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"E-book" by AK

Second "e-book".

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Accordia Golf Trust: Blood in the golf course.

Friday, August 29, 2014

Regular readers know that I do a bit of trading and that I like to look when there is blood in the streets. What about blood in golf courses? I am impartial.



Just a dash of technical analysis and a dose of luck.

Immediate resistance is at 80c. If that should break, the next resistance levels are at 82c and 84c.

7 comments:

apex property investment said...

Great! Set it for 0.82~

OT83 said...

AK with crystal ball must have bought it at 0.775.

Tony said...

Daiwa bought a lot at the cost 0f 82.

Capricon said...

AK
How do you determine it as "blood on the streets" ? Though 20% down from IPO, it can lower and as a new counter, resistance and support are not as obvious.

Or it is purely from multiple TA indicators that points a turnaround and you trade?

Thanks

AK71 said...

Hi Capricon,

Top of my head answer:

97c to 76c is an almost 22% plunge from its IPO price. People who got in at IPO were and still are bleeding profusely. I think there is already quite a bit of blood in AGT Street. Of course, there could be more blood in future.

TA answer:

As price went lower, volume became lower too. It could be a sign of weak holders selling as the IPO was 0.9x subscribed in Japan and 0.7x subscribed in Singapore. Many investors probably got more than they wanted at IPO.

I like to look at momentum oscillators for confirmation of a basing process but most of them need more time to form. The only one available was the OBV. You might remember that I talked about this before in my blog.

Look at the OBV and we will see how the decline became less steep and was more or less flat for a few sessions. Of course, in the last session, a higher low was formed.

Looking at price, volume and OBV, I decided to initiate a long position. When 76c was tested again and a white spinning top formed, I waited for confirmation. The next day, the downtrend was broken and I added to my long position.

Jingle Bell said...

Hi Ak,
I recall reading that you usually don't sell off your shares if the price of your shares you bought should fall. And you will likely buy more at a lower price. But now, In this case that you are trading, how would your trading approach be different if the price of AGT had fell instead?
Looking forward to your reply?
JB

AK71 said...

Hi JB,

Well, I wouldn't sell if the fundamentals were intact. I think that is an important condition to bear in mind.

If the price fell because the fundamentals had gone down the toilet, then, there would be a very good reason to sell.

With AGT, I am convinced that at an IPO price of 97c a unit, it was simply not worth it. However, at much lower prices, it could look more attractive. Remember what Peter Lynch said? ;)

In an earlier blog post, I mentioned 74c. There is nothing sacred about 74c but at around that price, I could become interested. What about under 70c? I would probably would be more interested.

So, reading the charts, although chances were good that unit price would rise and it did, if it had fallen instead, with 76c closer to 70c than 97c, I would probably have held on. :)

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