Many people are still waiting on the side, people who do not quite believe in the rally, who might even be getting angry with the optimism, should just make use of this optimism to make some money. I don't believe in being overly bearish or bullish. I believe in being a pragmatist.
If you have missed the earlier river taxis, it's ok. Maybe you don't feel ok about it but it's really ok because there are other river taxis.
Position your money for growth that's going to happen over the next 2 to 3 years. Don't leave it in the bank or in a pillow or in a biscuit tin. I say 2 to 3 years because I believe that we will see another dip in 2012/2013. Until then, I am going to put my money to work.
Given the increased stability and clarity in the global economies, we could benefit a lot more if we adopt a longer time frame in our investments. Don't be too bothered with short term fluctuations in prices as the technical indicators are all pointing up and all the fundamentals have improved significantly.
I have seen so many instances of people who bought a good stock only to grow scared or impatient, letting go of their investments only to see the price forming a new high soon after. I should confess that it has happened to me too. If the trend has not changed, there is no reason to fear. A correction using price or a correction using time shakes out the weaker holders and once all the sellers are out of the way, the price is free to form a new high. In an uptrend, buying during corrections is the way to go. Of course, this is easy to say but might be hard to do. Conquering one's emotions is probably the hardest thing to master as an investor.
The STI moved sideways from August to November before moving higher. This is a correction using time. A sideways movement during an uptrend is more bullish than bearish in nature. We will see the STI moving higher in 2010, I'm sure.
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Saturday, December 26, 2009
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4 comments:
guilty as mention ! will reduce such instances in 2010
Haha.. We are only human. Let's remind each other to conquer our feelings of fear and greed. FA allows us to hold with conviction and TA lets us know when to let go! :)
Hi!
Interesting when you mention another dip ard 2012/2013. Why do you say so? Care to support your statement?
Zac
Hi Zac,
There are many experts out there who are talking about the next crisis and what form it would take. Even common people like us can tell that if we keep printing money indiscriminately, something must give.
Like it or not, the USA and the EC form the major portion of the global economy. If they sink, Asia is not going to do very well either. Big Asian economies like China, India and Indonesia might escape recession but the rest of Asia will suffer negative growth.
Jim Rogers think that the currencies of debtor countries are worthless and they will default one by one. Marc Faber thinks that these countries will continue to print more money to stave off the inevitable. So, what we have will be a currency crisis. It will not happen immediately but it will happen in time.
Already, we see countries such as India, Sri Lanka and China beefing up their reserves in physical gold. Gold has intrinsic value, not like paper money. China is worried about its foreign reserves in US treasuries being worth less over time. Rightfully so.
So, a crisis is looming but how do we tell when it's happening? We can't really. But I said 2012/2013? This is where it gets a bit esoteric and too lengthy for me to put in a comment box. I will provide you with a few links and you can decide for yourself:
http://garyscommonsense.blogspot.com/2009/10/9-years-and-counting.html
http://www.zealllc.com/2009/bearcyc.htm
http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewarticle/articleid/3507204
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