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NOL: Out of the doldrums?

Friday, April 8, 2011

NOL formed a higher low on 28 March although it has yet to form a higher high. The impetus for this blog post is NOL's closing above the 20dMA for the first time since 10 March. Together with some other observations, it seems that NOL could be coming out of the doldrums.

Some might remark that NOL promptly sank on 11 March and what makes it different this time? Could not the price sink next Monday? Indeed, it could. This is especially so when we realise that price closed exactly at resistance provided by the 38.2% Fibo fan line.

However, I feel that things are looking up because, on the daily chart:


1. The MACD is higher now than it was on 10 March although it is still rising in negative territory.

2. There has been a prolonged period of low volatility which has resulted in tightening Bollinger bands.

3. As price moved higher lately, volume has not reduced dramatically like it did leading to 10 March.

On the weekly chart:


4. A white candle has formed on higher volume as a detachment from the lower Bollinger band takes place.

5. OBV shows a return of accumulation.

6. Stochastics suggests that the counter is oversold as it found itself trapped in sideways trading.

If there should be a pull back to $1.96 in the next session or two, I might initiate a long position. Near term upside targets are at $2.07 and $2.14 if the upward movement should continue.

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