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AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Stable.

Friday, June 25, 2010

Although the momentum oscillators have been forming lower highs and lower lows of late which is similar to LMIR's case, the OBV here shows a clear trend of accumulation. This has been the case since early March this year.  This is probably the reason for this REIT's relative price stability.  Everytime its price falls close to the long term support of its range, smart money would move in to accumulate.




I mentioned before that if the MFI continues to decline while the price remains at or above the 21.5c resistance turned support, it would be good news for the bulls.  Why? In the absence of positive buying momentum, if the price is able to stay up, it shows a lack of sellers as well.  When positive buying momentum returns once more, chances are higher, therefore, that price would be pushed up in such an instance.

Both the MACD and the signal line are rising above zero.  However, as price is technically still rangebound, this does not say anything more than the fact that momentum has returned to positive territory.

The 20dMA has completed a golden cross with the 50dMA today while the Bollinger bands continue to tighten. I liken this to the coiling up of a spring as price gets ready to move in either one direction. It might or might not be positive. We will have to wait and see.

LMIR: Distribution.


LMIR's volume expanded today as price fell to close at 47c.  Momentum oscillators, MFI and RSI, have formed lower highs and lower lows as the price continued to be resisted by the merged 100d and 200d MAs. I have mentioned a few times before that, of late, LMIR has been rising on weak technicals and, therefore, I would not add to my long position yet.




47c is a many times tested support level, a support level that gave way on 19 May.  At the moment, this support level is underpinned by the rising 20dMA and might be a tad stronger than it was back in May. If 47c gives, the next major support is at 45c.

The MACD has completed its turn down and seems set to form a bearish crossover with the signal line.  If it does this and goes below zero once more, the recent upmove in LMIR's price would be nothing more than a rebound in a downtrend which started in January this year.

I would keep an eye on the momentum oscillators at the same time as they could be predictive if we spot divergences. I still like this REIT's fundamentals and will wait for a more opportune time to load up.


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