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Golden Agriculture: FA and TA.

Tuesday, July 5, 2011

I retain a very small long position in Golden Agriculture. The price of crude palm oil (CPO) has made a new low for 2011, closing at RM3,040.

"Inventories are likely to accumulate in the coming months, unless prices fall to around MYR2,700-MYR2,800/ton, levels that might spur strong physical demand for the commodity and prompt traders to buy on dips, said a trading executive in Kuala Lumpur...

"June output is expected to rise 7%-10%, from 1.74 million tons the previous month, and end-June stocks could rise by as much as 24% to 2.38 million tons." Dow Jones Newswires, July 05, 2011 07:17 ET (11:17 GMT).

The longer term fundamentals, given the strong and growing demand for the vegetable oil, are still intact. However, short term weakness could present rather strong downward pressure on prices. Therefore, I am exercising caution and not adding to my long position in Golden Agriculture. This decision is also informed by technical analysis.


If we look at Golden Agriculture's daily chart, the symmetrical triangle is quite obvious. Two thirds to its apex, we could see a movement breaking the triangle in the near future. Up or down? With price finding it hard to recapture support provided by the 200dMA, the bias is towards the downside. With the ADX indicating a lack of trend, look to the Stochastics for clues. It is turning down from the border of the overbought region. Some softness in the counter's share price would not be surprising.


A look at the weekly chart shows that the Stochastics has broken support. A weakened momentum is obvious. If price were to break the symmetrical triangle to the downside, we could see a test of support provided by the 100wMA. 61c? Could happen.


Long holders could be walking on thin ice here. Good luck.


Related post:
Golden Agriculture: Strong resistance.

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