Healthway Medical: Uptrend threatened.

On 11 Aug, I blogged about how Healthway Medical's support at 18.5c had been compromised and that price could go lower. I said that "It is likely that 17c could be tested as a support sooner than later".  Then, for a few days in late August and early September, price actually sank below 17c before recovering.

Today, the support at 17c crumbled on high volume.  That 17c was taken out when it is where the rising 200dMA is approximating is very bearish since the 200dMA is supposed to be a rather strong support. The last time this happened was in the second half of May this year but price rapidly recovered.  How high are the chances of such a recovery this time round?

Take note that the volume today was very much higher than back in May as the counter was sold down.  Back in May, the MACD was also poised to do a bullish crossover with the signal line while, this time round, it is dipping into negative territory. Lower highs spotted on the MFI and RSI, suggesting a weakening demand and slowing buying momentum.

Drawing a trendline support connecting the lows of 30 Dec 09 and 25 May 10, we see this support approximating 16c which happens to be a many times tested support from March to April this year.  16c is likely to be psychologically important as a support.  So, if it could hold up, it could provide the base for a rebound.

If the support at 16c breaks, the uptrend is well and truly over.  We could witness a massive selling down to 14c then (the 138.2% Fibo line), followed by 13c (the 161.8% Fibo line).  So, all eyes would be on 16c.

I have a very small position in Healthway Medical left which consists of rights shares and scrip dividends, average cost should be in the region of 12c, having divested >95% of my investment in the company earlier this year.  Good luck to all shareholders.

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Thursday, 14 October 2010

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