Vard Holdings: Initiating coverage.

I have always liked the sound of the phrase "initiating coverage". It reminds me of some movies I watched before where a person in a war room would be standing ready to press a red color button while announcing "initiating launch sequence now". Quite exciting.

Well, talking about Vard Holdings might not create the same kind of excitement for some readers especially for those who have bought the stock at much higher prices. For sure, there is no paucity of BUY calls from analysts on Vard Holdings.

I remember replying to a reader a couple of months ago that we could see a rebound because of a positive divergence but with the downtrend intact, share price could go lower.

In yesterday's session, Vard Holdings' share price hit a new 12 months low of 83c. So, is share price at the start of a recovery today? This is a question I do not have the answer to. However, technically, there is no reversal signal. So, if share price should trend lower, it would not surprise me.

If it should trend lower, a critical support would be at 79c, the low formed in October 2011. Remember, this is what I see in the chart and it does not mean that it will happen.

Of course, there is always a possibility of a sharp rebound in which case, we could see a gap covering at 96c or a test of gap resistance at 99.5c.

Fundamentally, it is quite easy to see why there are so many BUY calls.

Doing a quick valuation exercise, at 83c a share, Vard Holdings does not seem expensive. In fact, it seems quite cheap now. I went through the numbers and its 1Q FY13 EPS works out to be 3.37c. Annualising this and using a PER of 7x will give us a value of 94.5c while a PER of 8x will give us a value of $1.08.  Why 7x or 8x? Well, that is the kind of PERs we are looking at with smaller yards like ASL Marine and Marco Polo Marine. 

So, at 83c, Vard Holdings is actually trading at an even lower valuation compared to smaller yards? Yes, that would seem to be the case from a price earnings perspective.

If we believe that the demand for OSVs is on the rise, then, Vard Holdings should be a logical beneficiary. However, we should bear in mind that although the stock might seem like a compelling buy, share price could weaken further. So, unless we are mentally prepared for such a possibility, it might be better to wait for clearer signs of a reversal.

After all, Vard Holdings did issue a profit warning due to higher than expected cost overruns at its Niteroi yard as well as higher than expected start-up costs at its new yard, Promar, which was what sent its share price diving.

Related post:
Marco Polo Marine: 1H FY2013.

Note:

Vard Holdings Limited ("VARD") will release its financial results for the second quarter and half year ended 30 June 2013 after market closes on Thursday 11 July 2013.

Interview with Matthew Seah (Part 1): Financial Freedom.

I learned from Robert Kiyosaki that in order to gain financial freedom, we have to be free of debt, able to provide for ourselves and to prepare for a future without having to work for money. 

Many people always find themselves short of cash at the end of each month and it is difficult for them to save any money.

To avoid this problem, I pay myself first by saving a portion of my income before spending any money. At the end of the month, if there is any spending money left, it will add to my savings.

Being prudent with money is something I strongly believe in since young as my mother always advocates the virtues of saving money. My Edusave bursaries and scholarships during my school days all went into my savings account.

Now, I have several accounts and not just one. They are:

Account 1: Emergency fund.

This is money which can support my current lifestyle for at least a year in case something untoward should happen.

Account 2: Opportunity fund.

This is money to take advantage of any investment opportunities in a market crisis.

Account 3: Investment fund.

This is money available to invest on a regular basis. To reduce commission and fees as a percentage of a transaction, I tend to invest only after accumulating more than $9,000 in the investment fund.

Account 4: Gifting fund.

This is money set aside for buying gifts, donating to charities and making offerings.

Account 5: Excitement fund.

This is money put aside for holidays.

As passive income from my investments increases, I will be able to set aside more of my total income for investments. One day, when my investments are able to generate the desired level of passive income, I will set aside 90% for charitable causes, keeping only 10% for my own expenses. This is my goal.

So, how should young people go about increasing our wealth to reach the goal of financial freedom?

We need to seek the right financial education or get a mentor who has walked the path with good results since financial education is not available in school.

If young people have a low level of financial literacy, there is a good chance that their families do too. Therefore, they should not seek financial advice from their family members. Actually, it is not uncommon to meet people who think that investing in stocks is synonymous with gambling. This is due to a low level of financial literacy.

Investing in stocks is like being in partnerships with businessmen. Instead of starting our own businesses and hoping to succeed, we can shorten the time to success by being partners with successful entrepreneurs at the helm and stand to share the profits from their success.

Time is the most valuable resource that any person has in investing because wealth from investing grows by compounding. So, young people have a distinct advantage. Start young.

Related posts:
1. Robert Kiyosaki: 2 are better than 1.
2. Teaching young children financial literacy.
3. Interview with Matthew Seah (Part 2): Value Investing.