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Friday, November 5, 2010

Saizen REIT: Huge sell down in consolidation phase.

Just as I said on 2 Nov, "I noticed that there seems to be more buying interest in Saizen REIT today too. Of 3,260 lots that changed hands today, 2,968 lots were bought up at 16c. This could just be an anomaly or this could be the beginning of something bigger. Who can say for sure? A crack in the wall of worries? Perhaps.", the counter experienced heavy volume sell down on 3 Nov. The wall of worries was very much intact.


The golden cross between the rising 20dMA and the 50dMA failed to materialise as 20,291 lots were sold down at 15.5c out of 24,231 lots traded. MFI sank deeper into oversold territory, suggesting very weak demand.  This is confirmed by the OBV which showed extreme distribution activity that day. The consolation seemed to be that the selling at 15.5c was very well absorbed, considering that volume was at least 6 times more than the previous session which in itself was a rather high volume day for such a thinly traded counter.


On 4 Nov, I was kind of disappointed that the volume dried up.  I was hoping for more panic selling which might allow me to buy some at 15c.  Wishful thinking, it seems.

Related post:
Saizen REIT: More buying interest.
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4 comments:

  1. AnonymousNovember 5, 2010 at 9:10 AM

    20000 over lots....must be 1 of the name from the top 20 shareholders.
    15.5 seems like a good/reasonable price to collect...

    john.c.

    ReplyDelete
  2. AK71November 5, 2010 at 9:20 AM

    Hi john.c.

    Most of the Top 20 Unitholders are nominee accounts. We won't know who are the people selling really but if they were substantial unitholders, we would expect an announcement from the manager.

    15.5c is a fair price, I agree. I bought more recently. :)

    ReplyDelete
  3. AnonymousNovember 5, 2010 at 3:08 PM

    hi ak,
    seller is citigrp and u r right, they are merely custodian for one of the bigger shareholder. I wasnt surprised with the selldown since this is already the 3rd one.(may & aug too). you will notice that following wed's selldown, its almost consistantly once every 3 mths. what impresses me is that after 20mil of sales fr 83, 0.155 is still on the bid side for most of the day. there is a possibility, however, that this selldown is staged. merely a process of left hand to the right. spooking the weak and forces them out of the game before a bigger movement. the moment of truth will be next wed. If there is an absence of sellers in the market, it will almost be a testament to my theory.

    cheers dp

    ReplyDelete
  4. AK71November 5, 2010 at 4:27 PM

    Hi dp,

    That thought crossed my mind too. Just left hand to right hand.. Haha.. As that is really pure speculation, I didn't want to say anything. My occasional flights of fancy. ;p

    15.5c does seem quite resilient but I suspect that if there is really some manipulation going on, we could see 15c again to really spook smaller holders into selling. ;)

    ReplyDelete