I bought more units of AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT today at 93.5c.
Price touched a low of 93c on relatively high volume today. In the following days, if selling pressure does not let up, we could see the next support at 92c tested. That would bring us back to price levels not seen since December 2009.
Although the MFI and Stochastics both suggest that the REIT is terribly oversold, in very bearish circumstances, price could continue to drift lower with momentum oscillators remaining in their oversold territories.
If price should go lower to test 92c, I would like to see the MACD forming a higher low. This would hint that downside momentum has weakened. It would also give us a positive divergence.
The redevelopment of 20 Gul Way is NPI yield accretive and because it is funded fully by debt, it is also DPU accretive. It is estimated that contributions from the redevelopment will start from 1Q 2013.
By early 2014 when both phases of the redevelopment are generating revenue, the management expects a positive DPU impact of +1.465c, everything remaining equal. This would mean a pro forma DPU of 11.465c or a distribution yield of 12.26% based on today's closing price of 93.5c per unit.
We could see continuing weakness in the REIT's unit price if sentiments remain bearish. I would capitalise on further weakness to accumulate as I could find nothing wrong with the REIT's fundamentals.
See slides presentation regarding progress in the redevelopment of 20 Gul Way: click here.