Golden Agriculture: Downtrend once more.

Golden Agriculture started the day at 69c, touched a low of 67.5c before closing at 68.5c, forming a black candle with a long lower wick. That this formed within a preceding white candle has a semblance of a bearish harami. The bearish tone is reinforced by the fact that the downtrend resistance is at 69c which means that the counter's share price is once again in the embrace of the downtrend which started on 4 Jan.

Although price might go higher to retest previous session's high of 71c, the probability of further weakening is rather high. Why a retest of previous high at 71c and not 72c as provided by the 100dMA mentioned in earlier blog posts? Well, traders are going to remember 71c as the price they could have sold at but didn't. So, 71c is now a psychologically important resistance level.

A weakening in price could see the 200dMA, now at 64c, tested once more as support. If it holds up, I could possibly go long on the counter once more. Otherwise, the next support is the low of 23 Feb at 61c. Making sure that support holds up before going long is the way to go.

Related post:
Golden Agriculture: A one day gain of 7 to 9.4%.

Cache Logistics Trust: A retest of 91.5c low?

This is one counter I have been patiently waiting for price to reach a level I consider relatively attractive. Technically, it is looking quite possible that my wish could come true.

Today's trading volume is the highest since 1 Nov 2010. A long black candle was formed. Coupled with increased volume, this is very bearish. We could see the recent low of 92.5c tested next. Could we even see the low of 26 May 2010 at 91.5c tested? There is a chance.

I have put in my buy queue at 91.5c. With an annualised DPU of 7.76c, it would mean a distribution yield of 8.48%. This is lower than AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT's 9.76% (with a DPU of 2c at the current price of 20.5c).

A lower distribution yield is acceptable to me due to the REIT's much lower gearing of 23.7% and much higher interest cover ratio of 9.3x. Cache Logistics Trust's numbers look stronger than AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT's (gearing of 33.6% and interest cover ratio of 5x). Buying at 91.5c is still a premium of 2.8% over its NAV/share of 89c but this is marginal and acceptable for a lower risk investment.

Related post:
Cache Logistics Trust: Weakness after XD.