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Position sizing and emotional well being.

Thursday, August 11, 2016

AK 

Marco Polo ... hit new Low.
Sighz. I have too much oil and gas in my portfolio. 


AK said:
"If it is causing you distress, you are probably overexposed..."





hi AK,
i didn know marco polo has so high debt . do u think marco polo will go into bankcrupt?
serious, i need your advice. if you have sold it, just let me know.
i really want to keep my remaning capital.
has losing a lot from peak 37 cent. 
Thank you!

AK said:
"I am still holding my position in MPM.
I don't know if MPM will go bankrupt.
The possibility exists, of course."


All readers who feel the same way, please read related posts below.


Related posts:

17 comments:

tong said...

James 3:2-10

For we all stumble in many ways. And if anyone does not stumble in what he says, he is a perfect man, able also to bridle his whole body. If we put bits into the mouths of horses so that they obey us, we guide their whole bodies as well. Look at the ships also: though they are so large and are driven by strong winds, they are guided by a very small rudder wherever the will of the pilot directs. So also the tongue is a small member, yet it boasts of great things. How great a forest is set ablaze by such a small fire! And the tongue is a fire, a world of unrighteousness. The tongue is set among our members, staining the whole body, setting on fire the entire course of life, and set on fire by hell. ...

tong said...

James 3

Taming the Tongue

3 Not many of you should become teachers, my fellow believers, because you know that we who teach will be judged more strictly. 2 We all stumble in many ways. Anyone who is never at fault in what they say is perfect, able to keep their whole body in check.

AK71 said...

Hi tong,

Very cheem... A vow of silence might be more useful than just clearing the mind of distraction. Something for me to think about. -.-"

Disclaimer said...

Ak,

I think that if you are losing sleep over a losing stock you have overt extended yourself.
I also have some trades that didn't workout for me, but the position sizes are small and not the main bulk of my money. Much of my money I put in cpf, savings first. Then some portion in stocks. There are some stocks that never recovered after the Lehman crisis. That one is still lingering. Even at market highs, it never got back. So I recently went for the dividend machines lesson that you recommended. Was worth the money and I learnt to buy into stable companies, with the TA that I learnt for the past few years. Had so far not disillusioned.

Disclaimer said...

Before you buy have to define the risk. If you cannot lose the money then cannot buy risky things like preferred stock, stock or corporate bonds, just put in treasury, govt cpf, savings, at least your principal is still there, although value still dropping.
Otherwise buy etf also better

arithmos said...

Tong quoting from James is entirely out of context for this blog. In fact it is about self righteousness in a christian context... which us funny because by Tong quoting this verse, it points back to him. Religious people like to quote this verse (using words to put down people) but ..

Please carry on AK, we all know you are talking to yourself and we are hearing your thoughts but we are responsible for our own decisions.

AK71 said...

Hi Disclaimer,

The acid test as to whether a person is able to take the ups and downs as an investor are the downs. Of course, it is not just about financial ability but emotional ability.

Peace of mind is priceless and this is one reason why the bulk of my portfolio is geared towards investing for income. I am glad it has worked for you too. :)

AK71 said...

Hi arithmos,

Thanks for the explanation. Appreciate it.

I am not very religious and I always joke that Mr. Tan S. A. is waiting for me to join him. ;p

tong said...

arithmos No it is use to build ppl up not down depend how u see it. the acid test is that what you write on line blog is not same influence as talking to yourself privately. pl dont deceive ourself lah?

SMK said...

don't follow the guru even if the guru is talking to himself.
because you don't fully understand the guru's emotional state of mind even if you understand his words.
later you got spanked and blame the guru.

to the self talking ak, sometimes good intentions doesn't mean the actions don't hurt.
I like that you have tried to be more mindful nowadays and less categorical.
thumbs up.

sads said...

Hi AK, with the recent proposed delay of bond payment by Marco Polo Marine ongoing, any thoughts?

AK71 said...

Hi sads,

In my portfolio, Marco Polo Marine has been a speculative position for some time now. As with all speculations, things could have gone swimmingly well or really wrong. Things are not lethal for Marco Polo Marine but they are certainly negative.

I don't have a working crystal ball but I will say that the Lee family will do whatever they can to save the business. They have more than 60% stake in Marco Polo Marine and will be the biggest loser if it goes under. In the worst case scenario, I am prepared to this one write off.

sads said...

Thank you AK for the reply. Will see how it unfold upcoming months ahead.

AK71 said...

Marco Polo Marine said on Thursday (Sept 22) there may be a "substantial doubt about the group's ability to continue as a going concern".

Its statement to the Singapore Exchange accompanied its launch of an exercise seeking consent from bond holders to delay repayment by three years of notes worth S$50 million that are due next month.

The company is seeking to amend the maturity date of the series 001, 5.75 per cent fixed rate notes from Oct 18, 2016, to Oct 18, 2019.

In much detail, the marine logistics services provider said the group had experienced unaudited net losses of S$7.5 million for the nine months ended June 30, 2016, and expects to record net losses for the fiscal year ending Sept 30, 2016, mainly because of the lower utilisation rates of its vessels and lower charter rates, as well as lower revenues from its shipbuilding business.

Marco Polo Marine also said it expects to be highly leveraged for the next several years and may not be able to generate sufficient cash flows to meet its debt service obligations, including payments under the notes.

As of June 30, 2016, it had approximately S$186.5 million of current interest-bearing borrowings (including the S$50 million notes) and S$67.3 million in non-current interest-bearing borrowings.

It said if it successfully implements its restructuring of the S$50 million notes, it will still have substantial indebtedness and expects to reclassify the outstanding principal amount of the notes from current borrowings to non-current borrowings. It may also incur additional bank borrowings.

"The issuer's substantial indebtedness could adversely affect its results of operations and could have important consequences for noteholders and for the group," said the company.

Source:
http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/marco-polo-marine-express-doubt-on-ability-to-continue-as-going-concern

AK71 said...

Despite doubt on its ability to operate as a going concern, Marco Polo
Marine ($0.069, down 0.3 cent)’s CEO Sean Lee said the group has a viable
business even though he admits that operations is tough going. Earlier this
month Marco Polo Marine also hired KPMG to conduct an independent
business review, and the report will be out soon.

Currently, ship building made up 41% of the company revenue for the nine
months in FY16. While the higher-margin ship repairs “non-cyclical but
seasonal business” is more stable, we note that it is also very weak. Ship
repairs contributed 23% to revenue for the nine months FY16. The other
part of the business which has been hardest hit by the oil slump is the ship
chartering of tug boats and barges where charter rates have tumbled due
to excess supply.

In a media interview this week, Mr Sean Lee stressed that the company is
“not a Swiber” which defaulted on its bonds in July and is under interim
judicial management. He also said the company’s shipyard is “one of a
handful in Indonesia able to do a good job” and is giving customers Singapore
quality with Indonesian cost. Indonesia contributed to 61% of total revenue
in 2015. Its shipyard is in Batam, Indonesia. While gross profi t margins have
fallen sharply, to 12-20% from 25% earlier this year, it is still positive.

Source:
Lim & Tan

AK71 said...

Swissco Holdings will file for interim judicial management over the next few days - the third energy-related firm here to take that option in recent months.

The decision comes as the main lenders have rejected the rig and vessel chartering group's debt restructuring plan, the firm told The Straits Times yesterday.

United Overseas Bank is Swissco's largest bank lender, followed by DBS Bank. Swissco carries $255 million of bank debt owed to seven lenders, which it had planned to pay off via asset sales and the conversion of debt to equity.


Source:
http://www.straitstimes.com/business/swissco-to-file-for-interim-judicial-management

Swiber Holdings has defaulted on a coupon payment due yesterday for its 450 million yuan (S$92.3 million) fixed-rate notes - the second bond payment it has defaulted on since its judicial management application in July.

According to the judicial managers' report earlier this month, Swiber has US$258.6 million (S$354 million) outstanding as of July 31 on three notes under a $1 billion multi-currency medium-term programme.


Source:
http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/swiber-defaults-on-bond-payment-again

AK71 said...

A noteholders' meeting seeking consent for the restructuring of S$100 million in medium-term notes on the books of Rickmers Trust Management Pte Ltd was adjourned after failing to garner the required threshold to justify a vote.

A noteholders' meeting seeking consent for the restructuring of S$100 million in medium-term notes on the books of Rickmers Trust Management Pte Ltd was adjourned after failing to garner the required threshold to justify a vote.

Rickmers Maritime had guided earlier that noteholders and unitholders will incur 100 per cent losses and senior lenders another 50-65 per cent loss under a liquidation scenario.


Source:
http://www.singaporelawwatch.sg/slw/headlinesnews/91599-rickmers-maritime-forced-to-adjourn-noteholders-meeting.html#sthash.21pKRZFb.dpbs

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