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Saizen REIT: Steady.

Saturday, December 18, 2010

I have not been doing much TA on Saizen REIT and some readers are worried. OK, let me do an update.


Saizen REIT has settled into a tight trading range. All the daily MAs are within close proximity of each other. The technicals are benign. MFI is forming higher lows and higher highs. OBV shows some accumulation.


Look at the weekly chart and the picture is more exciting. 20wMA has flatlined. The 50wMA continues to rise which reduces the capping pressure on upward price movement. The 100wMA continues to rise strongly and this limits further downside and could also provide a push to the unit price.

The MACD is poised to cross over into positive territory. The higher lows on the MFI are equally obvious on the weekly chart. All technicals point to an improvement in longer term sentiments.

Things could only get better in time.

Here is a link contributed by a reader, DP:
Japanese property market on the rise.
Click on Listen:Windows Media for a radio broadcast which we could listen to as well.

Related post:
Saizen REIT: Insider buying continues.

9 comments:

Anonymous said...

When did stability become undesirable? :p Though I have to say saizen did cost me quite a bit in opportunity costs since it did not budge much from a year ago...

On a positive note, japanese inflation rate (yes it's finally inflation) was reported to be 0.2% in Oct 2010

P

AK71 said...

Hi P,

Well, like you said, there is opportunity cost. So, to some, waiting for positive development in placid conditions worries them. ;)

As for opportunity costs, it depends on how much returns we are going after in the stock market. To people who are after 20% returns a year, my current approach which is investing for income would have too much opportunity cost for them. ;-p

Things in Japan are looking up. :)

la papillion said...

Hi,

That's why it's good to hold the warrants :) You put in less than half the capital requirement for holding an equivalent amt of shares while waiting :)

What you gain in opportunity cost from freeing up your capital, you lose in dividends from not holding the ordinary shares, haha :)

Can't have your cake and eat it too, unless you buy two cakes ;)

AK71 said...

Hi LP,

Yes, buy two cakes. ;)

I have reduced my exposure to the warrants and increased my exposure to the mother shares though. This is consistent with my strategy to invest for income. :)

Anonymous said...

Hi AK,

There's a HK newspaper article today written by Marc Faber on his investment recommendations, including silver, palladium, and his favorite S-REIT, Fraser Centrepoint Trust. Do you have a view on FCT? Don't think you have blogged about it.

Here's the link for your interest (if you can read Chinese):

http://hk.apple.nextmedia.com/template/apple/art_main.php?iss_id=20101220&sec_id=15307&subsec_id=15326&art_id=14783544&cat_id=5886774&coln_id=6848939

Have a great X'mas,

Victor

AK71 said...

Hi Victor,

Thanks for the link but I find reading Chinese quite stressful. I can't read half the words and my reading speed is very slow. :(

Marc Faber has good judgement. He also owned Hyflux Water Trust before. ;)

FCT is rock solid. However, with an annualised DPU of 8.64c and today's closing price of $1.47, I am not too crazy about it. The yield is only 5.88% or so.

NAV/unit: $1.29
Gearing ratio: 30.3%
Interest cover: 4.43x

Technically, we have a bearish harami candlestick pattern formed over the last two sessions. Bearish pressure, if persists, could see the counter testing the support provided by the rising 200dMA which is currently approximating $1.41.

Buy some at $1.41 for a distribution yield of 6.13%? If you are happy with this, why not? :)

FCT 4Q10 results.

AK71 said...

Hi Victor,

I should have provided you with the link to my other blog as well since you mentioned silver:

Investments: Gold and silver.

:)

Anonymous said...

Of course I have visited your other blog. Don't you know I'm already a fan? :)

Victor

AK71 said...

Hi Victor,

Thanks for letting me know. ;p

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