Cromwell European REIT IPO.

Cromwell European REIT is a mega IPO that will raise S$ 2 billion.

I looked at the distribution yield first. 

7.5% (@ 57 euro cent per unit) to 7.7% (@ 55 euro cents per unit).

Then, I looked at the gearing level. 

34.3% to 36.6%. 

It would have been better if it were below 30% but it is not excessive.

Then, I do what I do pretty often which is to compare with other REITs in the same sector.

Alamak.

This is where the problem lies.







This REIT has a rojak portfolio of 81 retail, office and light industrial properties in 6 European countries (Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Poland and The Netherlands).

How to do comparative analysis like that?

OK, with IREIT Global taking a pan-European strategy, it could be a good candidate for comparison in future. As of now, IREIT Global still has properties in Germany only.

IREIT Global offers a similar distribution yield (7.6% at 76 cents per unit) but its gearing level is higher at 41.3%.

Of course, we should say that IREIT Global's portfolio consists only freehold properties while the proposed Cromwell European REIT's portfolio has less than 70% of assets on freehold land.

Yield should be higher for shorter leases to make investment sense.







In a rojak portfolio, it is very easy to hide bad assets and let the good assets pull the weight and we have seen this with some S-REITs before.

As this could well be the most rojak of portfolios when it comes to S-REITs, I find hard to analyse.

We might be able to get a clue as to what the sponsor thinks of the REIT by looking at the stake they will be retaining after the IPO.

8.7% (if popular) to 12.7% (if unpopular).

Pretty low numbers.

Cromwell European REIT's distribution yield might look decent and the gearing might look comfortable but I don't feel comfortable with the rojak nature of its portfolio.







It gives me the feeling that the sponsor wants to dump everything into a pot and be done with it.

For me, it would have been better if the IPO offered one asset class in one country or even a few asset classes in one country.

Then, if the REIT would like to expand its portfolio to include assets in other countries, justify why and take it from there.

Or it could offer a single asset class cutting across a few countries and then expand to include other asset classes later on.

It would be more orderly.







It could be the OCD in me but, now, it does not feel as if there is any clear strategy other than the REIT is holding European assets and, hence, the name of the REIT. It feels messy to me.

I have avoided IPOs for years and this will be no exception.

If Mr. Market should go into a depression and offer me a much lower price to compensate for the rojak nature of the portfolio, I could be tempted.

Read article: HERE.
IREIT Global: HERE.
Related post:
Would AK invest in IREIT today?

"Retrenched with almost zero compensation in my late 40s but..."

Serejouir said...
Hi AK,

I am a long time reader of your blog and felt compel to write in and share my own experience after reading about the reader who was jobless for almost a year.

I could not agree with you more on living prudently, avoiding unnecessary debt and investing in income generating tool. To add to that, we should also make an effort to to build up transferable skills.






I'm in my late 40s and single, earning $8-9k a month. I was retrenched in Nov last year, a week before my 25th year anniversary with the company, with almost zero compensation.

Thankfully, I have minimal debt - only a property loan that I co-share with my sis, which we managed to 1) re-mortgage a few months before my retrenchment; & 2) rented out albeit lower than our monthly loan payment at the moment.

Thankfully too, I am not into any of those designer stuff nor eating in those fancy restaurant. While I do enjoy an overseas holiday, 5-star hotel and shopping are not my cup of tea; it is also not a must have that I am willing to get into debt for, like many of my friends.

A quick calculation on the back of the envelop, gave me the assurance that my savings + investment returns can last me for 1-2 years, without having to liquidate any of my investment immediately. 

I would still be able to maintain the current lifestyle while still giving my parents their monthly living allowance.






Nevertheless, I also started to examine whether there are any other "frills"/"good to haves" that I can cut back on, so as to make my savings last even longer as well as in anticipation of a drastic pay cut in a new job.

This thought of financial security also gave me the safety net of having a bit of time on my side to evaluate what I want out of life and to get a job that I would enjoy doing, and not one that I have to work for a pay check.

While investing wisely for a secure financial future, I believe one must also look into investing in ourselves, so as to ensure that we have transferable skills that we can bring with us everywhere we turn to.






I also like what you said about keeping an open mind when it comes to job search.

I spent the last 20+ years in technology/manufacturing sector before I was retrenched.

In March this year, 3 months after I was retrenched, I got a new job in the healthcare sector, a totally new and alien industry to me. 

It was a very steep learning curve for me - job responsibilities were very different but I was able to tap on the analytical and management skills as well as various soft skills that I have picked up all these years. 

I find my current job very fulfilling and I really enjoyed what I am doing. To top it off, I not only did not suffer a pay cut but actually was offered a higher salary!






AK says:

Big "thank you" to Serejouir for sharing his experience and advice.

Being retrenched is tough, no matter how we slice it. However, if we are prepared, we will be less badly affected.

So, remember, if Serejouir can do it, so can you!

Gambatte!

Watch the video. He was retrenched after working as a manager for thirty years.







Related post:
Jobless for almost a year and losing my mind.