China Minzhong: Opportunity in slowing momentum.

A big part of my portfolio is invested for income while the remainder is invested for capital gains. In both instances, once I stop adding to my long positions, the main thing to do is to wait. Wait to collect regular income in the first instance and wait to lock in gains in the second.

I will have more income distributions from S-REITs in November and December. Possibly, there will be dividends to be collected from some stocks as well. I am not too sure as I have not noted the precise dates for some time now.

I also invested in a few stocks, believing that they could deliver some nice capital gains. One such stock is China Minzhong and the last time I blogged about it was about a month ago, declaring that its stock price was emerging from a downtrend. Since then, its stock price has moved to touch a high of 85c.

OBV shows continuing accumulation while the RSI shows the formation of higher lows. There is some support. However, the lower high on the MACD which formed as a higher high formed in stock price, together with the reducing volume as price pushed higher, suggest a weaker positive momentum.

A rising wedge also seems to have formed and this suggests that the stock price could see a retreat in the near term. However, wedges are not terribly reliable patterns and the bearish signal we see here could be negated if volume should simply expand with an upward movement in stock price.

In the event that the rising wedge should deliver, we could expect a correction to see the share price retreat to 68.5c thereabouts. Before that, we could see some support at 75c. The immediate support is at 80c.

The weekly chart is somewhat more encouraging as the MACD has just moved into positive territory. Unlike the daily chart, there is no negative divergence observed here. The longer term picture suggests that any pull back in price is an opportunity to accumulate. The 100w MA, approximately at $1.10 now, could put an eventual cap to any upward movement in stock price in case it should happen.

Related post:
China Minzhong: Emerging from a down trend.

Wilmar: A rebound or something more?

Wilmar is up 3.9% at $3.18 as players await further details from the Malaysian government on a CPO export-tax cut. "It's one of the better companies in terms of having feet in both Indonesia and Malaysia and (being) able to trade around any opportunities from that" on the potential tax change, an analyst says.

He adds, the slightly improved soybean supply-side numbers from the U.S. were also positive for the stock as soybean availability is key for Wilmar. He notes the stock is starting from an overly depressed position and a number of players are "relooking" it after its selloff.

Dow Jones & Co, Inc, Friday, 12 October 2012.

I don't like to sell as share prices form new lows. It just doesn't make sense to me. If I want to reduce exposure in downtrends, I would wait for rebounds as prices test resistance. After all, prices go down a river of hope.

I do not know if Wilmar's share price would continue to strengthen or how much it would rise if it should happen, of course. I just have to do what I plan to do if it happens.

I like to potter around a bit with charts and using the Fibo fan, the chart shows that price broke resistance in the last session but mostly retreated to close just slightly above resistance. A continuing rise in share price next week looks rather iffy. If it should happen, next target is $3.28

Of course, we can also say the the confluence of the 20d and 50d MAs at $3.20 is a formidable barrier. This could be the case but in a situation where price is no longer trending, MAs are weaker tools. I would turn to momentum oscillators in such instances for clues.

For anyone who thinks that Wilmar's share price is experiencing a blip in positive movement and that it is on its way lower, I won't be too sure. Look at the MACD which is a price momentum oscillator. It just formed another higher low. It shows that negative momentum is continuing to weaken.

The ADX shows that there is no trend per se and if there is any, it is a weak one.

What I can say for sure is that Wilmar's share price is going through a long drawn basing process. When is it ending? It will end when it ends.

Related post:
Wilmar: Is the tide turning as buying pressure returns?