There is no accounting for Mr. Market's behaviour and the recent strength in the unit price of AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT is, to me, inexplicable.
At a pre-rights unit price of $1.415, the REIT was trading at a discount to NAV which was at $1.52 per unit. Post rights, however, the NAV is closer to $1.29 a unit. So, the recent high of $1.43 is actually a 10.85% premium to NAV.
Of course, with the funds raised from the rights issue not being used for yield accretive purposes, I also expect a 15% dilution to DPU in the near term. Not very supportive of a higher unit price, wouldn't you say? Eventually, DPU should recover but probably not to the pre-rights level and not in a jiffy.
Having given due consideration to all the above reasons, I decided to reduce the size of my long position in the REIT which is now larger after the recent rights issue. How big was the divestment? Not a big one but a rather small 14% or so. Who knows? Unit price could go higher.
The units divested are those I bought in late 2009 and mid 2010. Time really flies.
I estimate the return on investment, including income distributions over the years, to be about 17% to 18% per annum.
With this divestment, I have taken back the money I used to participate in the recent rights issue (at $1.08 per rights unit) and a bit more. A bit more? With a theoretical ex-rights price (TERP) of $1.365 then, it means that my partial divestment has a nice little capital gain to boot.
After this, my war chest will be beefed up but, everything else remaining equal, my passive income from S-REITs this year will be lower. I will have to wait patiently for opportunities.
ERRATA:
Post recent rights issue, NAV/unit should be about $1.45. A thousand apologies. My brain no good. Thanks to Louis and Capricon for the nudge. So, it means that at $1.43, there is still a 1.5% discount to NAV.
Related posts:
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Rights.
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Good price?