AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Accumulation price?

Today, after market closed, there was a big sell down of more than 3 million units at 22c.  A reader asked if I managed to get more at 22c today. No, I didn't. I am waiting at 21.5c.

On 12 Oct, I mentioned that "It is quite obvious that the range is still 20c to 23c with the midpoint of 21.5c being an important, many times tested support. 21.5c is also where the rising 50dMA would be approximating soon.  This should lend strength to the support. So? I would buy more at 21.5c if I feel inclined to add to my position in this REIT."

22c has been a strong support thus far but with the MACD declining below the signal line and the MFI yet to retest its uptrending support, there could be further weakness.  The lower high on the MFI suggests weaker demand and the lower high on the RSI suggests weaker buying momentum.

21.5c is also where the rising 50dMA is approximating and it is also where we find the lower Bollinger band. A reason why I am not in a hurry to accumulate is because I already have a sizeable investment in this REIT. I don't need to accumulate at 22c. I can wait. The technicals suggest that waiting might not be a bad idea too.

Related post:
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Buying more?

ASTI: Low volume pullback.

On 19 September, I mentioned that "NRA has a target price of 21c for ASTI.  That is a 100% upside from my entry price of 10.5c.  Nice but I see resistance at 12c which was tested several times in recent months.  It is, however, also interesting to note that we might be seeing the formation of an ascending triangle here with 12c being the top of the formation."

Immediately the next day, "12c resistance was weakened as price briefly touched 12.5c before ending the day at 12c.  This means that 12c is still resistance and we need to see if it could be taken out in the coming sessions." and I asked "should my friend buy some shares of ASTI at 12c? Buying at 12c would be buying at resistance. Not a very good idea."

In the last session, ASTI's share price closed at 10.5c on very low volume. To me, it seems as if the counter is doing a classic low volume pullback. If we draw trendlines connecting the highs of 11 May and 20 Sep as well as the lows of 25 May and 2 Sep, ASTI's share price is clearly in an up channel.  In the last session, the closing price of 10.5c was right smack on the channel support.

We have a sell signal on the MACD histogram and the MACD has been forming lower highs, calling for caution. The OBV is, however, showing no signs of active distribution and, in fact, the picture of continual accumulation is very much intact.

ASTI would be announcing 3Q results soon in the first two weeks of November, next month.  With improving fundamentals, 3Q should turn out to be quite satisfactory. To recapt, EPS for the half year ended 30 June 2010 was at 1.31c and NAV/share was at 17.75c. I like how ASTI has been repaying bank loans which resulted in the lowering of financing costs year on year by 81.8% from $1.2 million (2Q2009) to $0.2 million (2Q2010). Its gearing now stands at only 8%.

ASTI paid out a dividend per share of 0.5c to 1.1c between 2005 to 2007. This translates to a yield of 4.76% to 10.48% based on the last done price of 10.5c per share.

Buying more at 10.5c seems like a good idea, given the improving fundamentals and the benign technicals.

See 2Q10 results here.

Related post:
ASTI: A doubling of share price in time?