wrong?

“The market is overbought and there is a renewed sense of complacency in the marketplace that I think could get shattered pretty quickly,” says the chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff in Toronto.

Posted Jul 28, 2010 11:18am EDT by Peter Gorenstein,Tech Ticker.

"In a country like North Korea, with conventional artillery lined up to literally obliterate Seoul within hours and with direct nuclear capacity and ballistic missile capacity, this is an unprecedented threat from a rogue state," Bremmer says. "Clearly there is a drumbeat in North Korea that they are trying to use to build patriotism and support for their own regime. The question is: how far do they have to go?"

Bremmer goes on to say that the markets have largely ignored South Korea's precarious situation. They should pay attention because Kim Jong-il wields enormous power and no one knows what he is capable of, including his presumed benefactors in China.

"So if this continues to escalate, and so far all indications are that it will, it is going to start creating an awful lot of concern on the ground with some economies that really matter to the world," he says.

Posted Jul 28, 2010 08:00am EDT by Keegan Bales, Tech Ticker.

Genting SP: Doji.

Genting SP formed a doji today, a sign of indecision. Volume shrank today which is a sign that most people are staying sidelined. This stalemate is confirmed by the OBV which has gone flat. The MFI which has been rising and bordered on overbought has declined slightly.

Genting SP might just be taking a breather although with MFI almost overbought and RSI high in overbought territory, one wonders if it is ripe for a correction. Any pull back should see initial support at $1.20, a many times tested resistance level before and should be a strong support.  This, incidentally, is also where we would find the rising 20dMA in the next session.

Genting S’pore off 0.8%; Eyes on 2Q10 results. Next catalyst could be 2Q10 results, due next month, as performance will reflect full quarter of contributions from RWS, which opened in February.
Wednesday, 28 July 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

SPH: Retesting resistance.

SPH closed at $4.08 today, retesting the resistance identified some time back. This is the third time it has hit $4.08 since 16 July. Could it overcome this resistance soon?

Note the falling volume as price tried to move higher.  The MFI has also broken down from its uptrend. Demand is flagging. OBV, however, is rising somewhat after a brief decline, suggesting renewed accumulation but the gradient is gentler now and one could even say it's flat as it is more or less the same level now as it was on 16 July. What am I trying to say? The technicals are relatively weaker now.

However, the 20dMA is still rising strongly and if price manages to stay above the 20dMA in the near term, SPH could be doing a correction using time and the 20dMA could push the price past $4.08 eventually.  Keep an eye on the OBV.  If it stays flat while the MFI declines, it would mean a lack of distribution and this might prevent price from sinking too much even as demand weakens.

Immediate support is at $3.98.  This is where we find the rising 20dMA and it is also a natural candlestick support level.  Good luck to fellow shareholders.

China Hongxing: Target hit.

On 24 June, I wrote "With momentum oscillators turning up strongly, we could possibly see 16c tested." Today, China Hongxing hit the breakout target of 16c.  What next?

The OBV shows a sharp increase in accumulation.  No distribution is taking place yet, it seems.  However, MFI and RSI have both pushed into overbought territories. Also, notice the negative divergence between price and volume. A pull back in the near future is not unrealistic. Immediate support is at 14.5c followed by a stronger support at 13.5c. Remember, it's all about probabilities.

What would I do? I would lock in some gains. If I were to stay vested, it would be with a smaller position at this point in time. Congratulations to anyone who made money from this and if you see fit to contribute to my pocket money fund, thank you too. ;)

Related post:
China Hongxing: Breakout.

Mapletree Log: Acquires properties in Japan.

Mapletree Logistics Trust (a Temasek linked REIT), has shown its confidence in the Japanese economy by acquiring three distribution centres in Japan for a total of JPY13b or S$200m.

"MapletreeLog says it has sufficient financial flexibility and capacity to fund the Acquisition which is expected to be completed by end 3Q 2010. The purchase price and other acquisition costs of the properties will be fully funded by debt, which will bring MapletreeLog’s gearing level to 43.6%, after taking into account all acquisitions announced to date." (The Edge, 28 July 10, 13.23)

Its presentation slides show these acquisitions to be yield accretive. The investment would generate a return of 7.3% per annum.  At the last traded price of 88c, the yield is currently about 6.8%. These Japanese properties are likely to bump up DPU by 5.6% per annum. The properties are also freehold in nature.  No "depreciation". See presentation slides here.

Having said this, with these latest acquisitions, gearing level would be pushed up to 43.6%.  One wonders if Mapletree Log would go to unitholders with hat in hand in the near future or, perhaps, do a share placement.

MapletreeLog acquires 3 properties in Japan for $200m
Wednesday, 28 July 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

 

Alexa

I stumbled upon this today. I was totally blown away.  This is a web information company and it has analyses of all the websites in the world.  Well, it certainly looks that way to me.

I entered my blog's URL in the search bar and a one page analysis appeared.  Amazing!

According to Alexa:
Singaporeanstocksinvestor.blogspot.com has a three-month global Alexa traffic rank of 667,393. Roughly 33% of visits to the site consist of only one pageview (i.e., are bounces). Visitors to the site spend approximately two minutes on each pageview and a total of ten minutes on the site during each visit. Visitors to the site view an average of 2.5 unique pages per day, and Singaporeanstocksinvestor.blogspot.com has been online for at least nine years.

Alexa Traffic Rank - 667,393 

Traffic Rank in SG - 3,808

I don't know about the rest of the information but my blog is not nine years old. So, perhaps, we should not take Alexa too seriously.  Having said this, I am still amazed by this service.  No wonder they say there are no secrets on the internet. We have to be careful of what we do in cyberspace!

Visit Alexa here.

A movie: The Last Airbender.

I have watched the animation series and I have played the game on the Nintendo DS.  It's time to watch the movie!

Healthway Medical: Going down?

What is happening to Healthway Medical's share price, some might ask?  Since 5 July, price has only closed above the declining 20dMA twice. In the last five sessions, share price closed at 18.5c, the immediate support. The question on shareholders' minds is whether this support level will hold.  Will it? I don't know. What an answer, right?  Well, TA cannot tell us things like that. It's always a question of probability.  So, might it?  Let us examine some technical indicators.

The declining 20dMA suggests a short term downtrend.  Price closing at 18.5c for five sessions in a row is bearish but note the volume.  It has been thinning as price declined.  A low volume pull back?  Good for the bulls. The MFI has been forming higher lows and the OBV has declined ever so slightly.  Both indicators suggest that there is some underlying support. Again, good for the bulls.  So, 18.5c immediate support might hold.

What if 18.5c breaks?  Well, the longer term MAs are still rising.  The 50dMA should provide some support at 18c in case 18.5c cracks.  Unless there is a significant expansion in volume with any selling down, the 100dMA which is currently at 17c is unlikely to be tested as a support in the immediate future.

Related post:
Charts in brief: 16 Jul 10 (Part 2).

STI gains 0.4% to 2,979.38 at closing. Shares on the measure trade at 14.4 times estimated earnings, compared with about 17.5 times at the beginning of the year, according to Bloomberg data.
Tuesday, 27 July 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Charts in brief: 26 Jul 10.

Genting SP: Volume expanded today as price closed at $1.24.  The MACD seems poised to do a bullish crossover with the signal line. Momentum is looking good and one wonders if $1.20 is now resistance turned support. Needs confirmation. However, if one looks at going above $1.20 as a breakout, this is a very "quiet" breakout with rather modest volume. Is it durable?

Genting S’pore up on Goldman upgrade: Goldman Sachs lifted its target price for Genting to $1.15 from $0.79, due to better-than-expected profits from its new casino resort in Singapore, Resort World Sentosa.
Monday, 26 July 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

CapitaMalls Asia:  Downtrend intact with today's black candle. OBV has formed a lower high, suggesting ongoing distribution activity. The descending 20dMA is preventing further gains. We could be seeing the beginnings of a descending triangle pattern if the downward pressure continues. Immediate resistance at $2.06 and immediate support at $2.02.

FSL Trust: Results were announced today with 2Q FY10 DPU at US0.95¢.  Volume rose today and there was much selling down of its units.  In spite of this, price remained unchanged at 42c.  This is a sign of strength as it means staying above the 50dMA.  MFI continues to rise, suggesting increased demand.  OBV is rising, suggesting continuing accumulation. There is some underlying support for this counter.  20dMA continues to rise and we might be in for a golden cross with the 50dMA soon.

First Ship Lease Trust to distribute US0.95¢ per unit for 2QFY10, 61% lower y-o-y
Monday, 26 July 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

SPH: The MFI has broken its uptrend support, suggesting a weakening demand. This coupled with the MACD set to do a bearish crossover with the signal line, a retracement to the 20dMA cannot be ruled out.  This is currently at $3.95 which is also an important candlestick resistance turned support. Volume has been reducing as price pulled back.  This is good news for bulls.  Support at $4.00 seems shaky and if this goes, I would keep an eye on $3.95 to see if it holds up as the next support.

STI drops 0.2% to 2,966.99 at closing
Monday, 26 July 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Some views from Marc and Jim.

Marc Faber thinks that the Fed would embark on more quantitative easing (aka print more money) in September or October:



Jim Rogers says to buy silver as it is 70% below its all time high:



Jim Rogers also mentioned that sugar is a good investment because a lot of it is being used in the production of alternative fuel.  Now, with the US limiting offshore drilling for crude oil, shortages might develop and that could mean higher crude oil prices in future.  I would keep an eye on CPO price which has been recovering strongly lately.  That affects CPO counters like Golden Agriculture.

Related posts:
Gold or silver?
Why Golden Agriculture?

Do this if you want a good career and life!

(Less attractive people make US$230,000 lesser over their lifetime. About 10,000 people a month Google "Am I ugly?")
UPDATED (2 Jan 17):
AK is very consistent and he is consistently kaypoh. So, what triggered this update to a blog penned in 2010? I saw this advertisement:

Read my blog and do this? I will slap you! 
Know someone who wants to do this? Slap!

Hairy and ladies like them what.
--------------------------
I am reading Newsweek (26 July issue) and they have an article titled "The Beauty Advantage". The topic on looks is, of course, quite common and it is something I have heard talked about before but it is still an eye opener to be reading it in print, not in Her World or Cleo, but in Newsweek.  

In case you are wondering, yes, I have flipped through Her World and Cleo before.  I am sure I am not the only guy who has done it before... ahem.

BEAUTY CAN AFFECT YOUR JOB, YOUR CAREER, YOUR LIFE.  

Here are some numbers:

61% of hiring managers surveyed by Newsweek said it's advantageous for a woman to show off her figure in the workplace.

57% of corporate managers said landing a job is harder for an unattractive candidate.

About 60% of overweight women and 40% of overweight men said they've experienced employment discrimination.

59% of hiring managers said they'd advise job candidates to spend as much money on looks as on their resume.

I remember reading somewhere when I was in my late teens that models could make upwards of $10,000 a month! 

I remember Henry Tee, who was a young model and aspiring TV actor then, being reported as making $5,000 a month!  That's a lot of money twenty years ago (and is still a lot of money now).  

Then, I wondered why I wasn't born with good looks. If I was born with good looks, I could make lots of money just by smiling for cameras. Sigh. So, what's new. Life is unfair, isn't it?

If you look at the numbers above, overweight women have it really bad.  So, it's not just weightism working here, it's also sexism!  

An overweight man is perceived to be less unattractive (and probably more productive) compared to an overweight woman? Sheesh. 

I have the good fortune of knowing some pretty large ladies who are very efficient workers.  I have also seen some really pretty ladies who spent a lot of time looking good and, er, just looked good.

Anyway, like they say, this is an imperfect world. 

I should count my blessings. I mean, I could be an overweight woman and be really discriminated against, right?

Read Newsweek article online: 
The beauty advantage.

A movie: Inception.

Went to the movies today and at the end of it, I told my friend whom I watched the movie with that it has been a long time since I watched a movie that required some effort to understand. Once I understood the theory which was the backbone of the movie, I enjoyed it.  5 minutes in the real world would yield 60 minutes in the dream world.  So, if we dreamt while we slept for 8 hours, imagine how much time that would give us in the dream world.  The movie I am talking about is "Inception".

It gets weirder.  Dreaming within a dream would give us even more time in a deeper dream world.  A dream within a dream within a dream could give us decades in an even deeper dream world, allowing much more time to do all the things we ever wanted to do.  Of course, these things would be accomplished in our dreams and not in the real world.  That gives a twist to the saying: "In your dreams!", does it not?

This also reminds me of a saying by Zhuang Zi, "Was I a man dreaming that I was a butterfly or was I a butterfly dreaming that I was a man?"

All said, it is nice to have dreams.  Just watch out for the nightmares.

Official website: Inception.

Charts in brief: 23 Jul 10.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: I was at a friend's house warming and we talked about the stock market a bit and his broker said that this REIT has a very low market capitalisation.  So, it was not on his radar screen.  Actually, I like the sound of that because it would give me more time to accumulate at lower prices.  However, with recent increased accumulation activity as suggested by the OBV's direction, I suspect more are taking note of this REIT's high yield, large discount to NAV and relatively low gearing.  Looking at the candlesticks, it seems that a new support level has been established at 22c in the near term.  Is this sustainable? With all the MAs rising, it might be. The MFI broke out of its downtrend decisively four sessions ago which signals a return of demand. Any further upmove in price would see a retest of the resistance at 23c.

Genting SP: Price has finally closed above $1.20 in the last session.  At $1.21, could it go higher? From 21 June, when price first touched a high of $1.21, volume has been shrinking as intraday price range became narrower and narrower. Volume is the fuel that drives rallies.  Without any expansion in volume in a move up in price, bulls do have cause to worry. It is encouraging that the MFI has moved out of resistance and this shows a return of demand.  However, OBV is flattish which suggests that there is a stalemate between accumulation and distribution despite a return of demand.  Things still look dicey and I would keep an eye on the support provided by the 20dMA which is currently at $1.18.

STI +0.4% but upside limited; 2,984 resistance
Friday, 23 July 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

FSL Trust: Golden cross?

FSL Trust formed a white candle in the last session with a respectable expansion in volume. The 20dMA continues rising and seems on track to form a golden cross with the 50dMA in the near future. Although we do not see a buy signal on the MACD histogram, the MACD is, nonetheless, rising in positive territory. The MFI has been rising which suggests a rising demand.  The OBV is rising again which suggests continual accumulation.

If price were to stay at 42c in the next session or, in fact, go higher, the resistance provided by the 50dMA would be taken out.  The next target is then 43.5c if price does a gap fill which it probably would.  Beyond that, a retest of the high of early June at 46c is next.

Related post:
FSL Trust: The skies are clearing up.

China Hongxing: Breakout.

The last time I wrote about China Hongxing was on 3 July. At that time, there were still mixed signals.

On Thursday, two sessions ago, there was a buy signal on the MACD histogram and the MFI broke out of its downtrend. Volume expanded 10 times in the last session as price hit a high of 14.5c.  With this, China Hongxing broke out of multiple resistance levels and confirmed the buy signal on the MACD histogram. 11.5c has been established as the bottom while the next resistance is at 16c, as provided by the 200dMA. With momentum oscillators turning up strongly, we could possibly see 16c tested.  Congratulations to those who took the risk to buy some earlier on but bear in mind that it is still trading below the 200dMA and that the longer term trend is still down.

Related post:
China Hongxing: Bottoming?

Tea with AK71: Money well spent.

My recent purchase of a Samsung HD1080p 32" LED TV, a Sony Blu Ray player and a Pioneer sound system surprised quite a few friends and even my family members.  Considering that my last TV was a Chimei 26" LCD HD Ready TV bought three years ago at $688 in Carrefour, you can imagine why. Have I become extravagant?  I hardly think so.

Three years ago, it would have easily cost two times of $688 to get a 26" LCD HD Ready TV from Sharp or Sony.  I decided I did not need something branded then and settled for Chimei which served me quite well in the last three years.  Some friends commented that it was too small for my living room and some said the definition was poor.  Most just went "What is a Chimei?" and some even made puns out of the name.  Terrible. However, I thought it was OK.  I mean I had no problem with news, documentaries and DVDs on my Chimei.  Then, why change?

I saw what the LED TV was capable of delivering during one of my visits to the malls and  I also found the Samsung aesthetically pleasing compared to the Chimei.  You don't find these arguments convincing, do you?  If you are a regular reader of my blog or if you know me very well, yes, you would not be convinced.  The most important reason was that the price was not even two times of $688!  Great technology at a great price!  It is never a question of affordability.  It is always a question of value of money. I decided to pamper myself which is something I rarely do.

So far, everyone who has seen my new TV only had good things to say about it.  I am only human and it feels good to have positive reinforcement from others.  Things are so different from those Chimei days.  This is a positive spinoff that I did not anticipate.

To some people, it seems that I have changed. Well, maybe a little.  I don't think I have changed much.  I am still the pragmatic me but I have to agree that I have become less tight fisted in the last one year. 

I told a friend who visited recently that watching Blu Ray programs is such a joy.  Images and sounds are crystal clear on the new TV. Sometimes, I would just switch it on, watch for about ten minutes, switch it off and go to sleep, feeling happy. Money spent on anything which contributes to a general sense of well-being and happiness has to be money well spent, don't you think?

As an aside, my sister is going to shave her head bald to help some cancer stricken children and I donated some money to the cause in a show of support.  It's a worthy cause, after all.  To find out more, please visit: Hair for Hope 2010. This is definitely money well spent.

Related post:
Money management: Needs and wants.

CapitaMalls Asia: Uptrend broken.

The longer term downtrend which was broken briefly for four sessions in late June is once again in play.  A series of rallies which started after the price hit a low of $1.91 on 7 May has come to an end.

On 16 July, charting revealed that "Prices are testing the support provided by the third fan line.  The uptrend has weakened from the initial fan line and it now looks exhausted. OBV shows clear distribution since price peaked on 23 Jun. From Monday to Thursday, volume expanded as price dropped.  Today, volume is lower and this is probably in response to the slightly oversold condition as suggested by the MFI.  Immediate support at $2.04 and immediate resistance at $2.10.  Closing below $2.04 in the next session would break the uptrend support and the price is likely to move lower from there."

Today, the support provided by the third fan line was compromised with price opening at $2.04 and closing at $2.02.  Volume expanded in the last two sessions as the price fell. MACD continues to fall in negative territory and OBV continues its decline, suggesting greater distribution than accumulation. However, MFI has risen out of the oversold territory. This suggests that there is still some demand and forms a positive divergence with price. This might limit somewhat the decline in price.

Could this decline below the third fan line possibly be a whipsaw to shake out the weaker long holders? It might be. Or could we see the previous low of $1.91 tested again?  If price continues to decline, Fibo lines suggests that this is quite possible. This counter is still looking for a bottom, it would seem.

Charts in brief: 20 Jul 10.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Volume expanded strongly today as price closed at a high of 22.5c. This move breaks it out of a 0.5c trading range which started in early June. The MFI has broken out of its downtrend, suggesting a return of demand.  Sell signal on the MACD histogram negated as the MACD continues to rise in positive territory above the signal line. The OBV has moved to a new high, suggesting more accumulation than distribution has been going on in recent times. Whether price could break out of the bigger trading range of 20c to 23c remains to be seen. When all the sellers are done selling and buyers want a piece of the action, the only direction would be up.  The fundamentals are strong and the technicals are seemingly benign.  Let's see if the momentum keeps up.

FSL Trust: Price went above the resistance provided by the 50dMA briefly. Closing at 42c is still at resistance provided by the same MA. MACD has just crossed into positive territory. MFI continues to rise. These suggest a return of positive momentum and demand. However, the OBV is flat which suggests a stalemate between accumulation and distribution. Demand is rising but accumulation is not keeping pace which means that there is some selling pressure.  Without an expansion in volume with an upmove in price, the sellers are unlikely to be taken out. With the RSI high in overbought territory, suggesting that price has moved upwards too quickly, the possibility of a slow down or pullback cannot be ruled out. Immediate support remains at 40c while breaking out of 42c resistance could see price do a gap fill at 43.5c and, perhaps, test the lower high of 46c too.

Golden Agriculture: Touched 58.5c, the resistance identified last Friday. Volume shrank for two sessions in a row as price rose. So, price is rising from a lack of sellers, not an abundance of buyers. MFI and OBV continue rising, suggesting rising demand and accumulation.  So, we could perhaps see price moving higher.  If 58.5c is taken out, the next resistance is at 60c.  The MFI nears overbought territory and one wonders if there is much more left to this rally.  This is a valid concern when we see that the RSI is already in overbought territory.  Any pullback would see immediate support at 55c, as provided by the 100dMA.

K-REIT: Uptrend intact.

K-REIT's uptrend is intact with a 1c fall in price from the previous session to $1.21. That price closed at the high of the day is encouraging. MFI continues to trend up which suggests sustained demand.  However, it is nearing overbought and we might see the rise in price slowing or, perhaps, we might see a slight pullback to the 20dMA which approximates the uptrend support. In case of a pullback, support is at $1.15.

What makes $1.22 different from $1.22 in January?  When $1.22 was hit in January, the MAs were farther apart from each other compared to what is observed now. Now, the MAs are closer to each other, more tightly knit, if you like. Such an arrangement is likely to limit volatility and provides a firmer platform for any further upmove in price.  All the MAs are rising and the 50dMA seems poised for a golden cross with the 100dMA.

Volume has been stronger on up days compared to down days and if this persists, price could break $1.22 sooner than later.

K‐REIT Asia will distribute to Unitholders 2.97 cents per unit on Aug 26.

K‐REIT Asia achieves $22m in distributable income for 2Q
Monday, 19 July 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore