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Mature and sophisticated consumers lease cars, not buy.

Wednesday, August 14, 2013

From time to time, I would blog about car ownership in Singapore. Without realising it, I have blogged about "cooling measures" for cars at least three times in the last few months.

Now, with the maximum 60% loan allowed for buying cars, some distributors are offering customers the option to lease instead if they find it hard to cough up the initial 40% in cash.

For a Kia Cerato Forte K3 1.6 litre, there is an option to lease for 3 years at about $1,800 a month or for 7 years at about $1,600 a month. Customers don't have to worry about road tax, insurance and maintenance at all. They only have to buy petrol, pay for parking, ERP and the infrequent car wash, I suppose. Sounds attractive, doesn't it?

As usual, the devil is in the details. So, let us look at some numbers:

A new Kia Cerato Forte K3 now sells for $115,990.

If we were to make a 40% down-payment and take a 5 year loan with a 1.88% interest rate for the balance, we would have to make a monthly repayment of $1,268. The car would also be an asset and no longer a liability after the first 5 years.


Click to enlarge.


Cost of car over a 10 year period: $122,479. This might be simplistic and inaccurate but let us assume that the cost of the car in the first 7 years is proportionally at $85,735.

The road tax for this 1.6 litre car is S$738.00 a year while insurance would vary but let us assume that it is $1,500 a year. Maintenance? Based on my car ownership experience, I would put it at $800.00 a year which is realistic if smoothed out over 7 years. So, everything in, we are looking at around $3,100 a year. Over 7 years, it is about $21,700.

Now, if we were to lease the car for 7 years, the bill would total $134,400.

If we were to buy the car instead, in the first 7 years, the "bill" would be: $85,735 + $21,700 = $107,435.

There is a big difference of $26,965 or a $3,852 a year or $321.00 a month!

Now, if we were to drive the car for another 3 years, at the end of the 10th year, we would get back a percentage of its OMV. In this case, we might get back around $9,000 from the LTA. Of course, we would have lost another $36,744 (i.e. $122,479 - $85,735) by then. We would also have incurred another $9,300 in costs (i.e. $3,100 x 3).

However, being able to get back about $9,000 at the end of the 10th year means that we would only lose in each of those 3 years $1,028 a month or some $279.00 lesser than the first 7 years of the car's life.

So, unless there is a good reason not to, it makes sense to buy and to drive the car for the full 10 years or would we rather lease the car for 7 years, give it back and lease another one for another 7 years, losing $1,600 a month all the time?

The "cooling measures" are to protect people who are in financially weaker positions and, in this case, for people who cannot afford the down-payment of $46,396. However, the option to lease offered by car distributors has effectively circumvented the new rules.

Are more curbs from the government needed?

If a job is worth doing, it is worth doing well. So, to further encourage financial prudence, there should be clearer guidelines as to who are poor candidates for such options to lease. Car dealers should then be penalised for flouting these guidelines.

Opel's Mr. David Pang said that, with their option to lease, they are targeting "mature and sophisticated buyers. Those who have travelled and lived overseas can identify with the merits of leasing as opposed to buying."

AK71 has not travelled and lived overseas. He is not a mature and sophisticated buyer. So, you might want to disregard this blog post. I am going back to my well.

UPDATE:
http://singaporeanstocksinvestor.blogspot.sg/2016/05/what-new-mas-rules-for-car-loans-mean.html


Related posts:
1. Cooling measures for cars.
2. Cooling measures for cars spurned.
3. Cooling measures for cars: Buying pre-owned.

Marco Polo Marine: Will FY2013 better FY2012?

Monday, August 12, 2013

Year on year, Marco Polo Marine's ship chartering business enjoyed growth in revenue of 147.2% to S$39.3 million for the first 9 months of FY2013. It grew 234.6% to S$17.4 million in Q3 of FY2013 alone.

Ship building and repairs, unfortunately, weakened 52.3% and this reflects the issue of serious over capacities dogging shipyards everywhere.


The question to ask is whether ship chartering is able to pick up the slack and I think it is reasonable to expect that it would. This could be a good thing too as Marco Polo Marine's ship chartering business is a higher margin business compared to ship building and repair.

For the same 9 months in FY2012, ship chartering accounted for 22.7% of total revenue. Now, it accounts for 60.4%. If the malaise in ship building and repair should continue and it seems like it would, ship chartering would probably account for an even bigger share of total revenue especially with the contribution from the AHTS, MP Prevail, which was acquired in June 2013, kicking in.

This growth in revenue from ship chartering will gain momentum as Marco Polo Marine plans to buy another AHTS before end of the year if the opportunity should present itself. They are also building more AHTS in their own shipyard for delivery to BBR in 2014.



For the full FY2012, revenue was about S$ 90 million. For the first 9 months of FY2013, S$ 65 million in revenue has been recorded. So, the group needs to generate another S$25 million in revenue just to equal last year's performance.

It is likely that we will see ship chartering's revenue in Q4 exceeding Q3's S$17.4 million due to contribution from MP Prevail. Another S$0.5 million, perhaps? So, estimated revenue from ship chartering in Q4 could be in the area of S$17.9 million.

Unless ship repair generates lower revenue in Q4 compared to Q3, it is more likely than not that FY2013's overall revenue will equal FY2012's or maybe even exceed it by a bit.

Furthermore, due to the higher margins in the ship chartering business, I would not be surprised if net profit turns out to be higher in FY2013 compared to FY2012 despite a lack of overall revenue growth, exceptional gain of $5.7 million not withstanding.

Anyone who is investing in Marco Polo Marine must be willing to wait as the numbers are expected to improve significantly in FY2014. This means a waiting time of another 12 to 15 months.

Some numbers now for 9M FY2013:
EPS: 5.32c
NAV: 46.8c per share.
Gearing: 59.2%

Stripping out the exceptional gain of $5.7 million, what I believe to be a fair estimate of the EPS for the full FY2013 is around 5.4c. So, at 38c a share, we are looking at a PER of 7x. I don't think the stock is expensive. Given the probability of higher earnings in FY2014, definitely, it is not expensive.

Although I expect that the company is able to repeat a DPS of 0.8c in the next quarter given its cash position, it is perhaps more prudent to refrain from doing so given its current strategy to grow its fleet of OSVs more aggressively.

If there should be a decline in share price, I see support provided by the 100w MA at 37c. I would probably buy more if that should happen.

See media release: here.

Related post:
Marco Polo Marine: Bracing news from Indonesia.


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