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Three more months to the end of the year. Lots of things have happened in the first 9 months of the year. I want to zoom in on the investment front and record some of my thoughts.
The strategy to be invested in S-REITs for income is still working. Of course, with the spectre of the Fed cutting back on QE and a possible increase in interest rates in the next 2 or 3 years, Mr. Market has turned cautious on leveraged investments like S-REITs. This is only natural. Unit prices of S-REITs have become more realistic as a result.
When Mr. Market is pessimistic, that is when we are likely to get good deals. As to what is a good deal, I am sure this is rather subjective. Every person would have a different idea of what is an acceptable margin of safety. Every person would have a different perception of a REIT's prospects.
Having built up a relatively large portfolio of S-REITs, I devoted more resources to investing in what I believe are undervalued stocks, something which I continue to do in 2013.
So, essentially, what I have done is to keep what has worked well for me thus far while expanding my investments in certain companies, recognising possibly more difficult times ahead for S-REITs.
This is an approach that requires more work than simply getting passive income from S-REITs but the time when it was a no-brainer to buy and hold S-REITs probably ended sometime in the second half of 2012.
For 9M 2013, how much did I receive in passive income from S-REITs?
$92,872.65
Full year 2013 income from S-REITs is most likely going to be lower compared to 2012 because I sold a significant portion of my investment in LMIR earlier this year and also because Saizen REIT distributes income half yearly (i.e. there is no income distribution in December from Saizen REIT).
Also, we might want to bear in mind that, although hedged, the weaker Indonesian Rupiah and Japanese Yen could result in lower income distributions in S$ terms for unit holders of these REITs in the year 2014.
With twice as much industrial space being scheduled for completion in 2014 and 2015 than any single year in the past decade, the possibility of stagnating or even a reduction in income for industrial S-REITs in future cannot be discounted. This is why looking at WALE (Weighted Average Lease Expiry) of industrial S-REITs is more important now.
Although I would have liked nothing better than to sit back and collect passive income regularly from S-REITs, doing very little else, I decided to move out of my comfort zone. For sure, there were bumps along the way but my efforts have generally been rewarding thus far.
What did I do?
I increased my investments in stocks which are likely to be dependable passive income generators such as SPH and NeraTel.
I also hold long positions in stocks which I believe would benefit from the Chinese consumption story such as CapitaMalls Asia, PCRT and Wilmar.
Any dividend from investing in these stocks and any gain from trading would go towards cushioning the possible decline in income from S-REITs in future.
Up to 15 September 2013, the total gain from trading this year amounts to:
$188,625.13
It was fortuitous the way the China Minzhong saga turned out. It preserved my trading gains and grew it rather significantly at the same time. Apart from my long position in Wilmar, all other investments are in the black.
So, what is my plan for the future?
Nothing profound really.
If prices were to decline much more, I hope I would be brave enough to buy more. If prices were to rise much more, I hope I would remember to sell some.
The grand scheme is to augment and not to replace my passive income portfolio.
For sure, it doesn't mean that I think S-REITs are going the way of the Dodo. Indeed, they are still good investments for income at the right prices. For me, passive income from S-REITs will still be an important pillar in achieving financial freedom. This is unlikely to change in the foreseeable future.
Remember, this blog is not meant to instruct but if anyone finds it inspiring, I will be happy enough.
Related posts:
1. 2012 full year income from S-REITs.
2. Never lose money in real estate and S-REITs?
3. Do not love unless it is worth the loving.
4. Motivations and methods in investing.
5. Be cautious climbing the S-REIT tree.
6. Be comfortable with being invested.
Bloggy Award
78 comments:
Wah..ak..
cool..well done..
so much passive income.
Hi AK,
Respect for you on your portfolio! =). Passive income all the way! =))
Hi yeh,
Well, I am quite realistic and recognise that it is not iron clad. :)
Hi Gary,
Pretty sad if people respect me for my investments. LOL. ;p
Anyway, this year, I did much more work. Not passive income all the way. :(
Hi AK,
I applaud you for revealing your dividends & capital gain amount.
I see it as a inspiration, keep up the work, i like to learn from your insight & analysis in the years to come if possible :)
Wow didnt know you had so much trading income. Did you have that much too in previous years or was the cmz saga contributed much to it?
I think you can proudly say now that you are glad you didnt take triple science back then and become a dentist now!!!^^ heheheh
Hi Solace,
I hope that we get to learn from each other in the years to come. For sure, there is much that I do not know. :)
Hi AK,
Congrats for your investment success, you have build a rather strong foundation which will be able to withstand any storms of the future.
I am rather surprised to hear you selling LIMR earlier this year, btw it is rather understandable if you have a Hugh MOS and want to take some profits and hence profits off the table.
I have instead accumulated more. OH NO!! It scares me when we bet at different direction. But well, maybe thats why the nick suits me!!I blog about this Lippo, at
http://sillyinvestor.wordpress.com/2013/09/11/lippomall-overshooting-to-the-downside/
visit my 寒舍and leave a gift (comment)if you are free, will ya, and let me know if you agree with my analysis. Come only if free, busy nevermind =P
Oh ya, just curious, does some of your trading gain and passive income overlapped??
If not,you seem to be doing better at trading!
Hi B,
Well, I did a bit of trading in 2011 and 2012. Not much. Money made from the stock market back then was mostly in the form of income distributions from S-REITs.
The general offer by Indofood for China Minzhong accounts for some 25% of trading gains YTD. The rest were from Sound Global, Yongnam, LMIR, PCRT, NeraTel, Old Chang Kee, CapitaMalls Asia, VARD, QAF, Soup Restaurant and China Minzhong again (before Indofood's GO).
Well, I did do triple science and double maths for "O" levels or what some called the "Medicine" combination. I squandered that because I decided to follow my heart. I still think I would have made more money as a doctor or a dentist. ;p
Hi Mike,
I sold some of my investment in LMIR not because I wanted to lock in gains but rather because I was running out of patience with the CEO. Now, on hindsight, it was a stroke of luck that I sold when I did. It was at a price of 52.5c a unit. LMIR seems to be doing better now with this new CEO. Things have changed for the better. :)
Trading gains and passive income don't overlap. Trading gains come from buying and selling stocks. Hence, the term "trading". Passive income, in this instance, is from distributions received from my investments in S-REITs.
Definitely, the ROI from trading is much higher than the ROI from holding on to my investments in S-REITs to collect passive income. Well, the former requires more work. So, if the ROI is not higher, then, why bother?
Anyway, like what happened with China Minzhong, I am sure I was just lucky. ;p
I do visit your blog and when I have something to say, you know I will say it. :D
Hi AK, this is certainly very well done. Just to clarify, do your trading gain includes Reits P/L ?
Hi Cory,
Trading gains are realised gains. Paper gains are not included. So, trading gains here include the gain from a partial divestment of my long position in LMIR earlier this year.
Hi AK,
For a moment, you sounded like Jim Rogers when you wrote "If prices were to decline much more, I hope I would be brave enough to buy more. If prices were to rise much more, I hope I would remember to sell some."
Many thanks for taking time to show us your "trading room" for what has been a successful first 9 months - congratulations! - i trust you will close the year in an even stronger position. So despite your choice of words, you are way beyond financial freedom, AK. To me, your down-to-earth humility is what kept me continue reading your investment analysis :)
Regards,
ivan
Hi Capricorn,
You are right to say that I bought aggressively when prices were much lower and not just during the GFC either. It shows the importance of having a war chest ready when opportunities present themselves. :)
It is not important how large my war chest was. It is meaningless to try and have the same size war chest as somebody else's. We have different circumstances, I am sure. Instead, it is more important how large your war chest can be. And in this department, size matters. ;)
There is definitely a higher purpose to achieving financial freedom. I have no doubt that if we choose to do the right things, with a bit of luck, all of us can achieve financial freedom.
There are many roads to Rome. Some longer, some shorter. Some are easier, some are less so. Eventually, we should all get to Rome if we stay the course.
Like I have said before, if AK71 can do it, so can you. Believe it. :)
Hi Ivan,
Oh dear. I sound like Jim Rogers? I am ageing too quickly. :(
I certainly hope to close 2013 in a stronger position. Where passive income from S-REITs is concerned, there shouldn't be any surprises. Whether there would be anymore trading gains, however, is harder to say. Crossing fingers. :)
Hi Capricorn,
That's the spirit! :)
Here is some music to get us fired up:AK71 is watching Fairy Tail!
My eyes are poping...
Thanks for the disclosure. O.O
Hi INVS 2.0,
Eyes popping? Oh, dear. That sounds painful. I am so sorry. I hope you have recovered. ;p
But I have no $ to invest in non-REIT side, the disadvantage of not being working with an active income.
I can only sit aside and collect $ from REITs and hopefully can toss some into undervalued stocks like Neratel, Yongnam, Marco, etc.
Hearing the news of new industrial spaces appearing in next two years and the possible dilution in income, does freak me out a little.
As I am devoted much of my time in current studies now, REIT provides an easy and convenient way than undervalued non-REIT stocks (not enough $ is also a factor).
Looks like I should look at some non-industrial REITs to diversify. What do you think? :)
Hi INVS 2.0,
Well, I am bothered enough not to add to my current long positions. However, I am not bothered enough to be freaked out. ;p
I think people sometimes get so caught up with how to make their investments work in the best way possible and how to get the most they could out of their money that they forget cash is an asset too.
Some bloggers, for example, have been transparent enough to reveal how much cash they hold and in certain cases, they are almost 100% invested. Their war chest is almost non-existent.
Assuming that our investments have relatively strong fundamentals, to have a peace of mind, we should just have a meaningful war chest ready. It is quite simple. :)
I have a ready-reserve but not rich enough to buy so many undervalued companies at the same time.
Fortunately, with my temp pay during the semester break, and soon the Q3 DPU rolling in, my reserves will be replenished again, and ready for any possible drops in 2014. ;)
Nice... my role model :)
Hi INVS 2.0,
Sounds good to me. The stock market will always be there. All in good time. :)
Hi Ray,
The government doesn't like people who want to stay single, who don't want to have kids and who want to retire early. I am a terrible role model. :(
Hi AK,
Thanks for sharing your investment gains so far. You're always an inspiration to others. After seeing your post, I'm more motivated to continue what I'm doing. It makes me believe even more that it can be done. Thanks again ;)
Are you working in employment? Are you satisfied with your financial status? Are you financially independent at this stage?
Hi AK,
I'm a silent reader of your blog for a few months already. I'm also quite a new investor, started only a few months. I noted you are generally a long term investor and yet at the same time, realise you also trade. In your latest posting, you mention a couple of stocks you sold like Neratel and Vard. May I know why you sold them cos I thought they are value stocks?
Hope you can share further as I thought value stocks can be kept 'forever'. Thanks!
It's an individual choice for one to decide on the way one prefer to live his/her life. It's nothing wrong to stay single, don't have kids and to retire early.
In life, it's always good to have options. As long as one feel comfortable with the choice, there is no need to bother what others think and feel. Of course, there is bound to have some criticism on why such people choose to be out of norm. There is no need to bother such hassle. I personally feel that one just need to be responsible for oneself and lead the life to he/she deems right. There is no need to be answerable to others.
We only live once and it makes sense to make everyday lifestyle in accordance to one's preference.
Ben
Hi SG Young Investment,
Yes, unless we are severely disadvantaged in some way, I believe that all of us have immense potential to do better financially. Do we have the will to do it? That needs asking. :)
Hi Rodney,
Yes, I have a day job. :)
I am rather contented with what I have but I believe that I can do better and I should.
Many think that I have achieved financial independence. However, I would like to have a bit more buffer. :)
Hi Cindy,
I am not a value investor per se and I said as much in an interview earlier this year:
Audio interview.
I might buy and hold when I see value. However, I might also trade around a position.
Prices climb walls of worries and go down rivers of hope. There are always trading opportunities. :)
So, for example, I sold some NeraTel when it went above 80c and bought back when its price retraced. My long position is still the same size as before but I made some extra money this way.
If you are a pure value investor, don't listen to me. I am corrupted. :(
Hi Ben,
I agree that we should live for ourselves and not live for others. If we have a choice, why live any differently from the way we would like to? :)
Hi AK,
Thanks for your quick reply.
Frankly, I'm still finding my way around but my inclination is hold my investments for long term and hold for income.
I'm quite interested in Reits but so far, I'm still not invested in Reits cos I haven't found any with yield attractive enough except maybe First Reit. I note that u are also invested in First Reit and in the recent price drop, I wonder if u have accumulated more and if u are likely to accumulate more? :)
Hi Cindy,
Sounds like you have a plan. :)
I always say we should all have a plan, our own plan. There is no one size fits all. If you have a good plan, stick to it. A good plan is not just one that works but it is also one that you are comfortable with. ;)
First REIT? I like it but I am not sure if I like it enough to buy it now. I haven't given it much thought because I am happy with the size of my position right now and I am not in a hurry to add.
Hi Ak,
When there's a will, there will be a way. It is up to us if we want to do it.
Actually I agree with your investment style to buy and hold while still trade at the same time. It is pointless to me if we hold a stock all the way without selling. We'll be missing out many opportunities along the way.
Hi SG Young Investment,
I like to say that if we want something bad enough, we will find a way. Same same. :)
If we can trade around our investments and make some money at the same time, it is extra pocket money. ;p
Hi again,
How do we determine if a stock is overvalued and time to sell? For eg, if price rises by 15% and then it's time to sell?
Hi Cindy,
I do not think there is any one correct answer to this question. You might want to read this:
When to BUY, HOLD or SELL?
I will also suggest that you get these books:
1.How to be One Up On Wall Street?
2. 5 rules for successful stock investing.
There are books which explain Technical Analysis as well but I think you might not be interested in those. :)
AK
You inspired. I am 71K behind you but this is an individual game / choice. I prefer to buy and hold, so much comes from dividend. At 117K for 9 months, is not too bad to save for reinvesting. I like your analysis and have shared your link with many friends. I hope they benefit from you and your writing. Cheers!
Hi havefund,
With $117k in dividend income for 9M 2013, you have outstripped my 9M 2013 passive income from S-REITs by a wide margin. To be precise, you are some $24k ahead!
We must always have a war chest ready. So, I think your plan to stash away dividends is a good idea.
Thanks for sharing my blog with your friends. I hope they will be inspired too. :)
Hi Ak,
Reading the other comments here, I realised there are many other savvy investors too. It's like we're all somehow being drawn to a small community space in this blogging world. Interesting ;)
Let's continue to spread the message so that many others can benefit from it :)
Hi AK, congrates! Your hard work get rewarded. Assume you long live for 100, still long way and imagine how rich you will be!!!
Btw, I think you are lucky in SG, I respect the gov works hard, eg. those industrial parks and Singapore companies projects around the world, gov does really working hard. And, no tax for trading gain.
I think we are all in good position if we believe Sg gov will continue to perform during our life time.
Hi SG Young Investment,
There are times when I feel my age. There are many young and promising people like yourself blogging now. Makes me happy to see that there are so many who care enough to share freely. :)
Encouraging financially savvy readers to guest blog for ASSI is definitely a step in the right direction. :)
Btw, still curious, how you screen those companies? Any system to filter or trace? Or just read randomly and dig deeper when interested? I believe you spend much time in reading?
Hi Ah John,
Thank you. :)
Luck plays a part and we are all lucky to be in Singapore!
I remember Warren Buffett saying that his talents would be useless if he were born into a tribe in Africa, for example. Lucky he was born in the USA. :)
I really do not wish to live to be 100. I would be quite happy to go at 72 as I plan to withdraw my SRS money over a period of 10 years. ;p
Hi Ah John,
I read The Business Times, The EDGE and stuff online. I get ideas from reading. Then, I do a bit more research. :)
Although I like the idea of scuttlebutt, there aren't that many opportunities to do so. For example, some like Keppel Corp. How do we scuttlebutt Keppel Corp? Similarly, how do we scuttlebutt Marco Polo Marine.
So, like WB said before (and he has more resources at his disposal than we do), we aim to be approximately right. That's all we can do.
Thanks AK.
I'll be reading extensively. Your blog has been a great source of information. Keep up the good work and the sharing spirit in this blog!
Cheers!
Hi Cindy,
You are welcome. Thanks for the encouragement. I hope to continue blogging for many more years to come. :)
Hi Ak,
I'm glad to find many other people sharing freely too. In the past I didn't even know that financial bloggers exist in Singapore until I was introduced to your blog. Thanks for sharing for the past few years.
I would love to contribute guest posts to your blog if I have the chance one day. I'm sure even more readers will benefit. ;)
VICOM is a good company, dividend keep going up, monopoly here. I just did car inspection first time, $62 in 10 mins. Just wait a good time to buy in.
Any other such companies to share?
Hi SG Young Investment,
Sure, you are welcome to guest blog anytime as long as it is a topic which you have not blogged about in your own blog and will not be replicating for anyone else. You know how Blogger/Google is quite strict about "cookie cutters".
Just email me the article in a word document. I reserve editorial powers, of course. ;p
For active trading, it really needs lots of time. If hold some fundamental strong companies, should be a good idea too.
Hi Ah John,
Vicom is indeed a good company. Well, it is not a monopoly. I believe the industry is a duopoly.
Still, strong moat. Strong cashflow. Strong balance sheet. Pays good dividends.
A good company but is it a good time to own its stock now?
Hi AK, I also don't think it's good time to buy. But just to prepare. Still need to find out more such companies and wait for good price.
Hi Ah John,
Ah, you are preparing your shopping list. Good idea! :D
We believe CPO prices will remain muted in 2H13 on
(i) steady production growth from Malaysia, (
ii) anticipated higher supply of global vegetable oil such as soybean and rapeseed oil, which are substitutes of palm oil,
and
(iii) weaker Indian Rupee against the US$, affecting demand from India, which is the largest importer of palm oil.
All these, coupled with the seasonally peak production period would cap any upside recovery on CPO prices in the 2nd half of the year.
We continue to like Wilmar for its positive long-term fundamentals as it remains a good proxy for the growing food demand in China and SEA.
In addition, being a supply chain manager, it will be less affected by low commodity prices as compared to pure upstream players. Golden Agri, having more than 90% of earnings coming from its upstream plantations, would continue to be affected by the weak CPO pricing.
Phillip Securities Research
Heading into Wednesday, investors had been primed for the Fed to scale back its $85 billion per month bond-buying programme. Many experts predicted the programme would be reduced by $10-$15 billion per month.
But the Fed lowered its economic growth forecast for 2013 and 2014, expressing concerns that reducing the stimulus would harm the economy.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the Fed could still taper the program later this year if economic conditions warrant.
Source:
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/international/dollar-falls-as-fed/818496.html
Good News for Companies that borrow money :P
Hi Cory,
Indeed. Good news for REITs too. :D
Belated congratulations on your generous passive income. You did it again ^-^
Missed the boat for another few more lots....
Was "expecting" to buy some stocks at good price. Looks like need to wait patiently for a while more.
Any advice for new investor like me during this waiting period? :)
Hi SnOOpy168,
Thanks. :)
Well, the stock market will always be there. We will always have opportunities to buy again. ;)
Hi boonchin,
I know people who are still or almost 100% in cash and waiting to buy in the next bear market.
I question the wisdom in that kind of strategy. I mean there are people who have been waiting for a long time.
Who can tell with any accuracy how Mr. Market is going to behave and for how long?
Reminder to myself: We should stay pragmatic and not be too optimistic or pessimistic. Stay invested in some good stocks but have a war chest ready.
Hi AK,
Care to comment a bit on why Saizen rose today? I cannot find any material news regarding this? Am I missing something?
Hi AK,
To add on to the idea of scuttlebutt, i like to chat with people who are working in the industry where i have stocks interest.
For example, i have friends who are working as civil engineer in the construction sector. They have high opinions of YongNam's Steel structures and moving forward, steel structures does have advantages over cement and bricks.
They foresee increase in the usage of steel structure and have confidence in yongnam products quality.
Just my opinion, do note that i have vested interest in Yongnam.
Hi sgdigital,
I believe it is just Mr. Market feeling optimistic. Stock market in Japan rose a fair bit after Mr. Bernanke's announcement not to do any tapering. ;)
Hi Solace,
Thanks for sharing results from your scuttlebutting. Much appreciated. ;)
I have full confidence in Yongnam's competitive advantage. This is why I believe buying more at a discount to its NAV is a steal (pardon the pun) and Mr. Market was pessimistic enough to let us do that a few weeks ago.
If there should be a pull back to support, I might buy more again. :)
Hi AK,
What's your view on the Saizen 5 to 1 share consolidation?
Hi boonchin,
I don't have any opinion on it actually. It doesn't change the fundamentals of the REIT. Everything x5, that's all. ;)
Sugar is going to help Wilmar into a sweet spot. :)
Singapore-listed Wilmar International reported a 2.5-per cent increase in its third quarter net profit, as strong growth from its sugar business offset weak contributions from plantations and palm oil.
The commodities firm registered a net profit of US$416 million for the three months ended September.
But its revenue dropped 4.2 per cent to US$11.84 billion.
Wimar said its sugar business saw a 49-per cent jump in pre-tax profit to US$151.2 million in the quarter due to higher crushing volumes in Australia.
Its palm and laurics division also reported a 17 per cent rise in profit before tax to US$211.9 million as a result of improving margins.
But its plantations and palm oil mills segment remain affected by lower production yield and crude palm oil prices. The division saw a 50-per cent drop in pretax profit to US$57.9 million in the third quarter.
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/singapore/wilmar-international/878436.html
Hi AK,
Best wishes in the year of 2014 to you and your family! Good health, joy, laughter, prosperity! Huat ah!
Hi FoodieFC,
The very best to you and your family in 2014 too. Thank you. :)
Singapore's industrial property market saw overall occupancy rates fall by 0.8 percentage points in the fourth quarter last year, compared to the third quarter.
In a statement, JTC Corporation said a 1.5 per cent increase in supply outstripped a 0.6 per cent increase in demand for the quarter.
This decline in occupancy rates came after the government increased the supply of industrial land and space in recent years in response to escalating prices and rentals.
From 2010 to 2013, the government sold an average of 26 hectares (ha) of land per annum via the Industrial Government Land Sales (IGLS) programme.
This is significantly higher than the average of around 11 ha sold per year between 2005 and 2009.
Source:
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/singapore/industrial-property/966506.html
Reader:
"Thanks for sharing your results. You said 'a few years ago, I drastically reduced my exposure to LMIR'. Are u referring to Lippo Malls? Which year was this? I just bought some..."
AK:
"It was in early 2013. That was a year when I locked in relatively high capital gains. You might want to read this blog."
Reader was referring to:
2016 full year income from S-REITs.
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