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Capitaland: Testing supports.

Tuesday, March 29, 2011

Just after reading in The EDGE this past weekend that JP Morgan "upgraded the Singapore property sector from underweight to overweight largely because it believes the market is discounting physical market price declines of 12-40% which are too bearish", today, The EDGE reported that "Morgan Stanley downgraded the sector to cautious from in-line"!

JP Morgan's top picks were Capitaland and CDL. Today, these companies' share prices declined and underperformed the STI. Anyone who bought shares in these companies after JP Morgan's call would have lost money today.

This is why it is important that we do not rely solely on analysts and take their words as the Gospel truth. Listen to JP Morgan or Morgan Stanley? Your guess is as good as mine. Having said this, don't take my words as the Gospel truth either. Please read the disclaimer at the end of my blog. Oh dear, am I getting confused?

On 27 March, I said that if price should weaken, "I see immediate support at $3.27, followed by $3.24" and a low of $3.23 was touched today before closing at $3.26. Downside momentum is strong and trading volume is more than double that of the session before. It would be interesting to see if the share price would form a higher low or a lower low. With the last low at $3.08 (17 March), it would be very bearish indeed if a lower low should be formed.

Keep an eye on the volume if price should decline. A low volume pullback could suggest a buying opportunity. Wait, didn't Morgan Stanley just downgrade the sector? Why should we think of buying? Tough question. Decide for yourself.







Related post:
Capitaland: To sell or to buy?

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

dear AK,

your blog is seldom funny but today i wanted to laugh after reading the "gospel truth" thing. i think it is hilarious but more so now i realized that u r also a human after all, can joke : )

i have confidence in my Capitaland although i am bleeding too (bought at $3.80). if the stock is fundamentally strong & there is a holding power, we have nothing to worry. having said that, this is just my personal confidence in Capitaland.

KM

AK71 said...

Hi KM,

I do have a funny bone. ;)

It is just that investment is a serious business and I try not to come across as being flippant or cavalier. I decided to give in to my sense of humour just now. I am glad you like it and good luck with Capitaland. :)

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