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"Noble Group will be worth $7.00 a share."

Friday, November 24, 2017

Reader says...
I followed the call of a famous trader in Singapore and bought Noble in May.

He drew a chart and said it will go up to $7.00.




I am still holding but the price keeps falling. I put in a lot of money. I don't know what to do now.

Should I cut loss?



AK says...
When was the last time I did a TA on Noble Group?

See the blog: HERE.


I always say that TA is about probability and not certainty.






It is too dangerous for me to suggest if you should hold, cut or add.


However, I would suggest that you pick up TA if you want to be a trader.


See recommended books for TA: HERE.


Regular readers know that I used to do quite a bit of trading and I said as much in this year's "Evening with AK and friends".


See the blog: HERE.







If you want to start a zhi char store, make sure you know how to handle a wok.

If you don't know how and pay a shi fu to do it, you are at his mercy.


So, if you want to trade stocks, make sure you know how to read charts. :)





---------
In case you just dropped in, there was a blog published earlier today:
Investing in high yield Asian bonds.

17 comments:

Laurence said...

Reminds me of Little Red Riding Hood mistaking the Big Bad Wolf as her Loving Grandmother.
And today's news gobbles up another another massive chunk of succulent flesh:

Noble Group plummets as company transfers stock to ex-staff

[SINGAPORE] The selloff in Noble Group Ltd deepened after the embattled commodities trader transferred more than 14 million shares to employees who are leaving the company as it disposes of North American energy assets in a drawn-out bid to survive.

The shares plunged as much as 8.7 per cent to 16.9 Singapore cents, the lowest since 1999, before trading at 17 Singapore cents by 1:12pm.

Noble Group plummets as company transfers stock to ex-staff

AK71 said...

Hi Laurence,

Thanks for sharing this.

I guess this explains the reader's anxiety.

Dividend Warrior said...

Hi AK,

What's your opinion on AIMS AMP's latest private placement move? Thanks.

AK71 said...

Hi DW,

I shared this exchange with a reader in the comments section of a blog on AA REIT recently:
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT and free money for AK.

Reader says...
What repercussions will it have on existing holders of AAReit based on their new announcement on more shares at 1.34-1.35?

AK says...
Logically, DPU should decline a little.
But if they are able to increase income, then, no difference.

Dividend Warrior said...

Thanks AK. The price still seemed stable after XD. The rental from the newly-completed Beyonics property should help the DPU next year. Cheers!

AK71 said...

Hi DW,

AA REIT is the largest investment in my portfolio and one of my longest.

I hope I know it as well as I think I do. :)

AK71 said...

Fact that even Noble’s Founder and largest shareholder has resigned as its Chairman and subsequently cut his holdings in the open market from 18.07% to 17.94% at 10 cents /share, it clearly signals that all is unwell at the company.

Lim & Tan, 25 March 2018.

AK71 said...

Noble’s key institutional shareholder Prudential Singapore sold 1 million shares at 7.2 cents and reduced their stake to 65.86 million shares or 4.96% of the company. By doing so, Prudential Singapore has gone below the 5% disclosure level and further share sales will no longer be required to be disclosed. We expect them to continue to sell their stake and be completely out of the stock. We maintain our “Sell/Avoid” recommendation on Noble Group.

Lim & Tan, 5 April 2018.

AK71 said...

We maintain that the only viable option for existing equity holders of Noble would be to vote in favor of the current RSA as proposed by management. But, we do not recommend putting in new capital given the immediate 80% dilution post restructuring.

Source: Lim & Tan

AK71 said...

Francis Tay feels cheated. The former Singapore civil servant says he's lost almost S$50,000 in the implosion of Noble Group Ltd, the commodity trading giant. He also says shareholders like him have been let down by regulators whose job it is to protect them from the sort of crisis that's brought the company to the brink.

Source: The Business Times.

Reader says...
Sad case.
Refer to your previous post on "bullish calls" from "bullish" analysts (vampires)...

AK says...
Very cham liddat ๐Ÿ˜ž
Don't blame the analysts (and SGX).
Take ownership of our decision.

Reader says...
Agree, but sometimes when one hear whispers from somewhere, it can influence one's decision too, need to be disciplined.

AK says...
When we hear whispers and we buy, we are speculating and not investing.
As long as we know we are speculating and don't bite off more than we can chew, we should be OK.

AK71 said...

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/%E2%80%98i-was-cheated%E2%80%99%C2%A0tales-from-the-collapse-of-commodity-giant-noble

Ben said...

Hi AK,

Let me share my story.

I bought one counter at the average price of $1.71 sometimes in 2013. My invested amount is about $80,000. Currently, the market value is $18,000 (at $0.40) as of today. This is a paper loss of $62,000. I don't regret my decision as I treat it as an investment lesson. Currently, my stock investment status stands at the paper loss of $41K plus as of today. This is taking into consideration of the realised profit and received dividend over the years. The loss status is mainly due to this counter.

The above circumstance has given me a valuable lesson in not overleveraging on one counter. This counter used to cover about 70% of my entire portfolio. I have since reduced it to 46% through the acquisition of other counters.

You may have wondered why I did not liquidate the monies in this counter. The reason is that I want this counter to be a consistent reminder to me that it is not advisable to hedge most of the holdings in one counter. You may find this decision to be strange. However, I maintain my decision.

Going forward, I have learnt to be a better investor. I continue to invest the fund (derived from my active income) on a monthly basis. Hence, the weightage of my portfolio in this counter continues to reduce through consistent ploughing into other counters. I limit $10,000 in each counter going forward. Currently, there are 20 counters in my portfolio as things stand.

Ben

AK71 said...

Hi Ben,

Thank you for sharing your story.

Together with an understanding of our motivations and the use of appropriate methods in investing, position sizing is important. :)

See:
Motivations and Methods in investing.

AK71 said...

Kelvin Tan says...

I feel the same regarding Hyflux now ๐Ÿ˜…

AK71 said...

Lee Jiahui says...

Noble bonds, swiber bonds, hyflux bonds, ppl love bonds because they think that all bonds are "safe".

Some ppl are really spoilt, when they have to pay for their mistakes they blame the regulators...

cal cal said...

Learn lesson from AK is cheaper ;)

AK71 said...

Hi cal cal,

Alamak.

Cheaper?

You make it sound like my blog charges a membership fee. -.-"

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