Towards the last half hour of the trading day, it was quite apparent that the bears have won the day. There were too many sellers with almost no buyers and price closed at 18.5c to form a gravestone doji. Selling down activity accounted for 24.6m shares while buying up activity accounted for a paltry 1.2m shares.
The steep uptrend seems ultimately unsustainable. Sell signal on the MACD is confirmed while the MFI moved lower, remaining overbought. Even though the continuing sideways movement in price is taking place on the back of reducing volume, without any significant buying up activity, price is likely to lower in time.
Strategy: I have divested more of my position in Healthway Medical in the last half hour of the trading day. What remains is 20% of my original investment. I now look forward to accumulating at supports as the expectation is for the counter to do a correction in price.
FAKE ASSI AK71 IN HWZ.
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13 comments:
Hi AK 47,
I wanted to be a long term investor but do not understand the mechanic on reading the chart. Hence making many poor investments.
Bought COSCO at 1.37, sold at 1.13 hoping it will correct back to 1.05 later but in the end saw the price rocketed to 1.38 before retreating to the present level.
Luckily, I diverted my fund to China Hongx. Bought at 0.19 and sold it too early at 0.21. If sold at 0.23, I will be able to recover my lost ground totally. Despite selling at 0.21, I managed to reduce my overall lossess.
My next move was unfortunte. Bought 800 lots of Healthway Medical at a high price of 0.185.
Not sure whether to sell all my 800 lots 0.185 tomolo just losing the commission?
Your advise, please
Kingston
Hi Kingston,
I cannot say if buying 800 lots of Healthway at 18.5c is unfortunate at this stage. Wow! 800 lots! You're a BB!
Charts are windows into the mass psychology of market participants and can be quite accurate in providing signals on future directions but these signals have to be confirmed. Sometimes, they don't get confirmed and are violated instead. :(
I cannot advise you on whether you should sell the 800 lots at 18.5c tomorrow. If you are buying this for the long term as an investment and believe that Healthway Medical is worth a lot more, you could consider holding. If you are buying this as a trade, you might want to put in a stop loss level. I'm not good at stop losses. You might want to seek advice from a professional like your broker on this.
I blogged about this before and you might want to check it out:
http://singaporeanstocksinvestor.blogspot.com/2009/12/trade-or-investment.html
Remember that buying at or close to resistance always carries greater risk. Aim to buy at or close to supports and sell at or close to resistance. Always hedge to reduce risk further.
Note points 3 and 4 in this post:
http://singaporeanstocksinvestor.blogspot.com/2009/12/thoughts-on-methodology.html
It's still possible to make good money without knowledge of TA. Use FA and ferret out undervalued companies. If you ferret out a gem, the market is likely to recognise it one day just like what happened with Healthway Medical. :)
P.S. AK47 makes me very old. I rather like being AK71. ;-p
AK 71,
Haha, so sorry about my mistake on your ID.
So far most of my investments were poorly done.
Lost almost $120K over a good 10 years.
Thanks for your advise.
Kinston
Hi Kingston,
You are welcomed. :)
I am no guru. I can be and have been wrong before. I am still learning. It's never too late to learn. Check this out:
http://singaporeanstocksinvestor.blogspot.com/2010/01/risk-and-rewards-ta-and-fa.html
And, of course, we need a healthy dose of luck! Good luck to us all! :)
Hi Kingston,
10 years in the market is a long time. I think you seriously need to re-educate yourself on investing strategies.
Hi AK71,
Impressive analysis.
May i know at what price would you enter healthway again, especially after its XR? 15 cents?
- Kelvin
Hi Kelvin,
I have identified the supports for Healthway Medical in another post. You might want to check it out:
http://singaporeanstocksinvestor.blogspot.com/2010/01/healthway-medical-black-spinning-top.html
I will accumulate at every support level on the way down. 15c will be a stronger support level but there is no way TA can tell you if it will be reached. So, I always hedge.
I don't know what price Healthway might be trading at after XR. Your guess is as good as mine. ;)
green horn @ this but theres a straight 2 day buy back...is this to control the price or theres excess budget from the company so theres a buy back...
thanks CL
Hi CL,
Actually, that is a very good question. I liked it when Healthway Medical did a share buy back at 12.5c. I was less pleased with the share buy back at 18.5c. After all, 12.5c was really cheap but 18.5c is much closer to a fairer valuation. In my opinion, Healthway Medical would have done better to keep the cash for their expansion into China. After all, they are doing a rights issue to raise funds for that purpose. I'm not a substantial shareholder or else, I would have picked up the phone and asked them why.
Hi createwealth8888,
Thanks for your advise. In reality I have no strategy at all. Just act on impulsiveness. That's why till date, I have not make a single cents.
Keep in touch.
Kingston
should i buy saizen reit now?
I don't like buying things which are on the way up. I buy them when they are still in their base formations or when they come off their highs and hit supports. It's just my style which is not for everyone. You have to decide for yourself.
Hi AK71 thanks, cause wondering is it ok to hold on to it or sell it off.
Thanks CL
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