Tea with FunShine: Diary of an investor.

This is a well written guest blog by FunShine who is another good example of prudence in personal finance and discipline in investing for income:

Diary of an Investor

1. Ever since I have become more open with my portfolio, you get different friends asking or commenting on me for different things.

2. There are those that are surprised as some always thought that I am poor as I worked in social services for the past 11 years. I openly shared that my first job, the pay was only 1.6k after CPF. Plus I do not drive and live a frugal and prudent life other than my toy collecting hobby and my MTG hobby.

3. There is another group that asked how did you do it? I just say when my salary increase, I still live like how I will live based on my first job's pay. I invest and save the difference from my first job pay and last pay cheque.

4. My first job has taught me a lot on financial education and to always save for a rainy day. My first job is almost the same as those officers you see working in SSO that helps the poor and needy in SG.

5. There will be another group that will ask what to buy. To this group I say, go do your homework. And tell them I lost 30k by asking this kind of question.

6. Another group will come borrow money. To this group I say, I myself have good debt and I borrow money too at 2.5% to 4% interest backed by my asserts on loan to those that lend me money. What I do is take the money and invest it and generate a higher return. In the event if I fail, they can keep the assert I "pawn" to them which is more expensive then the money I borrow from them.

7. So if they ask again and still do not get it, I say can I charge you an interest of 5% if I lend you money? They understand and leave.

8. Of cos, there are my friends that is going through real hardship. I normally lend them up to $500 to help them tide through. There is a very firm and fixed pay date. No interest charge. If they go missing on me, I will just write off the $500 and be thankful that $500 can see the true colour of my friend that have questionable integrity. I am thankful as I will save lots of hours in my life with this friend since I will never see them again. So far I have lend more than 20 plus times and all the money has been returned.

9. Then you have another group. The friends that ask you to invest in them. My question is, is your "company" able to generate 5% to 20% ROI per year or on a long run? If no, it's better I place my money in the stock market or Oil/Gold/Silver ETF.

10. If they still pressed on, they will be bombarded by a tons of question from me:
A) Your current cash flow and Capex
B) Why are you raising funds
C) Future potential
D) SWOT
E) ROI in the next 5 years, 12 years
F) Succession planning

11. So far no one has passed this stage. I give to charities but I must know that is money well spend.

12. My this year's tax for my 10 months of work is only going to be $88. So you can probably work backward to think how much I give or put in SA or SRS if you bother to calculate.

13. Portfolio with the recent stocks bound up has been good. I am now just 40k short of being a priority banking customer, two months ago when the "sky was falling" and I got numerous messages on what to do, I was short of 50k. Normally I will just tell the "Sky is falling" group, why do you invest and why do you buy this company in the first place? If nothing change, just ignore the noise.

14. However, I will be selling 1/3 of my stocks in Mid April. As have a feeling that cash on hand will be good to take advantage of the upcoming opportunities.

15. My war chest consisting of OA-SA and SRS is still untouched. Market has not dropped to the point where I felt the need to open them. Will rather have good debt at 2.5% to 4% to buy them, then to tap on my war chest.

16. Preparing my heart now for quiet time. Just want to do a bit of sharing. Hope that what I share will help you in considering to live a prudent life and give more to others in need.

17. We need to be good stewards in all aspect of our lives. Thanks for reading.

Related post:
Tea with FunShine: Investment Philosophy.

Tea with FunShine: Investment Philosophy.

This is a guest blog by Funshine:

My Investment Philosophy

1. Bought OCBC 2 years ago before the rights issue. Traded it a little during that time 😊

2. Been buying all the way from $9+ till $7.69. Haven't booked my losses yet as I closed my books during June 2016.

3. Sitting on 15% lost on OCBC. To me there is no such thing as paper lost. Paper lost is only for people that wants to make themselves feel better so that they can wallow in self-pity.

4. Rather than indulge yourself in self-pity, might as well sell if you see no potential in the stock and transfer the funds to a better assert.

5. 23 April 2015 is the first day of operation for OCBC in Yangon. I hoped it will be a catalyst of growth in 5 years time.

6. Great Eastern results have not been too good from the last I read. OCBC is the parent company of Great Eastern.

7. Will increase till I have a 5% stake in SG banks based on my current portfolio.

8. Meanwhile been thinking for almost one quarter now to whether push one of my holding to 3.33% of my portfolio on a company that is investing in Ghana.

9. Pushing and confirmed going to increased my position to 6.67% of my portfolio on a country that is vested in Russia. That one, my time horizon will be 24 years if the company fundamentals does not change.

10. The Russia decision I at least ponder for 1.5 years, can't remember reading how many articles on it and I have been trying to speak to Russia people.

11. Investing is a lot of hard work. Although timing and luck plays a very big part. However, you can't be lucky and have perfect timing all the time if the duration is 20 years. I have friends that were so confident and one bad trade, they turn around and need to borrow money from me.

12. If you want quick money, go to a Casino or visit Singapore Pools. I spend $6 last week at Canada Lottery. The prize money is $60 million and one person won it.

13. If you can't afford to take the risk, please put in FD or buy Endowment. Even better just put in CPF.

14. When friends ask me what to buy, my opening statement is that this is not a good question. They will be stunned as suddenly I am rebuking them. I do that so that I can protect my friends.

15. My second response is I lost $30k from asking that question.

16. My next question to them is:
A) Why do you want to invest?
B) Why not just put in the bank?
C) Is this your spare cash?
D) What companies do you know?
E) Can you wait 20 years if we have a very weird and prolong bear market?

17. If I am pleased with the answer and the person have a bit of knowledge on Mr Market, my next question will be, are you an:
A) Dividend Income Investor
B) Growth Investor
C) Trader

18. As all three requires very different skill set.
A) Needs to plow through tons of reading and Fundamental Analysis
B) Macro Econs view, Govt Policy, Consumer taste and competitors need to be considered
C) Technical Analysis

19. However the most important skill to have which I am a firm believer of is IP. Investor psychology.

20. I have seen people with above normal IQ level but they lose big time in stocks market.

21. You are fighting with yourself as you embrace Mr Market. Mr Market may be your best friend at times. However, the next day, he can slapped you silly.

22. Do you have the temperaments for it?

23. I am very glad that my studies in Psychology and Management have given me a better footing.

24. Working for more than 10 years in social services has increased my mental resilient level and I got to know myself a lot more.

25. Lastly I believe in two things for investing or trading. Nothing is easy for the unwilling. What you do in your free time will determine how successful you will be.

26. If you have below average returns or worst then FD and you do not self reflect and ask why?

27. Please... Put your money is FD, CPF or Endowment. It will be better for you. You are responsible for your own money. Not someone else.

28. Thanks for reading. Going off to my Taiji class now to quieten my mind.

29. Keeping pace with Mr Market is not easy. On a 6 months break from work, living prudently and strangely I am traveling round the world. It's a oxymoron as traveling round the world and living prudently does not match. Oh well...

30. Best of luck or God bless as you continue your journey with Mr Market.

----------------------------

A bit about the writer - FunShine

The writer hopes that his personal account will be a good read for people hoping to take small steps towards different degree of financial freedom.

FunShine has been working in the Community and Social Service Sector for over 10 years. It has always been an interesting sector to work in.

He has decided to take a 6 months break and live prudently, surviving on his dividends and interests for his personal expenses.

FunShine does not want to compete with the Joneses and is contented with his lifestyle.

Financial prudence at any age.

Is there anything I would do differently if I could turn back the clock?

A letter from a reader:

Hi AK,

My husband just passed his 31st birthday last month and mine is coming up soon.

We are curious...

Turning back time, what would you have done differently for your personal finance at age 31?

What were the things you wished people had told you when you were 31?

What would you tell the people who are at age 31 now?

:)

Cheers.
A

AK's reply:

Hi A,

For me, it was always about being financially prudent and investing (mostly for income) for greater financial security. Delay gratification, do the right things and we will have plenty of stuff for free many years down the road. ;)

HAPPY BIRTHDAY!

Best wishes,
AK

If we consume more now, we will have less later. If we consume less now, we will have more later. Of course, even if we understand this, what we do would depend on our circumstances.

Simply put, it is not about emulating AK or anyone else, it is about improving our own financial health in a meaningful way, year after year.

As long as we are making progress, stay the course and we will thank ourselves in future.

Related posts:
1. AK is showing off his CPF numbers.
2. Dividend Machines for greater financial security.
3. So, you want to be financially free?
4. Delaying gratication and getting stuff we want for free.

Tea with STE: How I stage and apply my war-chest in current volatile market.

This is another guest blog from fellow early retiree, STE:

 

I guess everyone would have their own strategies or methods to use their war-chest in hoping to get the best return from the market.  Since our “war-chest “ is quite limited , sometime we may face the problems of using up the war-chest quickly and seeing the share price keep dropping from the last purchased . Here , I’m not trying to promote the “market timing “ in hoping to get the lowest price before market swing upwards. I always think that “time in the market “ is much more important that “timing the market “ as we may see the power of compounding if we stayed long enough in the market .

But remember ,trying to “timing the market “ in short time frame e.g days , weeks or even months … is speculative in nature rather than investment .  What I am trying to explain is more on ‘spotting the stage of market cycle “ in much more longer time frame to increase our “odds “ in winning the market .

Can we really catch the “bottom “ of market ? My answer is definitely NO .  As I mentioned before , nobody will be able to tell you where will be the market heading in coming months or when will be the “bottom “ of the market . Investing is about “probability not certainty “ , we can’t tell where the stock market will be performing in months ahead  but we may be able to use valuation base on “statistical terms “ in estimating the current market cycle and base on that to calculate the odds of winning the market in our bet .

In general , we may be using different types of methods in applying our war-chest ,, some may be using 52 weeks high-low or fundamental valuation of PE / Div Yield / PB value etc.

Each strategies having their own merit since there is “ 100 ways to skin a cat “ ..but sometimes , in such volatile and irrational market ,,, price can be lower than 52 weeks ( this is problem of “anchoring the price “ ) ,, and valuation base on Div Yield may appear if price dropped drastically e.g case of Noble or Semcorp Marine for low PE…

For me , I would look at “market valuation “ and then mowing to “stock selection “ ie from “macro to micro “ kind of analyses . I will be using the “trend analysis “ which shown the long term trend of index by plotting the chart using “linear regression “ concept . If you still remember , I have mentioned 2 very important concept in my previous post :

//quote//
My investment philosophy is simple. We only need to know two things:

1) Margin of safety
2) Mean Reversion

// unquote//

Market always move in cycle and reverting to mean , using “linear regression “ , we may plot a long term “trend line “ of any stock index and by using the trend line , we might be able to see the current stage of market in long term “market cycle “.

Please refer to these link to understand more about :

< Linear Regression >

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/09/linear-regression-time-price.asp

< Mean Reversion>

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/meanreversion.asp

 

Such trend analysis also being used by few prominent investors/ bloggers e.g Prof Chan Yan Chong in his so call “ Chan Channel “ .

 

Now , let’s look at the “ Linear Regression “  trend chart  base on data downloaded from Yahoo Finance : since 1987 .

 

Note :

Red line represent the long term regression line for STI index.

Green line represent the +/- 1 SD from the regression mean ( covering about 68% of the market price swing )

Yellow line represent the +/- 2 SD from the regression mean ( covering about 95% of the market price swing )

One may notice that , in the long run ,, the trend line will be in upward trend and this represent the market value increased due to increasing economic activities / company business expansion which eventually translated into profit and price .

Base on this chart and statistically speaking , I should be more “aggressive “ in applying my war-chest when index hit “green line “ or -1 SD at around 2500 level and be “very aggressive “ when it hit 2200 level at yellow line ( -2 SD ) .

Well , these two lines is not the “definite “ bottom … as quoted below :

 “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”
By John Maynard Keynes

 

For sure , nobody know and Index can go below 2200 , but that will be the time where “value “ appear when market been beaten down a lot with “fears and panic” all over the news and TV .

“Whether we’re talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down.“ by Warren Buffet.

Easier said than done , we really need good discipline and patience in such volatile and uncertain market .

Investing has always been tied to emotions same as shopping, eating, and other areas of decision making. But if we can understand these impulses and use emotions to our advantage, we might be able to shorten our journey to achieve financial independence.

I am using my war-chest by applying the buying strategies base on above to increase my “odds “ in winning the market .. how about you ?

Remember, stock have always come out from the crisis, and again , quoted below from Warren Buffet and time will tell the story eventually ….

“Over the long term, the stock market news will be good. In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497.”
- Warren Buffet

 

 

Disclaimer :

Any stock or strategies mentioned in this article is just meant for illustration purposes and not recommendation to buy or sell. Readers are advised to conduct their own independent research into individual stocks before making a purchase decision. In addition, readers are advised that past stock performance is not indicative of future price action.

You should be aware of the risks involved in stock investing, and you use the material contained herein at your own risk.