Tea with Matthew Seah: POSB Invest-Saver Account.

POSB's newly launched Invest-Saver Account is a Regular Savings Plan that allows us to invest via a GIRO arrangement on a monthly basis.

No securities trading account or CDP account is required. 

All we need is a savings or current account with POSB.

It charges a flat fee of 1% per transaction.

For more information, go to:
POSB Invest-Save Account.
NEW LINK:  HERE.





My take? 

In a nutshell:

If we are putting aside between $100 to $500 a month, POSB Invest-Saver is a good choice.

If we are putting aside more than $500 a month, OCBC Blue Chip Investment Plan is a better choice.





See:
OCBC Blue Chip Investment Plan.

How much will my tea break and lunch cost tomorrow?

This is an impromptu blog post in response to a comment by a reader, Serendib, in an earlier blog post: here.

That is how much my tea break and lunch will cost tomorrow. Yup, a grand total of $1.00. Actually, it will be less because I will get a 5% rebate from the SMRT Pay Wave VISA and I will also get a rebate from being a NTUC CO-OP shareholder. If you can see me now, I am smiling.

Tea to be provided by the office pantry, of course.

I am quite looking forward to having this tomorrow. In fact, I am tempted to eat one now but I shall resist! Yum, yum.

Tax paid with Citibank Dividend Card.

It is a once a year affair. Got to pay Road Tax for my car:

I paid at an AXS machine this evening and was pleasantly surprised to find that I had a choice of paying with a DBS or a Citibank credit card too.

So, I paid with my Citibank Dividend Card and I guess tonight's dinner at the food court was free! That makes me happy!

I used to NETS it using my POSB ATM card. Things have changed for the better.

NeraTel: A voluminous day of fear.

There is lots of fear in the air for some people trading the stock of NeraTel today. I won't be surprised if some people lost money as well. Why? A long black candle was formed on the back of relatively high volume. There must have been some panic selling as share price touched a low of 74.5c before closing at 76.5c.

However, this could be good news for some. Who? For people who have been waiting to buy into NeraTel because of its strong fundamentals and attractive dividend, of course.

The question on their minds might be whether it is the best time to buy now?

Well, if we remove the word "best" from the question, then, it becomes easier to find an answer. Linked to this, ask what is our motivation for investing in NeraTel.

My primary motivation for investing in NeraTel is for income. It was not to trade the stock. However, with the rapid and significant rise in the share price, I turned partial trader by reducing my long position in the stock last week.

As my primary motivation for investing in NeraTel is unchanged, the dramatic pull back in share price is a boon for me as I bought back what I sold recently. This means that the planned passive income from NeraTel's dividends in my portfolio is now restored.

Of course, I received a nice little bonus from trading around the investment as well. Quite happy to get some pocket money from Mr. Market, for sure.

Next question, will I increase the size of my long position in NeraTel at current prices?

Well, I think it is now common knowledge what NeraTel's full potential is. Apart from impressive growth potential, it is also a net cash company with a recurring income base. So, it is a stock anyone investing for income and growth would be attracted to. For anyone who is not in the know, I have provided links at the end of this blog for further reading.

Technically, a weak immediate support is at 76c. This is followed by the rising 20dMA which approximates 73c today. Failure of the support provided by the rising 20dMA to hold means a possible decline in share price to 66c.

Fundamentally, at 66c, we are looking at a PER of less than 10x once more and an estimated dividend yield of 6.06%. So, expectation for strong support at that price is not premised only on the technical picture but also on more attractive numbers.

I will be adding to my long position if supports are tested.

Related posts:
1. NeraTel: Trading around an investment.
2. NeraTel: A very good investment.

Tea with AK71: Wah! Your car is SO big!

Some people drive big cars:

So big that a single parking lot is not enough.

The inconsiderate, selfish and idiotic people like this driver are why the world is in such a mess!

KNS!

Marco Polo Marine: Bracing news from Indonesia.

Some news from Marco Polo Marine's subsidiary, PT Pelayaran Nasional Bina Buana Raya Tbk:

1. They are seeking to purchase another new AHTS before the end of 2013. I like this because this will allow them to capitalise on the higher rates in Indonesia more rapidly.

2. The management is projecting at least a double digit growth in revenue and profits in 2013!

Things are looking pretty good and the Indonesian growth story is cruising ahead at full steam.

Would I buy more of Marco Polo Marine's stock?

If Mr. Market is willing to sell to me cheaply again, why not?

Related post:
Which stocks have I been accumulating in June 2013?

Reference:
RESUME HASIL PAPARAN PUBLIK TAHUNAN

OUE Hospitality Trust: Considerations and comparisons.

Some might be more interested in OUE Hospitality Trust than SPH Trust because the distribution yield the former has promised is higher at 7.46% compared to the latter's 5.79%. 

Although the two are not strictly comparable since they are holding different types of real estate, let us look past that for now and just concentrate on the numbers to see which one is a better deal.

Mandarin Hotel.

OUE Hospitality Trust is being offered at a small discount to NAV while SPH REIT is being offered at a small premium to NAV. Oh, I like a discount!

OUE Hospitality Trust is going to have a gearing level of some 32.8% while SPH REIT's gearing level is 27.3%. Oh, I like SPH REIT more now because its gearing level is lower.

Leverage, of course, makes it harder to see the underlying yield. If we were to remove leverage and assume that there was none, we see that OUE Hospitality Trust approximately yields 5.62% while SPH REIT yields 4.55%. The former still gives us 1.1% more a year!

SPH REIT's Clementi Mall.

OUE Hospitality Trust has 2 properties and apparently they have 44 years left to their leases. SPH REIT has 2 properties too. The Paragon will have a fresh 99 years lease while Clementi Mall has a few years lesser than that. I like longer leases, for sure.

So, although OUE Hospitality Trust is able to generate 1.1% more return per year compared to SPH REIT, the life of its assets is less than half of SPH REIT's, assuming the status quo is maintained.

Ariake Sunroute Hotel

OUE Hospitality Trust is a stapled security and not a REIT per se. I have blogged about Ascendas Hospitality Trust before which is also a stapled security. For anyone who might want to find out more about this, I have provided the link at the end of this blog.

Like OUE Hospitality Trust, Ascendas Hospitality Trust also had its IPO priced at 88c.

Ascendas Hospitality Trust last traded at 85.5c which is still at a slight premium to its NAV. At 85.5c, it has an estimated distribution yield of 8.57% and a gearing level of about 35%. 90% of its assets are in Australia and Japan. These are freehold in nature!

AK is just talking to himself.


Related posts:
1. Ascendas Hospitality Trust.
2. SPH or SPH REIT?

Facebook: An alternative to real life.

I became active in Facebook only very recently and I have been under a spell since! It is terribly addictive and, honestly, this scares me.

I still remember when older folks were complaining that people rather talked on the phone instead of meeting up in person years ago. Then, a few years ago, they complained that people would rather send text messages on their phones rather than talk to people on the phone.

Now, some might be at a loss when I say the physical world is going to be a lesser reality compared to the online world for many people, well, if it has not happened already! The culprit? Facebook!

Roughly, there are more than 7.1 billion people in this world and Facebook has 1.1 billion users! Just 3 years ago, Facebook had less than half the number of current users!

Facebook has more than doubled the number of users in just 3 years while world population is estimated to have grown only 1.1% per annum. Imagine a business with a penetration rate of 14.29% globally and growing!

We don't have to be very good at math to guess that years into the future, almost everyone will be a Facebook user.

Facebook is not an alternative to real life! It is real life for many people and, I suspect, soon it will be so for all!

Related post:
Really follow AK71 on Facebook.

To rent or to buy: Rule of 15.

I get the feeling that most of us don't like the idea of renting a place to stay in Singapore. Why pay rent and not own the place? We are helping the landlord pay his mortgage on the property!





However, a question then is what if we were to buy our home only to find out that we bought it at a price too high? That has happened to many people before, I am sure. 

Then, in such an instance, the person who chose to rent instead of buying would have done better.

How not to pay a price too high?

I am sure that there are many things to consider but there is a nice little rule that can make it easier for us to make a decision on whether to rent or to buy.

"Rule of 15" says that if we could buy a home at a price that is 15 times or less the annual rent a similar property would fetch in the area, it makes more sense to buy than to rent.

So, if a two bedroom condominium is selling for $1.5m and the gross annual rent a similar property in the same area is $60k, it makes more sense to rent than to buy. Annual rent of $60k x 15 years = $900k.





We can also use this simple rule of thumb to help decide if we would like to put up a property for sale.

If we look at it in terms of rental yield, this rule is basically saying that if the gross rental yield of a property is 6.66% or higher, it makes sense to buy and if it is lower, it makes sense to rent.

For a while now, we see people buying real estate in Singapore and being quite happy with rental yields of 2+% to 3+%. This is acceptable really only because of the abnormally low interest rate environment. It won't last.





The "Rule of 15" is a rough gauge but it is a sensible one as it suggests that a 6.66% gross yield, whether we are owner occupiers or real estate investors, is what we should be looking for to survive more normalised (i.e. higher) interest rates in future.

Definitely, it does not take in all factors which are necessary for consideration but it is a nice preliminary check on whether we should buy or rent a home.

Related post:
Leverage up and buy investment properties.

Cheong arh! No, I am not referring to the stock market.

I just saw this on YouTube. Unbelievable!





Minions from Despicable Me are all the rage at McDonald's. I think people who didn't get their Hello Kitty are having their revenge by going after the Minions instead.

Imagine people being that excited about attaining financial freedom instead! Oi! Queue up hor.

These people are crazy over us?

Wahahahaha! Banana & potato!

Related post:
McDonald's Singing Bone Hello Kitty.

Rich gets richer and poor gets poorer.

Point #1

Someone might have more money than another. He is simply richer. It doesn't mean that he is rich.

Someone might have less money than another. He is simply poorer. It doesn't mean that he is poor.


Compared to the needy, most of us are very fortunate.

Point #2

Instead of lamenting how some people are getting richer, try to understand what they are doing to become richer. Unless seriously disadvantaged, anyone can become richer.

If we want it badly enough, we will make it happen!

只要功夫深，铁杆磨成针.

Related post:
The very first step to becoming richer!

Sabana REIT: 2Q 2013 2.4c DPU.

Sabana REIT has declared a DPU of 2.4c and will go XD on 23 July. Unit holders will be paid on 29 August.

The numbers are nothing out of the ordinary:

NAV/share: $1.06

Gearing: 37.1%

Interest cover ratio: 5.1x

Occupancy: 100%

Some people wonder why Sabana REIT is trading with such a high distribution yield. It is nearly 8%.

Well, there are many possible reasons but one reason is probably because 5 of its master leases are expiring in November this year and this is something I have blogged about since the second half of last year.

In the latest report, the management revealed that 1 of the master leases will be renewed while the other 4 are still undergoing negotiations. It has been revealed that in the event these 4 master leases are not renewed, the REIT will see a 7.3% vacancy rate. This would impact income available for distribution negatively even if temporarily.

As asking rents of industrial properties have risen over the last 3 years, I expect Sabana REIT to renew these leases with positive rental reversions if they should be successful in securing renewals. Failure to secure renewals would mean some temporary loss of income but it could be a good thing as the asking rents could be scaled higher compared to that of a master lease.

See presentation slides: here.

ASSI: 10 quarterly reports with 1 blog post.

One of the things I used to do which I stopped more than two years ago was to keep track of how ASSI was doing in terms of visitor numbers and pageviews. Someone told me back then that it was as if ASSI was a company and I was reporting to shareholders on its performance. Guess what? The last time I did such a report was on 2 April 2011!

I guess I am pretty late in presenting the results of the last 10 quarters. Yes, I know. If I were the CEO of a registered company, I would be in so much trouble. Thank goodness I am not.

Click to enlarge.

You know it is like how we live with someone in the same flat for a couple of years and we can't really tell if the person has changed in appearance? It takes someone who has not seen the person for quite a while to be able to tell the difference, if any.

Well, I had such a moment just now when I looked at the graph. Amazed.

I guess, somehow, I must be doing something right and there is even less reason for me to stop blogging now. Thanks to all of you. :)

Related post:
ASSI 1Q 2011Quarterly Report.

Sex bloggers did it again!

As if it is not enough being labelled a sex blogger and having National University of Singapore terminated his scholarship last year, Alvin Tan has done it again with his girlfriend, Vivian Lee!

What? Another sex video gone viral? Nope, something worse!

This:

Last Thursday, Tan and Lee, both Malaysians, posted a photograph of themselves eating “bak kut teh” (herbal pork soup) with the words “Selamat Berbuka Puasa” - a Malay greeting for breaking fast - and the “halal” logo, prompting attacks by netizens for its insensitivity toward religious matters.

Are they dumb or what? Insensitive and selfish. They are a disgrace to their country, their schools, their families and their race!

The couple could be prosecuted for displaying offensive pictures and words under Section 233 of the Communications and Multimedia Act. If convicted, they could be fined up to RM50,000 or be given a one year jail sentence, or both.

Lock them up! They have to be taught a lesson in decency (in more ways than one too)!

They have issued an apology but will they change? Spare the cane and spoil the child, I say.

Source:
Dr Mahathir: Punish the sex bloggers!

Related post:
Sex blogger loses scholarship!

A movie: Pacific Rim.

Watched Pacific Rim this evening. I guess I went in with lots of expectations because I have heard so many good things about it from friends. It was good but I wasn't wowed by it.

Took a photo of this standee outside the cinema.

The story is kind of predictable. I mean I could guess who were going to die and who would live in the end. I think more effort could have gone into fleshing out the story too. It was a little bit weak.

There was this scene where a Jaeger (human controlled robot) used what looked like a bulk carrier, a ship as a club to hammer a Kaiju (monster). Watch the scene in the trailer (about 2 minutes 4 seconds into the trailer):



At that point in time, a question came into my head. I wondered which shipyard might have built that ship. It was so sturdy! Didn't break into half when it clobbered the Kaiju.

Anyone knows the answer?

NeraTel: Trading around an investment.

Today, I divested some of my investment in NeraTel. Why? Do I not think that the share price could go higher?

Well, high could go higher. With the MACD and RSI still rising, the positive momentum is strong for price to possibly go higher. We also see a higher high in the CMF.

However, there seems to be an established pattern in the recent meteoric rise of NeraTel's share price. A high volume long white candle day seems to be followed by a short period of low volume pull back.

So, sell some close to the high and buy in again as price pulls back seems to be a good trading strategy. It also seems like a good idea for a long only investor to do this and make some pocket money in the process.

Fundamentally, my main motivation for investing in NeraTel is for a relatively high dividend yield. With its share price having run up so much in so short a time, dividend yield has compressed rapidly. At 84c, we are looking at a yield of 4.76%, far less than the 6.35% to 6.67% just a month or so ago.

With the uptrend intact, I will be looking to add to my long position if a retracement to support should happen. Where is immediate support? Possibly at 79.5c, give or take a bid.

Related post:
NeraTel: Is there no telling how high it could go?

恨人有, 笑人无.

We are human, we are flawed and money issues sometimes bring out the worst in us!

I read this in a rather candid article:

I have a tendency to use money as a scorekeeper in life. If I’m doing well financially, I’m beating all of those schmucks who have less than I do. And all of the people who are doing better than me got there because they cheated, got lucky, or otherwise fell into wealth.

The problem is the worst when I notice other people’s money making me mad. Here (is an example) of the sorts of relationships and encounters that stick in my craw:

• I have an acquaintance who is aloof, socially awkward and somewhat dimwitted. He also tends towards greed and arrogance to boot. But somehow, despite all of these serious faults, he has a knack for making big money. Against all odds, he is succeeding in his field. If current trends continue, he will end up far wealthier than me. And it burns me up.

Source: Your money, my problem.

I have always said that there is no need to compare. Why do people like to keep score and measure how successful a person is? The only person I should compare against is myself.

The Chinese have a saying:

恨人有, 笑人无.

Translation:
To loathe people who have wealth and to laugh at people who don't.

This is a behaviour we should all avoid.

Related posts:
1. Money making.
2. To be a happy peasant.

AK responds to wedding advice given by an IFA. (Financially prepared to be married?)

I might be putting my head on the chopping board with this blog post but this is not something I have not said before: 

"If there is not enough money for a wedding, the two people do not have enough money to be married."

So, when I saw this topic being discussed in Facebook and, shortly after, read an article on how to prepare financially for marriage, the writing bug bit me.






The article written by an independent financial adviser (IFA) is titled "10 Tips on What to Prepare Financially for Your Upcoming Marriage".

The first line in the article: 

IFA:
"If you have finished school, worked for a few years and is attached, your most likely plan next in the agenda is to get married."

This is like someone who translated his emotional needs into action without sending his emotions through a mental filter first! 

A more prudent thing for the couple to do is to ensure that they are financially stable and have the financial capability to be married.

IFA:
"It is OK to rent (a flat) when you get married."

My response:
No, it is not. I don't think I need to say why. (Unless you do not qualify for a BTO flat, why can't you wait for a BTO flat? Why are you in such a rush to get your own place? OK, you don't need to answer that. Think Rule of 15.)

IFA:
"If you are going to borrow to pay that renovation, try to borrow from your own parents first (hopefully they can lend you interest free!)."

My response:
Forget the renovation. If you do not have the money to renovate your home (unless there is a safety issue), don't. You think parents are ATMs?

IFA:
"You may wish to postpone investments until you have fully satisfied that you have set aside sufficient budget for your marriage."

My response:
This is like putting the cart in front of the horse! Consumption before investment? OMG! Whatever happened to delaying gratification? OMG! This is like... er... OMG!

IFA:
"Finally, do spend some amount of money engaging a good professional wedding photographer. Years later, the only way your kids can know about your wedding is through photographs. Make sure you have both hard and softcopies of these photographs."

My response:
I am not curious about my parents' wedding and they do not see the need to tell me anything about it too. I wonder how many are curious about their parents' weddings or how many people would see it as important to educate their children about theirs?




If you ask me, true love does not need a marriage certificate. Of course, if you want to have kids, then, please get married. 

Marriage, in my opinion, is to give the children legitimacy. Unless the family is not part of mainstream society, children born out of wedlock will have many issues growing up.

Two people planning to get married and thinking of borrowing money for everything in the process should not be getting married. 

Obviously, at least to me, they are not financially prepared for it.

"Once you get into debt, it's hell to get out." Charlie Munger.

Related post:
Not enough money to be married.

Think you cannot reduce your spending?

I am always blogging about how we can reduce our expenses. A dollar saved is a dollar earned, isn't it? 

Well, sometimes people say it is difficult or even impossible to reduce expenses. Is it really difficult or is it too difficult to try?

Michelle Morton, age 43, is married and a mother of three. She took up a challenge to cut her spending and here is her story:

She started logging all her expenses on a daily basis. 






"It’s $4 here, $10 here and it doesn’t seem like that much but then when you go to put the receipts in it’s like Oh my God!"

“Really what needs to happen is to say ‘This is what we’re going to spend on groceries this week’ and when it’s gone, it’s gone,” she says. 

“And ‘This is what we’re going to have to spend on eating out,’ the same kind of thing. I have to stop telling myself that although we really won’t save any money this month we’ll make it up next month because that never happens.”






If you are in your 20s and if you have an active social life, well, you might want to learn from Meieli Sawyer who said:

“I understand being thrifty, but you walk a fine line, and you don't want people to talk about you and say you're cheap,” Meieli says. 

“So I’m just going to try to say, ‘Look, things are tight for me right now.’ I’m going to try and not be embarrassed about it.”

Read the full article: here.






Stop putting it off. Take up the challenge today.

Related posts:
1. How to tell if you are rich?
2. The very first step to becoming richer.
3. Retiring a millionaire is not a dream.
4. A fast track to wealth building.
5. Financial freedom.

Motivations and methods in investing (UPDATED August 2018).

I recently started to blog about NeraTel and revealed that I increased my investment in the company. 

Someone asked me what led me to increase the size of my long position when I did since its share price shot up shortly after I made my move. 

Did I have inside information?

Well, I cannot say for sure if I did have a distant relative or two in Myanmar or not. 

Such is the reach of the Chinese diaspora. 

However, I am quite sure that I do not have the benefit of knowing anyone who might be in the know with regards to the Telco contracts awarded by the Myanmar government recently.

Indeed, increasing my investment in NeraTel had much more innocent motivations.




I have been blogging for some time about how the very low interest rates cannot persist forever and that they will one day rise. 

I have also cautioned that we should not be overly optimistic when it comes to real estate investments in Singapore and also S-REITs. 

So, what is someone who is investing for income to do?

A big portion of my investment portfolio is in income investing. 




I got into S-REITs in a big way during the GFC and bought more of AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT and Sabana REIT in late 2011 when prices took a hit. 

Whenever prices took a hit, I would buy more. 

For example, I quadrupled my investment in Saizen REIT in mid 2012 when its warrants were close to expiring and its unit price plunged. 

Conditions were benign for REITs and buying more with an increased margin of safety was, well, safe.

Now, with the spectre of increasing interest rates on the horizon, the sea that is called REITs could become less placid. 

It could become choppy. 




Of course, thinking that REITs will go the way of the Dodo simply because interest rates are going to rise is ridiculous. 

However, not recognising that S-REITs will face headwinds as interest rates rise in future is myopic.

So, the 10x increase in my long position in NeraTel stems from a need to look for alternative investments which are high yielding but with a low or zero probability of being affected negatively by interest rate hikes. 

I like the comfort that comes from having a steady stream of dependable passive income and this remains my biggest motivation for investing in the stock market. 




The following graphic gives a good idea of how I think.

Source: edwardjones.com

..




My investments for income, together with my war chests, form the wide base of the pyramid. 

On top of these but smaller in total value are my investments in certain stocks for growth and income or for growth only. 

At the tip of the pyramid and also representing the smallest total value are more speculative investments which sounds like an oxymoron, doesn't it?

Certainly, like I have always said, there is more than one way to growing our wealth in the stock market and I am not trying to say otherwise by showing the above graphic. 




My methods which are by no means immutable simply reflect my motivations for investing in the stock market.

Ask what are we trying to achieve (i.e. our motivations) and we will know where our money should go. 

Use the right tools (i.e. methods).

If you have read this blog carefully, position sizing is important too.

There is nothing to say that good investors cannot have speculative positions but good investors should keep speculative positions relatively small.




Related posts:
1. Never lose money in real estate?
2. Be cautious climbing S-REIT tree.
3. CPF or SGS?
4. Perpetual bonds: Good or bad?
5. For those who have paid higher prices.

SPH or SPH REIT?

Some people are surprised to learn that I am not all that interested in SPH REIT. Instead, I am more interested in SPH. Why is this so?

I do not think SPH REIT particularly attractive with an estimated distribution yield of about 5.6% although a gearing level of about 30% is comfortable. A yield of about 6% without a higher gearing level would be what is needed to attract me. Otherwise, I think I am better off increasing my investment in SPH.

Simplistically, if I could get a 5% dividend yield by being a shareholder of SPH which will also see its gearing level drop to almost zero with a bigger cash hoard after setting up SPH REIT, why would I still be interested in the REIT?

OK, before I go on, I must say that I am speaking from the point of view of someone who already has a substantial exposure to S-REITs. For someone who has no exposure to S-REITs yet, SPH REIT's IPO does seem like a decent enough proposition.

Some quick calculations show that SPH will see a slight decline in its income by having its ownership of the two malls diluted. So, logically, we would see a decline in its annual dividends paid to shareholders as well, everything else remaining equal. Proportionally, instead of 24c DPS, we could see 21c DPS in future.

In the recent market weakness, I bought more shares of SPH. Assuming an average price of $4.20 a share, a 21c dividend represents a 5% yield. On top of this, the management has promised an 18c special dividend because of the REIT's IPO. This is an additional 4.28% return.

My purchases last month were the highest prices I have ever paid for SPH's stock. Prior purchases were made at between $2.86 and $3.55 a share. However, believing that the management has unlocked value for SPH shareholders in this latest exercise, I am willing to pay reasonably higher prices for the company's stock.

Technically, a pull back could see SPH's share price retreating to test support at $4.22 while any further rise in price could meet with resistance at $4.39. Fellow SPH shareholders want to approach this cautiously since the stock is spotting a downtrend and we don't want to be caught buying at resistance.

Related posts:
1. Which stocks have I been accumulating in June 2013?
2. SPH: A REIT investment.
3. SPH: Better investment than retail S-REITs?

Really Follow AK71 on Facebook.

OK, I just found this in my Facebook account:



I know, I know. Be kind to me. Don't laugh.

Apparently, the button I provided in my last blog post on my Facebook account was to "Add Friend" and that is different from "Follow".


AK's self portrait!

Related post:
AK71's Facebook.

NeraTel: A very good investment.

There has been much said about how the recent surge in NeraTel's share price could be due to expectations that they could be the only Singapore company to benefit from the Telco licences awarded by the Myanmar government. Although it is not ironclad, NeraTel's expertise in the microwave radio transmission segment gives the company a high chance of winning the tenders.

What is more certain, however, is that, by early 2014, NeraTel will be able to move into its own engineering business and develop its own products and this change will improve the company's profit margins. In the meantime, the successful acquisition of Nera Malaysia recently will result in a one time profit of about $7 million.

Samuel Ang, NeraTel's president and CEO has this to say to investors:

"When you look at NeraTel as a company, you need to look at the whole year because we are in a market that involves a lot of capital expenditure. We cannot recognise revenue at one go, we need to look at the work progress, and there may be some delays with some customers"

Therefore, it is more important to note the order intake which represents the health of the business.

OSK-DMG believes that there could be an interim dividend this year and that the current dividend payout of 4c a year is also sustainable.

Reference:
Pages 12 and 13 in The EDGE, July 15, 2013 issue.
AK says: "An excellent write up in The EDGE and if you are interested in NeraTel, go get a copy."

Related post:
NeraTel: Is there no telling how high it could go?

Tea with Mark Mobius: Focus on long term goals.

Mark Mobius, chairman of Templeton Emerging Markets, says as the Fed tapers QE and eventually raises rates, volatility will probably increase, but investors should keep focused on long term goals instead of trying to time the market.

"We are telling our investors to sit back, relax and ride it out."

Templeton is also a substantial shareholder of China Minzhong with a stake in excess of 11%.

Related posts:
1. Be comfortable with being invested.
2. China Minzhong: Looking into the TA crystal ball.

China Minzhong: Looking into the TA crystal ball.

I like China Minzhong's business and I like its prospects. I still have about a third of my original investment in the company which I paid about 58c a share for, having sold the rest for rather attractive capital gains.

In May this year, I increased slightly my exposure to the stock as its share price pulled back to $1.025 and $0.97 per share. The positive divergence between price and MACD has played out and the downtrend has been broken. Currently, the stock trades at $1.12 per share.

Based on Fibo lines, there is resistance at $1.13 and there needs to be a big push up on the back of higher volume to break this barrier. Otherwise, a pulling back to $1.05 or even $0.99 would not surprise me.

I am wondering if we could see the formation of a reverse head and shoulders pattern here which could be part of a bigger bowl formation. Ok, perhaps a saucer formation.

This could pan out to be a very nice trading opportunity. Pardon the pun.

Related post:
China Minzhong: Long black candle on good results.

Vard Holdings: Mr. Market is reacting calmly.

This is a short blog post on my observation that Mr. Market seems to be accepting the bad news regarding Vard Holdings' performance in 2Q 2013 rather calmly. Please refer to the comments section of my blog post on the company yesterday for discussion on its results.

Vard Holding's share price is at 84.5c, down 2.9% or 2.5c as of now. The decline is rather muted, I feel, to what is really a very bad quarterly report card. There seems to be quite a bit of support from buyers, actually. The news might refer to this as "bargain hunting".

It would seem as if Mr. Market feels that the current price level of the stock, for whatever reason, is a fair one at this point in time.

If Vard Holdings' share price should form a lower low, look out for a higher low in the MACD. I am not saying that it will happen but if it should happen, that could be a buy signal.

Related post:
Vard Holdings: Initiating coverage.

Interview with Matthew Seah (Part 2): Value Investing.

I prefer to have a more direct control over my money rather than letting a third party invest for me which usually results in subpar to market returns after fees are paid anyway.

So, although I invest in ETFs, I only invest in passive ETFs like S&P500 ETF and STI ETF where the returns are very similar to returns of the S&P500 and STI, respectively.

My investment approach when it comes to stocks is to pay attention to 3 Rs:

Right model
Right management
Right value

Investing in businesses which have all the 3 Rs has been very rewarding for me.

If you have guessed that I am a value investor, you are right.

Value Investing has been proven to be the best investing method, as can be seen with the phenomenal growth of Berkshire Hathaway, Warren Buffett's company.

Many people buy stocks after hearing good news about the stocks. They are just buying something which is selling at a higher price in the hope of selling it later at an even higher price, which doesn't make sense to me.




Value Investing is like shopping for stocks on sale. It would be more logical to buy stocks when they are at a discount and not when they have become pricier. This is about buying something at a price lower than its intrinsic value.

Another thing which is important to remember is to invest in companies which have some kind of competitive advantage over their peers. These companies tend to have a larger market share, and are more profitable in the long run. Therefore, they are likely to continue growing in years to come.

For someone who is new to investing, I would suggest being more cautious. What do I mean?

I tested some strategies through paper trading prior to real investing. When I started paper trading, I was more emotional and often closed my trades too early. Now, I hold on to my investments for a much longer period which has proven to be more profitable than short term trading.

Being stronger financially now also means that I am able to weather larger drawdowns to my investment portfolio without feeling too emotional. 

I will end by sharing this quotation:

"Your goal as an investor should simply be to purchase, at a rational price, a part interest in an easily-understandable business whose earnings are virtually certain to be materially higher five, ten and twenty years from now." Warren Buffett

Related posts:
1. Warren Buffett: The greatest money maker.
2. Getting started in investing and trading.
3. Interview with Matthew Seah (Part 1): Financial Freedom.

Vard Holdings: Initiating coverage.

I have always liked the sound of the phrase "initiating coverage". It reminds me of some movies I watched before where a person in a war room would be standing ready to press a red color button while announcing "initiating launch sequence now". Quite exciting.

Well, talking about Vard Holdings might not create the same kind of excitement for some readers especially for those who have bought the stock at much higher prices. For sure, there is no paucity of BUY calls from analysts on Vard Holdings.

I remember replying to a reader a couple of months ago that we could see a rebound because of a positive divergence but with the downtrend intact, share price could go lower.

In yesterday's session, Vard Holdings' share price hit a new 12 months low of 83c. So, is share price at the start of a recovery today? This is a question I do not have the answer to. However, technically, there is no reversal signal. So, if share price should trend lower, it would not surprise me.

If it should trend lower, a critical support would be at 79c, the low formed in October 2011. Remember, this is what I see in the chart and it does not mean that it will happen.

Of course, there is always a possibility of a sharp rebound in which case, we could see a gap covering at 96c or a test of gap resistance at 99.5c.

Fundamentally, it is quite easy to see why there are so many BUY calls.

Doing a quick valuation exercise, at 83c a share, Vard Holdings does not seem expensive. In fact, it seems quite cheap now. I went through the numbers and its 1Q FY13 EPS works out to be 3.37c. Annualising this and using a PER of 7x will give us a value of 94.5c while a PER of 8x will give us a value of $1.08.  Why 7x or 8x? Well, that is the kind of PERs we are looking at with smaller yards like ASL Marine and Marco Polo Marine. 

So, at 83c, Vard Holdings is actually trading at an even lower valuation compared to smaller yards? Yes, that would seem to be the case from a price earnings perspective.

If we believe that the demand for OSVs is on the rise, then, Vard Holdings should be a logical beneficiary. However, we should bear in mind that although the stock might seem like a compelling buy, share price could weaken further. So, unless we are mentally prepared for such a possibility, it might be better to wait for clearer signs of a reversal.

After all, Vard Holdings did issue a profit warning due to higher than expected cost overruns at its Niteroi yard as well as higher than expected start-up costs at its new yard, Promar, which was what sent its share price diving.

Related post:
Marco Polo Marine: 1H FY2013.

Note:

Vard Holdings Limited ("VARD") will release its financial results for the second quarter and half year ended 30 June 2013 after market closes on Thursday 11 July 2013.