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Hock Lian Seng: Running out of gas?

Thursday, January 13, 2011

This counter had been sleeping for some time. Yesterday, it stirred, forming a wickless white candle on the back of higher volume. The bullish candlestick followed through today as price touched a high of 33.5c before closing at 32c, forming a very long upper wick in the process. 32c, thus, remains a formidable resistance with some history backing it.


Although the OBV shows sharp accumulation, both MFI and RSI are in their overbought regions. Price could have moved up too much and too quickly. In case of a pullback, I expect strong support to be found at 30c. Any attempt by the counter to move higher in price could see selling pressure once again as people who bought at 33c might try to break even and get out of what might have been a hasty buy decision.

"If price tests 29c, I would buy more. 29c is also where we find the 138.2% Fibo line. This should lend support in case of retracement." Buying more at 29c almost three months ago has proven to be a good decision.

Related post:
Hock Lian Seng: Buying more?

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hi AK,

I was contemplating buying more at $0.32 but restrained myself since chasing hot stock is not my style.
Oh yes, another reason was that i was looking forward to hear your views first.

Not sure if this counter is part of those rotational plays going around penny stocks during this bullrun period. But if this rally is genuinely backed by some good news not yet made public.. then i'll have to say: "Ho Say liao" :)

Rgds
Allan

AK71 said...

Hi Allan,

I do not like to chase as well. I like buying at supports in an uptrend or when a counter is basing. The wait could be longer before we are rewarded (if at all) but it is something my heart can deal with. :)

Crossing fingers. ;)

Anonymous said...

Hey AK71

Can I request a post from you. Could you do a very layman's simplified post on cashflow models, discounted and dividend models? I want to know how to value companies based on fundamentals. Thanks so much
-James Choo

AK71 said...

Hi James,

I am going to be lazy here as a fellow blogger (Jay at Time to Huat) has done a good job with this one. Please visit the following links:

http://timetohuat.sillypore.com/2010/11/03/stock-valuation-models-part1-nav-model/

http://timetohuat.sillypore.com/2010/11/15/stock-valuation-models-part2-%E2%80%93-expected-return/

http://timetohuat.sillypore.com/2010/11/26/stock-valuation-models-part3-%E2%80%93-discount-cash-flow-model/

http://timetohuat.sillypore.com/2010/12/07/stock-valuation-models-part4-%E2%80%93-discounted-dividend-model/

Happy reading! :)

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