Yongnam: A chance to accumulate cheaper.

If anyone is still wondering why Yongnam's share price plunged today, it is due to a 28.6% drop in quarterly net profit, year on year. The weakness in share price now has a reason.

The question to ask is whether this drop in net profit is because of an enduring change in Yongnam's businesses or is it a one off event?

Yongnam posted a quarterly net profit of S$ 8.6 million attributable to shareholders which is lower than the S$ 12.1 million a year ago. This is after a S$ 5.1 million provision for doubtful debt because Alpine Bau GmbH, the main contractor for the Downtown Line 2 MRT project, went bust.

Now, if this had not happened, Yongnam would actually have seen a 13.2% growth in quarterly net profit, year on year, instead. This tells me that Yongnam's underlying businesses are probably still doing well and that this provision, as long as it does not become a regular occurrence, does not have any long term impact.

There are three other points which I want to highlight:

1. Gearing has gone up a notch to 0.45x. This is not a bad thing if the borrowings are able to generate greater returns but we should always keep an eye on gearing.

2. Gross margin in the last quarter went under 20% to 19.4%. Ignoring the provision for doubtful debt, net margin is 11.9% which is still pretty good for a construction company but it tells us of the existence of rather significant cost pressure.

3. First half EPS now stands at 1.59c. Unless the second half results are so abysmal as to be a loss of more than 0.59c, Yongnam is fully capable of paying a dividend this year and going by what happened in the last two years, it would probably happen.

I put in a buy order at 28c last night and the stock also hit a low of 28c a share today. A total of 17 lots changed hands at 28c but, fortunately or unfortunately, my order was not filled.

If Mr. Market should continue to feel rather depressed about Yongnam in the coming sessions, I will make use of the opportunity to accumulate.

See Yongnam's presentation: here.

Related post:
Yongnam: Buy since price is more reasonable now?

China Minzhong: Increased long position at $1.065.

The last time I sold shares of China Minzhong's was at $1.185 a share.  Since then, I added to my long position twice at $0.97 and $1.025. Today, I added to my long position again at $1.065.

Technically, even though there is some volatility in the share price, the MACD is supportive as a higher low was formed even as a lower low in price was seen. Another higher low in the MACD would mean that momentum is relatively strong.

$1.055 seems to be the immediate support which is being reinforced by the rising 50d MA. The 100d MA seems to be flattening at $1.065. Of course, there exists a chance that the 200d MA might once again be tested and it now approximates $0.995. I am willing to hazard a guess that it would bring out the buyers if it should happen.

Apart from the technical picture, why am I willing to buy at $1.065 today? Well, quite simply, I believe that China Minzhong's share price is relatively cheap. Its stock is undervalued even at $1.065. With a NAV/share of RMB7.00 or S$1.47, the stock is currently trading at a 27.5% discount to its book value. At $1.065 a share, if we could simply repeat the last quarter's EPS, we are looking at a PER of some 3.44x for 2013. This is hardly expensive even after taking into account that the PERs of companies in the business of farming seem to be rather low.

On 13 May 2013, I said that China Minzhong reported what I thought to be a good set of numbers. Both revenue and net profit were up. What was also really impressive was the 260.5% increase in cash flow from operation for the first 9 months, year on year. The company is now effectively in a net cash position.

What is the free cash flow? This is what many value investors would say is generally more important than earnings. It is harder to fake cash flow but easier to fake earnings.

For the first 9 months, China Minzhong generated a free cash flow of some RMB 299.9 million. This is about S$ 62.98 million. We will have to wait for its 4Q results to see if this goes up or reduces. As there are about 653 million shares in issue, it means that there is already a FCF of about S$ 0.096 per share.

There is intention to pay a dividend in 2013 and with FCF positive, there is a good chance of this happening. The practice of paying an annual dividend could also become a standard because of Indofood which has an almost 30% stake in China Minzhong. Indofood pays out 40% of its earnings as dividends consistently, according to sources.

With China Minzhong's full year earnings possibly at S$ 0.30 per share, a 40% pay out is equivalent to S$ 0.12. Even if FCF bumps up proportionally in the 4Q, this is unlikely to happen as China Minzhong still needs to fund growth initiatives.

I would be quite happy if China Minzhong is able to provide a 5% dividend yield which will move the investment from the growth category to the income and growth category in my portfolio. Based on today's price of $1.065, it would require a DPS of $0.053. Possible?

Well, this could be wishful thinking. I will just have to wait and see.

Related posts:
1. China Minzhong: Good results and long black candle.
2. Tea with Mark Mobius: Focus on long term goals.