When can gambling make more than investing? (Ten Experts On When The Next Recession May Hit. Added on 20 August 2018.)

Reader:
hello AK, just curious and wanting to understand further your thought process on HLS. 

Would knowing about the bumper dividend have changed your decision? 

I assume the announcement wasn't made yet when you sold.



AK:
Alamak. This is like asking me if I can see the future...

Not a meaningful question 😉





Reader:
hahahaha clearly I didn't give a good illustration
put it another way, how would a bumper dividend + increase in price of a stock influence your decision whether to hold/sell/whatever? 

Do you consider how long it takes under normal circumstances for yearly dividends to cover the bumper dividend? 

(eg 4 years of dividends for HLS assuming $0.025 per share, to account for $0.100 bumper dividend)






AK:
it is about what we feel is a fair price to pay... 

some feel that they want to get into HLS even at 60+c and to get the special dividend... I don't think it is a good idea... 

I think 52c was a fairly good exit price... there is no accounting for prices.

If people who buy from me make some money, good for them. I try not to overthink.





I am still holding on to 50% of my original investment in HLS. 

It has become free of cost and I see myself holding on to this investment for many more years to come. 

This is just like my investment in OCK which also became free of cost when I sold half of my investment after its share price doubled a few years ago.

I won't lose sleep over the fact that their share prices went higher after I sold half of my investment. 

I made good money and will probably continue to make money from these investments. 

To me, that is good enough.





If I had a working crystal ball and could see the future accurately, I would not be an investor. 

I would be a full time TOTO gambler. ;)

Anyway, to sleep better at night, we won't be wrong to avoid the phrase:

"If only I had known."

It has no practical purpose.
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Ten Experts On When The Next Recession May Hit, 20 August 2018.






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Take that dream job and take on more risk?

This was my reply to a reader's email:

Hi L,

If you remember, I have a blog that says unless we are rich, be pragmatic, not romantic. Most of us have to work, exchanging our time and energy for pay.

If we are not financially secure, then, we might have to forgo that dream job which does not have a predictable income. Having a predictable income stream provides peace of mind which is priceless.

Your passive income stream just about meets your expenses. I don't see much of a buffer but I am usually conservative. Dream job or not, you decide.

As for taking risks (in the stock market), there is nothing wrong with taking a bit of risk as long as we size our positions properly.

Of course, if you are a speculator, then, sizing is out the window. If you are an investor, then, stay prudent. Which one are you? You decide.

The AK way? 

Be prudent. Be pragmatic. Be patient.

Best wishes,
AK

Always remember, my way might not be your way. What we do depends on what we want to achieve.

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