IREIT: Is the projected distribution yield of 8% safe?

For investors who plonked down money in IREIT's IPO at 88c a unit, they must be feeling somewhat relieved that the turmoil in the European markets, following the move by Switzerland to scrap a 3 year peg to the Euro, sending the Swiss Franc sky rocketing, has not affected IREIT's unit price. 

However,  I have a faint suspicion that this feeling could give way in time to come.

I did not take part in the IPO partly because I didn't like the fact that it was priced at a hefty premium to its NAV of 78c per unit. 





When we are buying real estate, we must have a very good reason to pay a premium to valuation. 

If it is a hefty premium, the reason must be even better. 

Often, it is on some expectation that the piece of real estate would provide higher returns in future either in the form of higher rental income or capital gain. 

However, I have difficulty seeing both or either one happening in IREIT's portfolio.

I also wondered if the promised yield of 8% per year was actually going to be sustainable. 

This is especially so when there was no currency hedge in place and, bearing in mind what Mr. Lee Kuan Yew said about the Euro before, I was not sure if the currency's strength might not falter.

From my FB wall last year in August.

In fact, with many Eurozone economies very weak and requiring more help in terms of money supply, my expectation was for some form of QE by the ECB which now seems imminent. 

This could, in fact, be the reason why the Swiss decided that enough is enough and scrapped the currency peg to the Euro.

In the event of QE by the ECB, what is going to happen to the Euro? 

The currency would most likely fall in value. 





The US$ fell in value when the Fed carried out rounds of QE. 

The JPY fell when the Japanese carried out what is now called QQE. 

So, it is not going to be an exception with the Euro.

With the expected QE by the ECB, the Euro, this time, would not just fall in value against the Swiss Franc, it would also fall in value against the S$. 

This is going to affect the value of IREIT's portfolio in S$ terms and it is going to affect income distribution as well in S$ terms.

SG/JPY. Source: Yahoo!Finance.

How much would the Euro decline against the S$? 

I don't have an exact figure, of course, but remember that the JPY sank as much as 30% against the S$ from its peak in 2012. Quite alarming.

To be honest, I do not think that the Euro would fall as much as 30% against the S$. 

The JPY was perceived as a safe haven, for some reason, and was attracting quite a bit of interest before its decline. Thus, it had more room to fall. 

The Euro, on the other hand, doesn't have such a lofty status to begin with.





So, what is my opinion of IREIT now?

Although I rather like the stability of the REIT's income, the inability to milk more rental income from its current portfolio plus the strong FOREX risk means that if I want more certainty of an 8% yield in future (which was what attracted many investors to part with their money in the first instance), then, I would need a lower offer price from Mr. Market.





Related post:
Mr. Lee Kuan Yew on the Eurozone.

To be richer, do not indulge in creature comforts. Really?

I am definitely not one of Starbucks' favourite people as I always tell family, friends and readers of my blog that Starbucks coffee is very expensive. 

I am always using Starbucks as an example of something that is really not a necessity in life. OK, for some of us, we need to drink coffee but do we need to drink Starbucks coffee? OK, definitely, their shareholders don't like me too.

Well, this is one of the perils of being the leader in an industry.  Yes, whenever I think of expensive coffee, I think of Starbucks. 

Depending on how you look at this, it could either be a good thing or a bad thing. So, maybe, they would look at it as a good thing, be flattered and don't dislike me that much.

Anyway, there are times when I would indulge in a bit of Starbucks coffee although I am not much of a coffee drinker, preferring tea most of the time. Iced mocha? I rather like that although friends have told me that it isn't real coffee. It is more like a chocolate plus coffee mixture. Adulterated. OK, I am not into gourmet coffee nor gourmet anything. If I like the taste, it is good for me.

So, when are the times I would indulge? Here is an example:

Yes, I know. I am terrible.

I think some readers would remember that I shared what David Gan said in an interview before:

"Tell you a secret. I have a bad habit. If it is not expensive, I don't buy."

People like David Gan would look down on people like me.

Well, AK has a secret too. Nah, I am not going to say it. I am sure you know what it is.

Anyway, I do agree that there is nothing wrong with indulging once in a while. For example, why have only one Fillet-O-Fish for lunch? Have two!

Easily my favourite thing on the menu at McDonald's but at $3.95 each, it isn't cheap. However, it looks much better when we have this:

It is not about not indulging in creature comforts, it is about looking to get greater value for money and trying not to pay full price for anything.

OK, I am feeling full and doubly happy now.

Related posts:
1. Kopi with Song Stonecold.
2. A meal for $2.00 from McDonald's.
3. Seven money habits of AK71's.