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I entered several BUY orders last night and one of these was a BUY order for Croesus Retail Trust at 87c which was the price at which I initiated a long position last year.
I decided that the expected market weakness today would be a good opportunity to increase exposure to the Trust because of an encouraging set of numbers. Using the information provided at its IPO, I estimated the distribution yield to be 8.5% when I got in at 87c a unit last year.
However, with a higher than forecast DPU now expected, distribution yield at 87c a unit has bumped up. According to the management's annualised figure, distribution yield should approximate 9.46% at 87c a unit. This is very attractive for the kind of assets the Trust holds.
Even if we are a bit conservative which was my attitude towards estimating the DPU back in November, for anyone buying in at 87c a unit, a 9% distribution yield is quite realistic.
Given the fact that most of its income is hedged against foreign exchange fluctuations for two years and that the bulk of its loans are locked in for 5 years at a very low interest rate, DPU level in S$ terms is more or less protected. This is probably an important consideration for anyone investing for income.
What might change the DPU level is the S$100 million 4.6% MTN issued just a few days ago. These notes are due in 2017.
4.6% is pretty high compared to the interest rates of the Trust's JPY loans. However, just like in the case of AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT which also issued notes last year attracting higher costs compared to conventional bank loans, the access to a different funding source increases the level of funding flexibility and, some might say, security. The higher cost of funds is justifiable.
If I were to hazard a guess, I would say that the management has identified potential acquisitions and with NPI yield for malls in Japan hovering at about 6% in general, any acquisition is likely to be DPU accretive. If this were the case, then, there is no fear of distribution income being negatively impacted.
We must, however, still keep an eye on the numbers.
The hard numbers tell us that finance costs will jump by some 30% because of this S$100 million MTN and unless put to good use it will also reduce DPU by about 5%. So, the funds raised should not be left idle for too long.
This is how I would look at the issue of the S$100 million MTN. Simply saying it is not cheap or it is expensive is not very helpful in our decision making process or is it?
If Mr. Market should continue to feel depressed and decide to sell even more cheaply, I would probably be buying more. There would be an even greater margin of safety then.
See slides presentation of 13 Jan 14: here.
Read about the $100 million 4.6% MTN: here.
Related posts:
1. Croesus Retail Trust: Initiated long position at 87c.
2. Croesus Retail Trust: Motivations and risks.
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