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Saizen REIT: Oversold.

Thursday, August 5, 2010

Saizen REIT has been stuck at 16c for weeks. Nothing is happening and it is just a waiting game now.  However, it appears that most of the weaker holders have sold.

The Bollinger bands have narrowed and the MAs are all flattening with the exception of the long term 200dMA which is still rising.  In fact, the 20d and 50d MAs have merged and flatlined at 16c. 16c could either become a very strong support or resistance in future.  Looking at the MFI and the Stochastics, we see that this counter is very oversold. The OBV shows a stalemate between accumulation and distribution.

Taking a look at the weekly chart reveals that the longer term demand has been trending up.  The MFI confirms this. Price has also overcome the descending 100wMA which was a strong resistance.  At 16c, the unit price is sandwiched between the flat 20w and 50w MAs.  Although Mr. Market does not care for what I think, it seems to me that the unit price of Saizen REIT could only go up from here.  Let's wait for the results.


yeti said...

HI AK71,

Any idea when they announce the result?

AK71 said...

Hi Yeti,

No announcement from the management on the exact date. Personally, I think it should be sometime this month. The annual report (hard copy) should be available sometime next month.

michael said...

AK71 give some advice

ying li is currently have a ascending triangle right.....


Mac are at the resistance turn support for few days... is this the retract back for us to buy a second chance or is bearish divergence...


innotek is having sym..........Triangle.... if it break thru it will follow the trend


Afor Limited sighted a black hammer..... is this a real hammer.... is it a uptrend sign?


Smrt rising again

AK71 said...

Hi Michael,

TA shows probabilities, never absolutes.

Based on your charts, I would be a bit cautious with Ying Li as the RSI has formed lower highs. See if the RSI bounces off 50% which could act as support.

With MIIF, it seems that price has found a floor for now. Will the support hold? There is weakness. That much is apparent. I do not see any bearish divergence though.

Innotek's triangle might fail. Usually, a breakout should happen not near the apex of the triangle but 2/3 into the triangle. Your chart does not have volume information. Volume is important in TA. Stochastics is usually more useful in rangebound conditions. The MACD shows a return of positive momentum but the last two candles formed could turn out to be a bearish two stick pattern: a black candle inside a bigger white candle.

AFOR Limited's chart has no volume information too. It is hard to do much TA for this counter based on what is on your chart but it does look like an uptrend. However, a black hammer formed in an uptrend is a possible reversal signal. Price could correct to test the 50dMA if the signal is valid. A stronger support is the 100dMA. What about the 200dMA? Well, the counter has not tested the 200dMA since beginning of 2010. Probability is therefore lower.

SMRT's chart is bearish. The MACD has plunged deeply into negative territory and the 20dMA seems ready to do a dead cross with the 50dMA. Price seems to have found a floor for now and could experience a rebound but this might be resisted by the 100dMA.

These are just my observations based on what I see in your charts. Good luck. :)

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