I have a friend who is very risk averse and views the stock market as being fraught with danger. He basically thinks it is a jungle with snake pits and poisonous gas bogs. I am inclined to agree with him which is why it would be most advantageous if we could find a guide who would walk with us.
Having read some personal finance blogs, my friend decided that he wants to try to grow his wealth by investing in the stock market. A commendable change in attitude, if I do say so myself. He wondered if he should try his hands at trading the market and maybe he could grow his wealth quickly that way. I told him candidly that he could make a lot of money that way, the operative word being "could".
I shared with him how I made a lot of money from March 2009 to January 2010. However, that was a once in a lifetime opportunity to make a lot of money and I was lucky to have participated. Was I smarter than the average investor during the months of March 2009 to January 2010? I don't think so. I was probably just at the right place at the right time. I also told him how I lost a lot of money as well prior to the aforesaid winning streak. So, to me, it's quite simply all about timing.
I told him he might want to invest in some companies and REITs which could give him a yield of 6 to 10% per annum. This took into consideration his risk averse personality and the current high prices of stocks. I believe that investing in some companies and REITs with strong fundamentals and high yields would be best for him. I also impressed upon him that these companies and REITs could see their share prices fluctuate but since he is investing for income, he should not have to worry too much about the day to day fluctuations in price. This is a big advantage of this strategy.
How much could he afford to invest? After doing some calculations with him, setting aside some money for emergencies and daily expenses which amounted to several months of his salary from active employment, he had a capital of about $100k to invest with. I suggested a basket of REITs and companies which he could invest in when prices next pull back (as prices do not usually go up in a straight line). Even then, don't put in all his money at one go but split his funds into 4 or 5 tranches. This is hedging in case prices do fall lower. If he has some knowledge of TA, he would be able to spot supports and trends and would be able to decide if he should pump in more funds each time prices fall or if he should wait. So, learn some TA, he shall.
After saying all these, he was quite pleased but at the back of his mind, there remained a nagging thought that he could grow his $100k to $500k in the next 10 to 20 years if he traded actively. I simply smiled and told him to go learn TA and trading strategies. There are courses, websites and blogs aplenty. Could I not teach him? I told him honestly that I am not a very good trader. I use a combination of FA and TA, FA to spot undervalued stocks and TA to spot entry and exit prices. The high yield counters I am vested in could possibly go higher in price as they are mostly undervalued. I am quite confident and comfortable with my approach. It might or might not be for him.
I also suggested that he could simply wait for the next crash before going into the market. Buy at a time when there is abject pessimism and when most have given up on the market. Is it that simple? Well, it could be, I said. Why bother to trade actively (especially if we are not very good at it)? Just save his money and continue saving as much of his monthly salary as he could. When the next crash comes, he would be ready. Load up then and get ready to see his wealth double ... or even triple.
The Chinese have a saying that "one type of rice feeds a hundred types of people". There are many strategies to wealth building and we simply have to find a strategy that works for us. Age and how much money we have to start out with have a part to play, perhaps, but I believe that ultimately, we must be able to sleep well at night with our decisions in life.
Related posts:
Risks and rewards: TA and FA.
Excuse me, are you an investor?
Seven steps to creating passive income from the stock market.
27 comments:
"I told him he might want to invest in some companies and REITs which could give him a yield of 6 to 10% per annum."
That's a strong commitment that REITs should still perform in this range...
Hi ilcourtilcourt,
There are a few REITs which are giving yields of around 8 to 10%:
http://singaporeanstocksinvestor.blogspot.com/2010/09/minimum-of-50k-in-annual-passive-income.html
I also believe that given the current circumstances surronding these REITs, the DPUs are sustainable. If circumstances should take a turn for the worse, well, we would have to react accordingly.
Of course, the unit prices of these REITs could appreciate and if DPUs remain unchanged, yields would fall. Decisions we make would have to be relevant to the prevailing circumstances. :)
Revisited this blog post because I dug it up to place a link to it in another blogger's blog.
It has been almost 2 years since I last commented here and I am pleased to say that the S-REITs have not failed to deliver over the same period of time.
S-REITs are likely to continue doing well.
So? I am...
Staying positive on S-REITs.
:)
Hi AK,
May I pls know why Technical Analysis usually works? Eg. from Technical Analysis, you've mentioned that DBS at $31.80 is at a support, and the price reached down there before hovering thereabouts. Is it because many people use Technical Analysis to analyze stocks, and thus they can see the same support price as other people, so once they reach this price, most of them start buying, making this support price a self-fulfilling prophecy?
Hi Learner,
Technical Analysis provides a window into Mr. Market's psychology. :)
I am always talking about Mr. Market, and he is just an aggregate of all investors' behavior.
I don't know why TA works but I know it does.
Still, to be honest, it doesn't always work.
It is just like how I know my computer works and I know how to use it, but I don't know why it works. ;p
Thanks for sharing your knowledge, AK. :)
HI Learner,
I am happy to share what little I know.
Please remember AK doesn't know everything and that he could be wrong. ;p
Hi AK,
Does your warchest include money for possible rights issues of all your existing stocks? If so, what is your plan if your warchest isn't sufficient to subscribe to all rights issues (eg. several stocks issue rights at around the same time)?
Hi Learner,
Yes, the war chest takes into consideration possible rights issue.
If the rights issue is too large, then, we can always sell some of our existing investment if we wish to take part in the rights issue.
We can also choose not to take part in the rights issue, especially if we do not think it is a good use of money.
Thanks for sharing your knowledge, AK. :)
Hi Learner,
Happy to share what little I know. :)
Of course, we should always have our own plan. ;)
Hi AK,
I've watched the Fifth Person's Youtube interview with you that was published on 29 Nov 2023. In it, you mentioned that DBS' support levels are at $32, $31.80 and $30.50. I'm trying to learn Technical Analysis on my own, so I tried to figure out how you came up with the above 3 levels. Did you use a Weekly price chart of DBS, and if so, worked out the support levels as follows?:
- $32 (is this Level read off from the 150 Day Simple Moving Average?)
- $31.80 (is this Level corresponding to the lowest price level of the price Trough in Mar 2023?)
- $30.50 (is this Level corresponding to the bouncing off of this price level from May 2023 to Jul 2023?)
Hi Learner,
If you want to pick up TA, you might want to read some books first.
I have a book list on the right side bar of the web version of my blog.
TA isn't hard but we get better with practice, of course.
Based on what you have mentioned, you seem to know the basics. :)
I will say that $30.50 is probably a weak support which was why I said there is a band of support from $30 to $30.50.
Supports are rarely specific prices.
Also, we want to look at momentum oscillators like the MACD, RSI and MFI.
They will let us have an idea as to the strength of the price movement.
Thanks for your reply, AK. :)
Hi Learner,
It is a fascinating way to gain some insights into Mr. Market's psychology. Have fun. :)
Merry Christmas to you, AK! :)
Hi Learner,
Merry Xmas! :D
Hi AK,
I'm trying out the MFI (Money Flow Index) indicator using Yahoo Finance, and am unsure whether to use the default settings or modify them:
Period = 14
OverBought = 80
OverSold = 20
May I pls know what settings you use?
Hi Learner,
Those default parameters are good enough for me. :)
Hi AK,
Thanks for your clarification. :)
Furthermore, for the RSI and MACD indicators using Yahoo Finance, may I pls know whether you're using the following default settings too?
1) RSI:
Period = 14
Field = Close
OverBought = 80
OverSold = 20
2) MACD:
Fast MA Period = 12
Slow MA Period = 26
Signal Period = 9
Hi Learner,
I always use the default settings. ;p
We can pull up the daily, weekly or monthly chart to look at different time frames.
No need to fret about other settings. :)
Thanks for your clarification, AK. :)
Hi Learner,
I try to keep things simple and as long as they work, they are good for me.
If you find some other methods which work for you, that is all good too. :)
Hi AK,
When you use the MACD Divergence: do you use the MACD Double Divergence, or the usual MACD Divergence?
Hi Learner,
I just look out for positive or negative divergences.
Price against volume is the most basic.
Price against momentum oscillators like MACD, RSI or MSI can be used to reinforce.
If I see similar divergences in all instances, it is a strong signal.
Thanks for your clarification, AK. :)
Hi Learner,
Been a while since I did any trading.
So, a bit rusty.
Make sure you get a Tetanus jab. ;p
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