AK71 gets recognition from the government!

Some time back, I wrote about how I was asked to take part in Eldershield. That blog post generated many good comments, putting forth arguments for and against me taking up Eldershield.

In the end, I decided to take up Eldershield because of an appeal by LP, the blog master of "Bully the Bear". He said "...  I wish to appeal to your sense of public charity - help contribute to the pool of money so that those poor elders can insure against this risk at lower premiums." That more or less made up my mind for me.

Today, as I was going through my mail, I came across one that had the words "ON GOVERNMENT SERVICE" together with our national crest on the envelope. I experienced palpitations.

A traffic offence? I flipped the envelope and saw the return address: "NSSC, 1, Depot Road, Singapore 109681." Wah! Being called up for reservist? Or did I forget to inform MINDEF that I would be going overseas before my last trip?

I opened the envelope and this was what I saw:

Paragraph 2 is of the greatest interest to me:

"In recognition of your contribution to National Service... you are entitled to an annual deduction of $1,500 from your taxable income... "

Of course, the letter also reminded me that I am ageing.

Related post:
Tea with AK71: Eldershield.

LMIR: 4Q 2011 results.

In recent weeks, I noticed that in some publications including The Business Times which compare high yielding stocks in Singapore, LMIR's distribution yield was overstated probably based on historical quarterly DPU. Historically, LMIR's quarterly DPU hovers at around 1c.

Recently acquired Pluit Village.

Personally, I estimated the DPU after acquisitions and rights issue to be closer to 3.26c per annum which works out to be 0.815c per quarter.

As a reader correctly pointed out not too long ago, the first DPU after the recent acquisitions and rights issue is likely to be lower because the acquisitions would have only been completed in December 2011. Indeed, DPU for 4Q 2011 (Oct to Dec 2011) is 0.53c, including contributions from recent acquisitions for the period of 6 December to 31 December 2011.

Income distribution is payable on 16 March.

Plaza Medan Fair.

This lower DPU likely disappointed Mr. Market as LMIR's unit price dipped from the start of the trading day, closing 1.5c lower at 39c but not before touching a low of 38.5c. If we were to annualise the quarterly DPU of 0.53c, it would mean an annual DPU of 2.12c or a distribution yield of only 5.3% based on a unit price of 40c. This would be a mistake, however.

Any investor with a longer term perspective should not worry as this much lower quarterly DPU is probably temporary. Over time, even my estimate of 3.26c in annual DPU should be surpassed, all else remaining equal.

Some numbers:

NAV/unit: 60c.
Gearing: 8.7%
Ave. cost of debt: 6.7% p.a.

See slides presentation: here.

So, should we rush to buy units of LMIR now? Not me. Why?

Although its unit price has declined from the ascribed fair value of 41c which sees a distribution yield of 7.95% with an estimated annual DPU of 3.26c, there could be more room to fall. This could happen once the REIT goes XD.

A doji was formed today as price closed lower. A doji suggests indecision and this could be due to the fact that the REIT is still trading CD. However, a gapping down is bearish. The very high volume on a down day reinforced the bearish picture.

The MACD has made a bearish crossover with the signal line which suggests that positive momentum has weakened. MFI and Stochastics are nowhere near oversold and we don't have a buy signal. If anything, the bearish divergence we spotted some time back is being played out now. The uptrend is broken.

It remains to be seen if immediate support at 38.5c as provided by the declining 100d MA would hold. If it should give, next support is at 37c which is where we find the upturning 50d MA.

Related post:
LMIR: A slow and steady climb.