Ever since the CPFB introduced a colorful pie chart of our CPF savings a few years ago, I would look forward to mine every year like a teena...
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One of my favourite possessions is my wallet! I truly can't live without it! This was bought with money from my first pay cheque 15 years ago. It is a Heritage brand genuine leather wallet made in W. Germany and cost slightly more than $100 then. I remember I got it from Metro in Marina Square. The leather is really nice and soft. Good quality stuff. I can't find this brand anymore in Singapore. If you know where to get it, let me know. I would like to standby a replacement wallet, just in case.
I was chatting in LP's cbox and I cannot remember how the conversation went but I talked about some of my stuff which is really old but still in use.
I mentioned that I have a T-shirt which I bought in Secondary 2 which I am still wearing today.
It is very comfortable and I even wear it out sometimes.
If we do our sums quickly, this shirt is 26 years old this year!
I went to my favourite malls again today. Parked at MBLM. Ate at Din Tai Fung, got complimentary parking for 4 hours and took a walk to MBS. A well planned outing is a happy outing.
Some readers would remember that I announced a fair value of 80c per unit for First REIT. This was on 1 Dec 10. In that blog post, I made the following comments and also did some calculations:
In a blog post many moons ago, I asked if gambling was a bad thing. In that post, I said "From a money management standpoint once more, if we budget a small sum of money for entertainment and classify gambling as one form of entertainment, as long as we stay within what is budgeted, gambling would not become financially crippling and it might even be rewarding. The Chinese people have a saying, "mai ge xi wang", or "buying a hope". This, I feel, is not a bad thing." Read blog post here.
Although volume was lower than the previous session, price managed to overcome both resistance levels at $1.88 and $1.90. We could see the resistance provided by the descending 50dMA at $1.93 challenged next. Indeed, it could be argued at price is now at resistance provided by a trendline resistance at $1.92. Overcoming this resistance could see a retest of $1.97, the high of 17 Jan.
Golden Agriculture enjoyed a white candle day as price traded below the resistance provided by the 100dMA for most of the day. This white candle could be most misleading. In the previous session, although a black candle was formed, price closed at the 100dMA which acted as support.
The fanfare that pushed up the share price of Raffles Education to touch a many months high of 35c came suddenly and provided the counter with a sugar rush which is now dissipating. The trendline support was broken four sessions ago and it now remains to be seen if the gentler trendline support below the 20dMA would be tested next. This is at 30c.
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT went XD today. Price closed at 21c but if we look at the trade summary, 6,459 lots were bought up at 21.5c while only 197 lots were sold down at 21c. I believe that support is strong for this counter at 21c. Remember that 21c is also where we find the rising 200dMA, a longer term MA.
I am somewhat late in doing this. Somehow, it slipped my mind. Someone reminded me and, well, this is the report of how my blog did last year as promised.
Not long after I started this blog in December 2009, I signed up with Google AdSense to serve ads in the hope of making some pocket money on the side. A few months later, I took down all the ad spaces. This was after hearing rather negative stuff about bloggers being "banned" with little chance of being reinstated. I didn't want to have the same experience. Could be quite depressing, I thought.
However, a couple of months ago, while chatting with a fellow blogger, I was advised to just put up the ad spaces for AdSense again and if I did get banned, then, too bad for me. If I got paid, it would be a bonus. Mentally prepared thus, I ventured forth with AdSense once more.
Today, as I was sorting through four days worth of mail, I found a cheque from Adsense! My first cheque from AdSense! It added some cheer to a wet Sunday. :)
What does a bundle of new notes look like? More specifically, what does a bundle of new S$2 notes worth a total of S$2,000 look like? Here are a few photos taken from different angles:
Back in Singapore. So nice to be back home! Although I am still feeling a bit unwell from the trip, I am sure I will be OK after a day or two. If I had stayed another day or two in Hong Kong, I would have been utterly miserable. It's the weather, I'm sure. I will have a blog post on this trip in my Travel Photos and Videos blog later this evening or tomorrow. Look out for it. ;)
A week ago, I said that "We could very well see the support provided by the 100dMA tested at 70c in the next session. If it should break, next support could be found at 66c where the rising 200dEMA would be approximating soon. The 200dEMA, being a long term MA, should be able to provide a much stronger support in case of further decline in price."
Feeling somewhat under the weather, I think the very cold and dry weather here is getting to me. No drinking session for me. I came back to the hotel, took a warm shower, drank herbal tea I bought from a convenience store and I am feeling so sleepy now. Looking forward to going back to tropical Singapore early tomorrow.
In a quick post last evening, I mentioned that CapitaMalls Asia's share price "closed below the trendline support today at $1.89. I would not advise buying more at this price since the uptrend is compromised. I have turned cautious."
If I were not informed by TA, I could have bought more as price plunged today. Look at the high volume. I believe that the price weakness has brought out some shortists.
Price closed below the trendline support today at $1.89. I would not advise buying more at this price since the uptrend is compromised. I have turned cautious. However, notice that the trading volume is, once again, very thin on a black candle day. It looks to me to be a continuation of a low volume pull back pattern.
I was vested in E-pure when it was 20c a share thereabouts. This was back in early 2009.
I was convinced that China's drive to keep its economy humming in the wake of the Lehman Brothers crisis would benefit the water infrastructure businesses.
I was also heavily vested in Hyflux Water Trust at that time from 30c for the same reason.
Read related blog post here.
E-pure was a Chinese company and was likely to be favored over Hyflux in China while Hyflux Water Trust was a business trust with zero gearing treating water for Chinese industrial estates and had a yield of about 17% at a unit price of 30c.
I divested E-pure completely by the time it neared 60c a share and watched dumbfounded as the share price went on to form new highs, almost doubling from my sell price of close to 60c.
Hyflux Water Trust was, of course, privatised a few months ago.
Read related blog post here.
I have been wondering if I should re-invest in E-pure which has been renamed SoundGlobal for some time now.
It remained on my watchlist but I simply refused to buy any of its shares at prices higher than 60c.
That's just the memory effect working and, in this case, it seems to have paid off. Related post here.
I just told myself that if the price did not come down to more reasonable levels, there are always other investments out there.
CapitaMalls Asia broke the trendline support today with price reaching $1.89 at one point before pushing back up above the trendline at $1.91 where it closed. For those who have been following my analyses so far, the question is how are things looking now?
I was just having a chat with Nick in LP's cbox not so long ago regarding REITs and their fair values. Nick mentioned that REITs with high gearing have little growth prospects and therefore will not see their unit price go up (i.e. yield will not compress). I think he mentioned that the stock market is rather efficient when it comes to REITs.
In theory, I agree with Nick. However, I mentioned that it is hard to be sure since how much a REIT should trade at is very often a matter of sentiments, this is the same with stocks. Certain REITs are small and are not covered by analysts. They could also be too small to interest institutional investors. Their unit prices could continue to languish even if they provide decent yields with relatively safe gearing. Certain REITs are obviously overvalued and give very low yields with relatively high gearing but they continue to enjoy much attention. For example, I would not bother buying into CMT. The yield is so unattractive.
Nick used Suntec REIT as an example of a REIT with high gearing and therefore it did not see its yield compress much. However, the last session saw Suntec REIT's unit price close at a high of $1.61, forming a wickless white candle, on the back of heavy volume. Yield is compressing and quite significantly too. The last time this REIT was at $1.61 was in Jun 2008!
My first night on a working trip in Hong Kong and I am having trouble sleeping although I was feeling quite tired earlier. So, I went to the reception and purchased a card which allows me to have internet access for 3 hours for a fee of HK$40. Quite reasonable, I think.
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CapitaMalls Asia closed at $1.90 support today on reduced volume. My overnight BUY queue at $1.90 was filled. Lowering volume as share price consolidates at support. Nice.
A topic on interest rates seems serious enough. Why have I put it under "Tea with AK71"? Well, it is because I want to talk about it in a more informal tone. It gives me an excuse to ramble and not be too careful in the way I write.
In the last one year, many have been talking about interest rates and how the low interest rates won't last and would go up in time. It seems to be a relatively safe prediction and, in general, I agree but when would it go up and by how much? That's the difficult question.
What goes up must come down one day and what is down would go up too. It is how things in the world achieve equilibrium. There could be exceptions but let's ignore these to keep this chat going.
I might have mentioned this in my blog before. I cannot remember. Think of China and what they are doing. They have increased interest rate more than once in the last few months due to inflationary pressures. Is increasing interest rates the only way to fight inflation? Well, there are many tools available and interest rate is just one tool. Like all tools, it has its limitations.
China has also increased bank reserves requirement in an attempt to reduce money supply. Interest rate and money supply are useful to a point in controlling inflation which are domestically created. They have little impact on exogenous factors.
The Chinese have a huge problem with inflation and much of that is imported. Remember that only a third of the Chinese economy is driven by domestic consumption. This is very different from Indonesia's 60%. How much of the inflationary pressure in China is due to rampant domestic over-consumption, therefore?
Raising interest rates won't help much and could make things worse. The more effective way to reign in inflation is what the Singapore government did: allow its currency to appreciate. Singapore too has a small domestic economy. The Chinese know that they have to let the RMB appreciate and they are just delaying the move.
The RMB is way undervalued and it is the main culprit in causing rampart inflation in China as the booming Chinese economy is heavily reliant on many imports just to keep its industries humming along. Its energy needs is just one such example.
The Singapore government does not use interest rate to control inflation. It uses the Singapore Dollar which floats against a basket of currencies of its major trading partners. If the MAS should hike interest rates (which it can't) to combat inflation, it could have a bigger problem on hand. Why?
Many Asian countries already have a problem of hot money flowing in, money looking for better returns. This money is usually from developed countries which are doing quantitative easing in the hope of jump starting or keeping their economy above water. In these countries, interest rates are more likely than not close to zero.
Money will go to where it is treated best and so, although the interest rates are pretty low in Singapore, a lot of money still find its way to our small island. For example, a 0.8% interest rate plus the prospect of a 5% appreciation against its country of origin is very attractive for such funds.
The inflows have to be put to productive use and lenders (banks) will mostly offer relatively low interest rates to entice borrowers. More cheap debt and inflation continues. So, combating inflation is not a simple matter of increasing interest rates. If only it was that simple.
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