Posts
When I revealed that I had a BUY order queued at 85.5c, a reader was concerned. He said that he bought some units in Croesus Retail Trust at 87c because he read my blogs and how I first initiated a long position at 87c too.
 |
| From Winston Koh's FB wall. |
Do I think that the unit price will fall a bit more?
Well, I don't know. My bowling ball has been rather quiet lately. Not talking to me. Maybe, I should give it a good rub later but that sounds like work and I am such a lazy guy. Bad AK! Bad AK!
What I do know is that selling pressure seems to have eased, looking at the higher lows in the CMF and the MFI.
 |
| Click to enlarge. |
The moving averages are all bunching up which implies a very low level of volatility and this congestion in the moving averages will serve to be an important support or resistance in future. In future?
Yes, with the Bollinger Bands having narrowed, I would not be surprised if this period of low volatility should be followed by a big move in unit price in the near future.
Big move? Up or down? Well, if I should hazard a guess, with the CMF and MFI the way they are, I would say "up". However, if these should be negated and if unit price were to move down instead, using Fibo retracement lines, the 138.2% golden ratio is at 85.5c.
So, this solves the mystery of why AK71 has put in a BUY order at 85.5c. For those who say they feel safer if they buy at a lower price than me, well, 85c is a possibility too since that is where we find the 161.8% golden ratio.
At 85c or 85.5c, we are looking at a prospective 9.62 to 9.68% in distribution yield, according to guidance provided by the management. It would also mean getting in with a bigger discount to the Trust's NAV.
There is no way I can predict the price movement. However, I do know what I would do in each scenario.
Asking what would we do is more useful than asking what would the price do.
After all, we have control of our faculties (I hope) but we do not have any control over Mr. Market's actions.
Some numbers (pre-MTN):
 |
| From: Presentation to investors (7 & 8 Jan 2014). |
Related posts:
1. Croesus Retail Trust: Overnight BUY order filled. (I looked at how the S$100 million MTN could affect the Trust here.)
2. Why some were burnt badly.
Bloggy Award