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Thoughts on methodology

Friday, December 25, 2009

1. Buying when a stock has broken out of its base formation or long term downtrend in the early stage might be good. This is what pure TA guys would do: wait for confirmation before buying in. I don't do this because I look at FA first and, then, TA. If FA is good, I look for a nice price to enter using TA.

2. Buying a stock when it has broken out of its base formation or long term downtrend and has gone way up is a bad idea as that carries greater risk.

3. Personally, I like to be where the action will be rather than where the action is. I'm not very good with the latter and usually end up losing money. So, looking for early signs of a possible breakout scenario is what I've been doing for months now. I continue to do this and I like stocks of fundamentally good companies which are still in their base formations, either primary or secondary.

4. The stocks which are testing the top of base formations and long term resistance trendlines should ideally have limited downside: TA should show rising MAs closely supporting the prices even as the formation or resistance trendline is being tested. FA should show a robust set of numbers which tells the investor to stay vested with confidence. This is why I'm vested in counters like Saizen REIT, for example. This is why I am not vested in Genting, for example.

Everyone should develop a method that works for him and one that he is comfortable with.

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