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Golden Agriculture: Accumulation mode.

Friday, April 29, 2011

Anyone who has been following my blog recently would know that I have been accumulating shares of Golden Agriculture. Today, I bought more shares in the company at 66.5c a share. Do I intend to buy more if price should weaken? Yes, I would.

I am confident that the demand for crude palm oil (CPO) will strengthen as an edible oil as well as for the production of bio-fuel. With increasing affluence in Asia, especially in India and China, consumption is on an upward trajectory. With crude oil once again north of US$100 a barrel, we could see a stronger return of bio-fuel as a less expensive alternative. The fundamentals support higher CPO prices in future.

CPO has retreated to RM3,270 a ton from a high of RM3,960 in February. This is a decline of more than 17%. There are signs that the steepest part of the correction is over as price has managed to stay above RM3,230 a ton since late March.

Golden Agriculture's fortunes are probably the most levered to the price of CPO amongst the CPO companies listed in Singapore. Its share price took a dive from a high of 83c on 4 Jan 2011 to just 61c on 23 Feb 2011 for a loss of 26.5%. Devastating for anyone who got in at or near the high? Quite. Could price continue to move south?


Well, technically, I get the impression that the counter is oversold. As the ADX is at 11 and the DIs approximate 20, there is no strong trend or a trend per se. Volume has reduced again today as price found support at 66c and this is where the uptrend support which originated on 23 Feb is found. Stochastics is still in oversold territory and could we see it forming a higher low?

I always say that TA is about probabilities and never certainties. So, in the event that price moved lower, where is the next support? If the trendline support originating from the low of 23 Feb were to break, I see the next support at 65c. This is also a more ideal entry price I identified some time back when I was thinking of re-initiating a long position in this stock. More ideal because it was the top of a very lengthy basing process which started in early January 2010 and ended in October of the same year.


By drawing a Fibo fan using the low of 23 Feb and the high of 11 Apr, 65c is also where we would find the 78.6% Fibo fan line next week. For good measure, I used the low of 25 May 2010 and connected it to the low of 23 Feb 2011 which gave me another trendline support. Guess what. This line actually approximates the 78.6% Fibo fan line mentioned earlier.

65c could be the next strong support. If price were to test 65c, I am buying more.

4 comments:

ortho said...

Hi AK,
Did yr 65c Q executed? I have Q-ed mine since Sunday but not yet get any... do you forsee the price to drop further?

AK71 said...

Hi ortho,

My buy order at 65c was not filled but my buy order at 65.5c was filled.

Do I foresee the price declining further? I wish I could see the future with certainty. ;)

Technically, the counter is looking oversold. Anymore downside is likely to be limited. I am accumulating on any weakness. :)

Anonymous said...

AK

did you manage to get any at 64cts?

btw whenever you choose to go long on a stock, whats the time frame you are looking at?

Confused!

AK71 said...

Hi Confused,

My overnight buy order at 65c was filled. Further selling pressure could push price to test the very long term trendline support and this approximates 62c. Could happen if the bearish tone continues.

I am of the opinion that downside should be limited and 62c, if tested, would hold up. I am accumulating. :)

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