LMIR: A rebound might be next.

LMIR is one of my favourite REITs. It has high yield, low gearing and a big discount to NAV.  However, its price has been in an obvious downtrend. The downtrend recently worsened.

FA is about value and TA is about price. Price wise, this counter might see more downside. Being pragmatic, I would add to my position when the next base is formed or when price rebounds and forms a higher low.

Looking at the daily chart, we see that on Friday, a white hammer was formed.  This is a nice bullish reversal signal. Drawing downtrend lines, we see that the steeper downtrend line coincides more or less with the declining 20dMA which formed a dead cross with the 200dMA in the last session.  This would be at 48c in the next session.  A rebound would probably find initial resistance at 48c.

I would wait to see if a lower high is formed before deciding whether to add to my position.  The MACD is still pulling away downwards from the signal line and the OBV is in decline.  MFI is in the oversold region and this also supports the idea of a near term rebound but it has been forming lower highs.  So, if another lower high is formed during the rebound, the bearish picture is reinforced.

Related post:
LMIR: 1Q 2010 results.

Saizen REIT: Recent insider purchases.

17 May 2010:

Ms. Yvonne Ho Yuk Yee, spouse of Mr. Raymond Wong Kin Jeon, has purchased 186,000 Units on the open market. Mr. Wong is therefore also deemed to be interested in the 186,000 Units owned by Ms. Yvonne Ho Yuk Yee and held by HSBC as depository agent.  

Amount of consideration (excluding brokerage and stamp duties) per share paid or received: 16.5c.

19 May 2010:

Ms. Yvonne Ho Yuk Yee, spouse of Mr. Raymond Wong Kin Jeon, has purchased 300,000 Units on the open market. Mr. Wong is therefore also deemed to be interested in the 300,000 Units owned by Ms. Yvonne Ho Yuk Yee and held by HSBC as depository agent. 

Amount of consideration (excluding brokerage and stamp duties) per share paid or received: 16.5c.

Mr. Raymond Wong Kin Jeon's deemed interest now stands at 19,073,390  Units or 2.001% of current issued share capital. See announcements here.

This is one thing which helps to convince me that Saizen REIT's fundamentals are sound. Logically, if it is a basket case, insiders would not be buying.

Some people tell me that I should have sold my Saizen REIT units at 17.5c and buy again when it is lower to make more money.  Hindsight is beautiful, isn't it? Well, I could have but my investment in Saizen REIT is not for trading.  Even at 17.5c, I consider it a bargain.  Why would I sell?  Of course, this is informed by FA.

As always, how I treat each investment depends on my motivation for being invested in the first place as well as the prevailing circumstances.  The reasons for investing in Saizen REIT are still valid.  Circumstances have not soured in the present.  If anything, the REIT's fundamentals have improved and are likely to improve further. So, I am staying vested.

Related post:
Saizen REIT: 3Q FY2010 results.

Saizen REIT: Bought more at 16c.

Saizen REIT touched a low of 15.5c today.  As my investment in Saizen REIT is for the long term, I took a look at the weekly chart for clues.

The rising 50wMA is at 15.3c and should be at 15.5c next week. That there is buying interest in this REIT is seen in the higher high formed in the MFI and the upmove in the OBV.  The declining 100wMA should be at 16.5c next week.

Price could remain trapped between the support provided by the 50wMA and the resistance provided by the 100wMA in the near future without affecting the uptrend.

The Bollinger bands are narrowing. A couple of golden crosses seem to be in the works. An impending positive move in price is not an unreasonable expectation and is consistent with the REIT's improving fundamentals. Today, I bought more at 16c.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: 20.5c.

Bought more units of AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT today at 20.5c.  It has been rangebound between 20.5c to 23c for months now.  So, buying at 20.5c, the support of the trading range seems fairly safe. 

However, the technicals suggest further weakness.  The MACD has plunged further into negative territory as price formed a gravestone doji. MFI has dipped into the oversold region after forming lower highs. OBV is declining slightly. Further weakness could see 19.5c tested, the low in Dec 09.

A quick look at the weekly chart shows a range from 20c to 23c as suggested by the Bollinger bands. So, although further weakness cannot be discounted, the downside seems limited.