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STI at 2,425 points?

Monday, May 17, 2010

What we have is a sea of red.  Sentiments have not been so bearish in a long time as the HSI sank below 20,000 points.  I continue to believe that any rebound that comes along in the near future should be an opportunity to reduce exposure in the stock market. This is more so for stocks which are clearly in a downtrend. Having said that, the STI is holding up rather well under all the selling pressure.

As the index retreats, the OBV declines. This is an obvious sign of distribution. The MFI has been forming lower highs and lower lows.  Positive buying momentum is lacking.  In the near term, the 2,780 level or so should be an important support.  This is confirmed by Fibo lines, the rising 200dMA as well as candlesticks.

Looking at weekly charts is sometimes very revealing. If we look at STI's weekly chart, we understand why it is more resilient than some other indices. We understand why the 2,780 level is an important support. 2,780 is also where we find the uptrend line and the flat 200wMA. If the longer term uptrend is to stay intact, 2,780 must not break. Will it break?  I cannot say for sure, of course, but the technicals are rather weak.

1. Volume has been rising as the index retreated in the past few weeks.

2. The high achieved in the week of 12 April was accompanied by a lower high on the OBV compared to the high achieved in the week of 4 January, telling us that there was less accumulation taking place in April. Similarly, the MFI was lacklustre on 12 April compared to where it was on 4 January.

Not all weekly MAs are uptrending.  The 100wMA is still declining and is currently at 2,425. The chances of the STI retreating further exist.  Much depends on whether 2,780 holds up. Could we see the STI at 2,425 in the coming weeks? Perhaps.


Anonymous said...

heart attack if drop till 2425


AK71 said...

Hi Chan,

Go get your heart medicine ready then, just in case. Haha... What to do? Try this:

From my recent posts, you can probably tell that I have been doing some selling and accumulating cash. ;)

Anonymous said...

Hi Ak,

Captial Mall Asia seems to be edging up day by day. Have you cut loss 100% already? care to comment?

AK71 said...

Hi Naomi,

I will be doing a TA on Capitamalls Asia later this evening. :)

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