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NeraTel: Added to my long position.

Thursday, November 14, 2013

On 22 July 2013, I mentioned that if the 200d MA did not hold, share price could fall to 66c.

The counter closed at 68.5c yesterday.


Could 66c come to pass? Your guess is as good as mine. Remember that TA is about probability, not certainty.

So, I made a smallish addition to my long position.

If price should test 66c support, I will buy more.

Related post:
NeraTel: A voluminous day of fear.

18 comments:

JW said...

A falling wedge with a head fake and a breakdown...

Careful.....

AK71 said...

Hi JW,

Very cheem TA. Haha... Thanks. :)

AK71 said...

Off the top of my head:

Will benefit from the higher demand for networking equipment.

Strong regional presence and wide range of products.

Attractive dividend yield with 4c DPS. Net cash position.

Price decline is probably due to disappointing 3Q results.

New Malaysian subsidiary and new Nigerian office = higher expenses for now.

More order wins very likely.

However, expect delays in some revenue recognition even as more orders are secured.

SOLIDCORE said...

Hi AK,

I offer a different technical perspective. With RSI in oversold region and closing price lower than average mean, it's a buy. I prefer to keep my TA simple and my FA simpler.

Initiated counter at 0.69 a day ago and prepared to buy at 0.62 instead. :)

Good luck to us both!

AK71 said...

Hi Solidcore,

Keeping things simple makes them manageable. Good idea. ;)

Well, the stochastics also shows that the stock is oversold. But that is all it is saying really. A stock could stay oversold for a long time.

This is where FA comes in for me. If a stock is fundamentally strong and the business is just suffering a temporary set back, then, buy more at lower prices. ;p

SOLIDCORE said...

Hi AK,

With FA on our side, and today's TA reading.....

Using my crystal ball....

TA says the following...

RSI moving upwards together with a positive CMF, with an emerging new base of 68cents....

But my crystal ball is seriously clouded with a chance of meatballs so who knows, maybe someone else's bowl of bak chor mee with meatballs could be more accurate? :)

AK71 said...

Hi Solidcore,

Haha.. For the longest time, I wondered why my crystal ball had holes. Then, I realised it was a bowling ball. -.-"

If price should test support at 66c, I would probably buy more. If the support should go untested, no skin off my nose too.

Unknown said...

I think 60 is the bottom for this round.

Unknown said...

I think 605 is the bottom for this round.

AK71 said...

Hi Unknown,

If 66c support should be broken decisively, then, I cannot tell where the next support or, indeed, bottom might be.

Good of you to share what you think will be the bottom at 60c. :)

SOLIDCORE said...

Hi Unknown,

I think it will recover to 74- 76 cents where I will be happy to sell them to some other person for a quick buck.

Let's see who is right on this one :)

If you're right, I'll be happy to add at 60cents too and buy the same crystal ball that you are using ^_^

AK71 said...

Hi Solidcore,

Wah! I should set up ASSI as the online portal of choice for new and pre-owned crystal balls! ;p

The best position to be in is always one which would benefit from both up and down markets. :)

SOLIDCORE said...

Hi AK,

Ya. I think you better start preparations for crystal balls.

Touching at high of $0.71 so far today, looks like your bowling ball and the meatballs in my bowl of bak chor mee could be right. :)

Good luck to all holding Neratel :)

AK71 said...

Hi Solidcore,

Time to give my bowling ball a well deserved polish, you think? LOL.

Anyway, I can only wait and see what Mr. Market throws my way and act accordingly. :)

SOLIDCORE said...

Hi AK,

Happy to have sold off my entire stake in Neratel a couple of days ago at 73.5 for an early 2014 ang bao. My entire stake is not a lot though, lol :p

Still trying to pick up the resolve and hold long like you but looks like I still have ways to go.

Think the money could be better treated at CRT but with the rather unclear air at the moment in the western and eastern parts of the world, let's see if a dip occurs for entry.

AK71 said...

Hi Solidcore,

Never wrong to lock in some gains, I always say. Congratulations. :)

betta man said...

Hi AK,

referring to the following news, do you think Neratel's dividend payout will be affected ?

http://www.fool.sg/2014/05/09/falling-knife-of-the-week-nera-telecommunications-limited/

AK71 said...

Hi betta man,

I believe that a 4c DPS is sustainable. Neratel's EPS is much higher than that even with the weakness in certain business segments taken into consideration.

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