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CapitaMalls Asia: Dicey.

Tuesday, June 1, 2010

For three consecutive sessions, the downtrend resistance line has been tested and broken. Today, it seems that price has closed above this line at $2.11 while being supported by the 20dMA. The bugbear is, of course, the negative divergence between the rising price and the falling volume. If volume does not expand meaningfully as price increases, any further upside might be capped by the declining 50dMA.

Where the momentum oscillators are concerned, the MFI has been forming higher highs and higher lows, suggesting rising buying momentum. The MACD is rising and has stayed above the signal line which is promising although it is still in negative territory. The OBV is not as encouraging and is flattish.  All these technicals combined with the price action forming higher lows and lower highs which create a symmetrical triangle suggest caution to be exercised when going long here.

Any continuing move upwards would be met with resistance in a band from the 50dMA at $2.17 to $2.19.  Without a meaningful expansion in volume, it is unlikely that this resistance band would be overcome. Further downside should find initial support at $2.03, provided by the uptrend support.  Until the symmetrical triangle resolves itself to have price go either up or down, the situation remains dicey.


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