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On 22 Oct, when I blogged about FCOT turning around, I suggested that 17c is a formidable resistance and we know that buying at resistance is not a good idea. We want to buy at supports and, strictly speaking, these supports should be confirmed.
"From the looks of it, volume seems to be reducing since hitting a high on 24 Sep. In subsequent up days, volume had been lower. So, it could turn out to be a case of "sell on news". Immediate support is at 16c but I see a stronger support to be provided by the 50dMA which coincides with an uptrend line. That might be a better entry price. I do not like to chase."
Closing today above the 20dMA at 16c shows that the shorter term uptrend is still intact although price did touch an intra day low of 15.5c.
What are the chances of price declining further? No one can say for sure but it is obvious that upside momentum is somewhat limited with the RSI forming a lower high and the MACD poised to form a bearish crossover with the signal line.
Although the MFI has formed higher lows, which suggest sustained demand, we could see it retreating to retest its uptrend line or 50%. So, I won't be surprised to see price declining a tad more and/or volume declining further.
With the fundamentals having improved, buying in at 15.5c or 15c seems like a good idea for a possible annualised DPU of 1.24c, assuming that the last quarterly DPU of 0.31c is sustainable. This would translate to a yield of 8% at the entry price of 15.5c. Pretty decent.
Related post:
FCOT: Turning around.
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