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QAF's earnings down but cash increased. What is this?

Wednesday, December 13, 2017

Reader says...
Thanks for talking to yourself!

Really helpful in terms of long term planning for FI.

Just wanted to get some of your thoughts on QAF..

Latest results show much lower earnings (~60% less), and the stock price took a hit..

However, i see that their cash on hand has increased quite a lot.

With all the other news about it i.e. IPO not proceeding..

Could you talk to yourself on this?

AK says...
The weakness in earnings is probably cyclical (due to oversupply of pork in Australia).

So, I am waiting to buy more if Mr. Market should go into a depression.

You might want to read the related posts at the end of this blog.

Reader says...
How would you define a depression for them, and how would you conclude that their mgmt is taking the right steps? Thanks!

AK says...
If we accept that the weakness is cyclical and not structural, then, we understand that earnings will recover. 

It could take months or years but it will recover.

To be able to weather cyclical downturns, a company must have a strong balance sheet. 

This is what Marco Polo Marine has taught me. 

QAF has a strong balance sheet.

A company could become more valuable over the years but due to downturns which could be prolonged, its stock could trade at relatively low prices. 

That would be a good time to accumulate. 

This is what Wilmar has taught me.

QAF is more valuable today than it was a few years ago.

As for the management, I let their track record speak for them. 

Holding a relatively large controlling stake, they are driven to make QAF more and not less valuable.

Reader says...
I'm still young and willing to wait for recovery, just want to be certain of my decisions ๐Ÿ™‚

1) Could i ask why you believe the downturn is cyclical?

Thanks for your time!

AK says...
The primary production business is a commodity business.

This is similar to Wilmar's businesses in agriculture.

This is a cyclical business.

I am referring to QAF's pork business in Australia, of course.

Related posts:
1. Plunging earnings at QAF.
2. Wondering about QAF.

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