Retire worry free in Singapore soon.

I have been thinking about really retiring in a couple of years.

Confused?

Didn't AK retire 8 years ago a few months before he turned 45 years of age?

Yes, I retired from active employment 8 years ago and I have been enjoying retirement so far.

However, I am not really retired because to me that would mean not having to look at growing my wealth anymore.

In the past 8 years, I was still pretty active in managing my investment portfolio.

Most notably, I made the move to increase exposure to DBS, OCBC and UOB.

I look forward to the day when I can be absolutely laid back.

Yes, I want to be more laid back than laid back.

Terrible, I know.

However, if I can achieve that, to me, I would be truly retired.

So, can I do it?

I think I can in another 2 years.

1. CPF money

Like I said in a recent blog, I would be 55 in a couple of years and that would be when my CPF account becomes a savings account.

Assuming that I stay with the FRS in the CPF RA, maintaining the prevailing BHS in the MA, I should have $800K or more in my OA.

Simply leaving it in the OA, that would generate an interest income of $20K per year.

I do not expect the low interest rate environment which lasted 15 years from the Global Financial Crisis to return anytime soon.

So, I could possibly get more than $20K per year from the CPF OA savings if I were to continue to buy T-bills with the funds.

Conservatively, if I could get 3% yield from T-bills, that would mean another $4K per year for a total of $24K per year in interest income.

2. Emergency fund money

In my recent blog post on how much cash I was holding, if I were to continue maintaining a $250K emergency fund held in fixed deposits, assuming a conservative 2% interest rate, I would get $5K a year in interest income.

This assumes that the UOB ONE account would have stopped offering a higher interest rate by then.

Seeing how UOB has already reduced the interest rate from 5% to 4%, this is a reasonable assumption.

3. T-bill ladder money

Now, I have about $200K in T-bills, if cut-off yields were to be 3% and this is not unlikely in an environment of higher for longer interest rates, that would generate some $6K in interest income.

However, if I continue to grow this since passive income generated by my investment portfolio exceeds my expenses by about $100K a year, with $400K in T-bill in 2 years from now, I could get $12K a year from T-bills then.

4. Fixed income

Fixed income was not attractive in a low interest rate environment and I had to look for more reasonable returns elsewhere.

Obviously, this has changed in the last 2 years.

From all the numbers I have crunched so far, 2 years from now, if I were to simply continue to buy more T-bills, I could receive passive income of $24K (CPF) + $5K (Emergency Fund) + $12K (T-bills) per year.

That is $41K in total.

5. Investment portfolio

If my investment portfolio continues to bring home the bacon and I am inclined to think that it would, I would be very comfortable.

My investment portfolio generated some $230K in 2023 and this included passive income from T-bills.

If I were to exclude this component, the portfolio would still have generated more than $220K in passive income.

Assuming income generation takes a 10% hit because REITs continue to underperform, I would still see $200K from my investment portfolio.

If we should see disease X striking, resulting in another pandemic, income generation could take a hit like what we saw during the lockdown.

Banks paid less dividend.

So, knocking 40% off passive income generated by 40% of my portfolio would still see $170K generated by my investment portfolio.

This includes the assumption that REITs would perform poorly too as said earlier, if you crunch the numbers yourself.

Assuming that I am still comfortable with living on $48,000 a year and setting aside another $48,000 for parental support, even in such a scenario, I shouldn't have to worry about money.

6. Total passive income

Looking at the above points, with the aid of fixed income in an environment of higher interest rates, in 2 years from now, I would have a truly worry free retirement.

Well, worry free when it comes to money at least.

There will be other worries, I am sure.

7. Conclusion

Having come to this realization, I have decided that I don't have to look at the stock market as much as before in the meantime.

Unless there is another stock market crash, simply hold my stock positions and continue to buy more T-bills.

This is naturally going to translate to fewer blogs and videos on related topics.

This is something I have been thinking of on and off.

It is the first time I have sat down and really looked at the numbers more carefully, projecting into the future.

To be fair, it is the near future I am looking at.

I will have to talk to myself again when I turn 55.

To anyone who is eavesdropping, this isn't a miracle and it isn't a dream either.

I have talked to myself extensively since 2009 here in my blog on the things I have done to make this possible.

Stay prudent.

Have patience.

Be pragmatic.

If AK can do it, so can you!

How much cash am I holding?

I have been asked this question in various forms by various people over the years.

"How much cash are you holding now?"

However, like how I have always sidestepped questions regarding my net worth and the size of my investment portfolio, I have habitually sidestepped the question.

I have published a blog post in the past to explain why.

See:

My investment philosophy or my investment portfolio?

So, this blog post is going to be the first time since I started blogging in 2009 where I share some specific numbers.

Why the change of heart?

This is because of what someone told me not too long ago.

It would help readers have some kind of yardstick for themselves in their decision making process.

I am always mindful of the fact that all our circumstances are different.

So, there is nothing sacrosanct about what I am about to reveal.

We do what our circumstances allow.

Of course, we could push ourselves to do more and we should but how much to push, that depends on our threshold for pain.

1. War Chest

I have said again and again that is it important to have a war chest.

When opportunity knocks, we want to have the resources to take advantage of the opportunity.

For me, such an opportunity usually takes the form of market pessimism.

Like Buffett said before, be greedy when others are fearful.

It is harder to do well when everyone is feeling optimistic and chasing prices higher.

Then, how much should we have in our war chest?

I get asked this so often.

There really is no magic number or percentage.

It depends on Mr. Market.

When Mr. Market is feeling optimistic, my war chest continues to grow in size.

When Mr. Market feels pessimistic, my war chest could be totally empty.

During the Global Financial Crisis, I emptied my war chest and I have blogged about this before.

What about now?

At the moment, I have about $200K in my war chest.

As I do not have a lavish lifestyle and because my passive income exceeds my expenses, this sum is likely to grow.

The money is stored stored in my T-bill ladder.

See:

So, how to grow our war chest? 

Basically, just spend less than we make, either actively or passively.

Want to grow it faster?

Become a better saver.

2. Emergency Fund

Of course, when we talk about cash on hand, we have to talk about emergency fund.

How much do I have in my emergency fund now?

About $250K.

This amount has stayed the same for a while now.

It gets adjusted upwards from time to time to account for inflation and other changes in life.

An emergency fund is important because if all else fails, we have near money we can rely on.

The last time I made an adjustment to my emergency fund was when I decided that I needed $48,000 a year myself and I should give my parents $48,000 a year too, directly or indirectly.

That's a total of about $100,000 in expenses.

I like to keep an emergency fund that would cover at least 24 months of expenses.

So, I have overcompensated. 

The good thing is that I have a good size safety net and I wouldn't have to tinker with it for many years to come.

See:
Passive income and updating my budget.

At this point, I must say that it is important to build a meaningful emergency fund first before ever investing any money in risk assets which includes stocks and properties.

I made a related video on this topic:

Of course, while building an emergency fund, our war chest would go hungry but only in the meantime.

If you are wondering how large your emergency fund should be, you might want to eavesdrop on AK here:

How large should an emergency fund be?

Where do I store my emergency fund?

In fixed deposits.

This is because fixed deposits pay higher interest and they are easier to break than T-bills.

At the moment, $100K of my emergency fund is in the UOB ONE Account because that is really near money and makes 5% p.a.

Of course, come 1 May, I would have to try and bump this number up to $150K as UOB ONE would be cutting the maximum interest rate to 4% p.a. on the first $150K.

3. Float

What is a float.

Well, it is just money floating in my savings accounts which I can use on a daily basis.

I try to have about $20,000 floating at any one time.

This is not because I need all the money on a daily basis but really because I am just mental.

There is no rational reason for this apart from the fact that I feel safe having at least this much which I can use to pay anyone or for anything while leaving my emergency fund intact.

Any excess money, I should be using to strengthen my T-bill ladder.

However, by now, it is obvious that AK cares more about having peace of mind and feeling comfortable than maximizing returns.

Like I always say, I am fine being approximately right.

What I want to avoid is being absolutely wrong.

My float is currently closer to $50,000 than $20,000.

Bad AK! Bad AK!

4. CPF

I know some will remind me about my CPF savings which is, of course, pretty substantial.

See:
$1.1m in CPF savings.

Most of the money in my CPF account will become cash when I turn 55 in another couple of years.

That would be when my CPF account becomes a savings account because I would be able to withdraw the money whenever I want.

I can see my war chest becoming much larger because of this.

Of course, I could also continue to treat my CPF savings as the bond component of my portfolio which can be used to invest in other risk free and volatility free instruments like T-bills.

Thus, the bond component of my investment portfolio would remain intact.

I will decide what to do when the time comes.

OK, I am feeling a bit breathless now.

Time to stop talking to myself.

So, how much cash am I holding?

If AK can do it, so can you!