Old Chang Kee: More free curry puffs on the way!

In an interview earlier on in the year, I talked about Old Chang Kee as being a very rewarding investment for me. I also mentioned how a 5c dividend which went XD in January was a pleasant surprise.

Well, Old Chang Kee announced a final dividend of 1.5c for FY2013. This is nice although I will be receiving half of what I would usually receive in absolute amount since I divested half of my investment in the company earlier on in the year.

Amidst rather more difficult business conditions, Old Chang Kee's management has shown a high level of business savvy as they improved production efficiency, closed non-profitable outlets and revised prices last December. As of March 2013, it had a total of 76 outlets in Singapore which is 6 outlets lesser than a year ago.

Net profit improved from $4.51m to $4.98m and EPS improved from 4.75c to 4.96c. These figures are on the back of improved gross profit margin from 60.1% to 61.4%.

What is more impressive is that the $4.51m net profit for the preceding year was based on a 15 months financial year because Old Chang Kee announced a change of its financial year in August 2011.

So, if we were to assume an average net profit of $1.245m per quarter in FY2013, over 5 quarters would give us $6.225m. This means that net profit increased almost 40%, year on year. Impressive!

Business costs are expected to remain high but Old Chang Kee's management have, so far, impressed with their business savvy and with the brand deeply entrenched in Singapore, it is reasonable to expect the company to continue doing well.

At 56c a share, PER is 11.29x. Not cheap but not expensive either. I would say it is fairly valued. What am I going to do now? Wait to receive the dividend and maybe buy some curry puffs tomorrow.

Related posts:
1. Old Chang Kee: Have my curry putt and eat it too.
2. Old Chang Kee: Initiated long position at 26c.
3. Tea with AK71: An audio interview.

What should I do? A letter from a 64 year old retiree.

I am sharing an exchange I had with a reader a few days ago because I think others could possibly be interested in it:

Hi, AK71,

1.        I have been following your blog for quite some time and find your explanation and reasoning of the stock market very interesting.  Not many people are so frank like you that are willing to give an in-depth advice of the financial market.    So far, I did not pen anything in your blog to ask for your advice, as I could not express myself well in writing. 
 

2.        I would like to seek your kind advice to set up a reasonable and proper stock portfolio to earn passive income.  I am a 64 years old retiree and living on passive income from dividends from my 44 stocks in my portfolio.  Overall, I have made a capital gain of about 15 - 20% from these 44 stocks (with some profits and some losses for each stock).    I know that 44 stocks are very difficult to monitor but I do not know how to diversify them.  Each time the market drop, my heart drop too.  At this age, I cannot effort to loss much of my hard earned money, as I do not have time to wait for the market to recover again.
 

3.        I would appreciate your kind professional advice.  Thank you.

My reply:

Hi J,

I really hate to disappoint you but I am not a professional financial adviser. I would suggest that you find professionals and engage their services.

However, what would I do if I were in your shoes? This is the part where I talk to myself. Please ignore me.

First, understand my motivations! I am in my 60s and retired. I am not able to suffer another market crash for more reasons than one. I am interested in a predictable flow of passive income.

Secondly, go through my portfolio of 44 stocks. Compartmentalise the investments into those that match my motivations and those which do not.

Thirdly, keep the investments which match my motivations and think about possibly increasing exposure to these investments when prices are softer. Sell those investments which do not match my motivations at an opportune time and never look back.

Fourthly, money from divestments should go into a dedicated "war chest" to buy more stocks which match my motivations during times when Mr. Market goes into manic depression.

Throughout, I have to understand that this is the general framework that I must keep in mind but being a framework, it will overlook finer details which could influence my decision to invest or to divest in specific instances.

Best wishes,
AK

Everyone has different circumstances and motivations. There is never a universal solution to all problems. If we understand our motivations, we will know what is most appropriate for us.

Related posts:
1. A letter from a 66 year old retiree.
2. A letter from a reader in his early 20s.
3. A letter from a 24 year old fresh grad.
4. Voices, noises and choices.