Portfolio review: Unexpectedly eventful.

At the end of last year, I shared the results of my efforts in the stock market and also my strategy to grow wealth and augment income in the new year. Quite a few things have happened since then. So, I decided to do a review of how things have moved.

In the S-REITs department, the biggest change this year to my portfolio has to be the major divestment in Sabana REIT. My current long position in the REIT is just a bit more than 10% of my investment at its largest. Whatever I have left is free of cost and will continue to generate passive income although on a much smaller scale.

Also in the S-REITs department, I took part in AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT's rights issue and tried to get more excess rights but without much success. Recently, I sold a small percentage of my investment, believing that it was the right thing to do as its unit price ran up, post rights. This REIT is still my largest investment in S-REITs. Having said this, passive income received from this REIT will shrink some 15% this year, given the dilution from the recent rights issue.

In the Business Trusts department, I decided to divest completely my investment in Perennial China Retail Trust after receiving another round of income distribution which I concluded was unsustainable. This was before the takeover offer by St. James.

Also in the Business Trusts department, in late January, I more than doubled my investment in Croesus Retail Trust, believing that, trading at a discount to valuation and offering an attractive income distribution, it is a more dependable passive income generator than Perennial China Retail Trust. Although its relatively high level of gearing is a concern for some, there is unlikely to be any nasty surprises in the area of financing over the next few years.

In other stocks, I added to my long positions in Yongnam and Hock Lian Seng. Yongnam hit a rough patch, as expected. However, things are likely to improve later this year and probably the next. It is a leader in what it does and it has a very good track record. Last year's performance was exceptionally bad and probably would not be repeated. I like how Yongnam started to pay meaningful dividends in recent years and this is likely to continue, conditions permitting.

Hock Lian Seng, like Yongnam, is in the construction sector and also like Yongnam, I expect it to be a beneficiary of increased spending on infrastructure projects in the country. Already, Hock Lian Seng won two major projects which have bumped up its order book and will provide earnings visibility for some time to come. There will probably be more order wins in future. Of course, Hock Lian Seng also pays meaningful dividends which I like.

One stock which I have been waiting for an opportunity to accumulate was CapitaMalls Asia. Well, it is a pity that it will be taken private by its parent, CapitaLand, which offered $2.22 a share. I feel that it is a fair enough price which, perhaps, suggests that the price at IPO was unfair but I will let readers draw their own conclusions in this contentious issue. My acceptance form has been sent out.

A stock which I have turned more cautious on is Marco Polo Marine. Recent developments mean that the business is now somewhat different from what I envisioned it to be in my initial investment thesis. Not giving enough consideration to how the tugs and barges could be a drag on overall performance before, I decided to trim my exposure to the stock. Things could improve in future but, for now, the level of clarity has lowered.

The first few months of the year have turned out to be a bit more eventful than expected on the investment front. My war chest is now fuller through some divestments as well as dividends received. I do not have any immediate plans for the funds and I will probably just hold on to them for now. After all, I had felt that I was too much invested in the stock market and had desired a bigger cash position.

Of course, if I were to keep the status quo, I will, for sure, receive a much lower level of income from my investments in S-REITs this year. How much lower? I guess we will know by end of the year.

Having said this, my decision to increase my level of investment in SPH and NeraTel last year so that my overall portfolio is less reliant on S-REITs for passive income was pre-emptive. Enlarging investments in Hock Lian Seng and Croesus Retail Trust earlier this year has also helped to reduce reliance on S-REITs for passive income.

What next? I certainly do not know if the economy will do well or if it would suffer a decline in the next few years. However, I do know that I am staying invested as long as my investments have reasonably sturdy fundamentals and, preferably, are able to generate reasonably good income for me. They don't have to be stellar performers and I don't have a problem with getting rich slowly.

I will simply wait for Mr. Market to feel depressed enough to sell more to me at prices I cannot refuse while I collect regular dividends in the meantime.

Related posts:
1. A strategy to grow wealth and augment income.
2. Sabana REIT: 1Q 2014 DPU 1.88c.
3. AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: $1.425.
4. Perennial China Retail Trust: Fully divested.
5. Croesus Retail Trust: DPU above forecast.
6. Yongnam: DPS of 0.6c.
7. Hock Lian Seng: $221.8 million contract.
8. CapitaMalls Asia: Farewell.
9. Marco Polo Marine: Price weakness.
10. SPH: Within expectations.
11. NeraTel: A very good investment.

CapitaMalls Asia: Farewell.

I have filled the form in acceptance of the voluntary conditional cash offer for CapitaMalls Asia.

Although there are arguments that the offer price is unfair and although I can understand the arguments, I feel that there is a great degree of subjectivity too. Much is relative.

Just like how we compare an investment with another to see how it could be undervalued or overvalued, we could also compare an investment with itself in the past to see how its value has changed over time.

CapitaLand’s offer works out to about 1.2x CapitaMalls Asia’s book value now which is cheaper than the 1.5x book value when it listed in 2009. If we want 1.5x book value today, the price is closer to $2.70 a share.

So, for someone who bought into CapitaMalls Asia at the IPO price of $2.12 a share, obviously, the voluntary conditional cash offer of $2.22 a share leaves a bad taste in the mouth. However, for someone who bought at under $1.20 a share during the lows in late 2011 which was at a 20% discount to the NAV/share back then, $2.22 is probably a sweet enough exit price.

I think it is a fair enough offer and I explained why in an earlier blog post:

"The NAV/share is $1.84. So, this offer is a 20% premium to book value. NAV grew 10% year on year. So, being paid $2.22 a share, it is like getting paid in advance for growth that is likely to happen in the next couple of years."

We might want to remember what Warren Buffett thinks of IPOs. If you cannot remember, go to the earlier blog post I mentioned above: CapitaMalls Asia: Being offered $2.22 a share.

Better to wait for a price that is so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good results.

CapitaMalls Asia: Being offered $2.22 a share.

I have been a CapitaMalls Asia shareholder since middle of 2011 and when I found out that the parent is offering to delist the company, I had mixed feelings.

The positive is that at $2.22 per share, the offer price is fair. The NAV/share is $1.84. So, this offer is a 20% premium to book value. NAV grew 10% year on year. So, being paid $2.22 a share, it is like getting paid in advance for growth that is likely to happen in the next couple of years.

The negative is that I will lose the chance to buy more of a stock which I believe was going through a period of price weakness, given the concerns about China. So, I was looking forward to accumulating with a greater margin of safety (i.e. buying at a bigger discount to NAV). Well, not going to happen now.

With an IPO price of $2.12 a share in late 2009, privatising CapitaMalls Asia with an offer price of $2.22 a share makes sense. It is like borrowing money from the public and paying an interest of only 1.05% per annum over a 4 and a half year period.

This is, perhaps, a good time to remember what Warren Buffett once said.

The idea that an IPO, offered with significant commissions, with all kinds of publicity, with the seller electing the time to sell, is going to be the single best investment that I can make in the world among thousands of choices is mathematically impossible.

Buffett is the reason why I have not bought into any initial public offerings in many years.

Anyway, I will probably channel the funds from this divestment into a war chest and wait for Mr. Market to feel depressed again. There is no hurry to buy anything.

Read press release: here.

Related post:
A strategy to grow wealth and augment income.

A strategy to grow wealth and augment income (2013).

I am primarily investing for income and in my last blog post, in what has become a yearly practice, I revealed my full year income from S-REITs as well as how they fit into my investment strategy. They are relevant to income investors but with the spectre of rising interest rates in the years ahead as well as a peaking in the real estate cycle here, it is sensible not to be overly optimistic about S-REITs in general.

So, apart from a large purchase made in Saizen REIT in the middle of 2012, I have devoted most of my resources to stocks. These should be undervalued and are likely to continue growing for years to come. Since I want to have income from my investments, I would also like for these stocks to pay dividends.

Marco Polo Marine's yard in Batam.

Now, with these stocks, the main strategy is to buy and hold. However, I am not averse to trading around my investments. So, I could divest partially or fully if it is a good idea to do so. For 9M 2013, I revealed that I locked in gains of S$188,625.13. Has the number changed?

Well, I mentioned that I partially divested my investment in Sabana REIT last month. This added S$12,860.03 to gains from trading in 2013.

So, total trading gains in 2013 is S$201,485.16.

What about adding to my long positions?

What I hope to do primarily is to identify good companies, initiate long positions in them at fairly good prices and then wait to add to these positions if there should be bad news which send their share prices down. These are companies which I am comfortable to stay invested in for years, knowing that they possess some competitive advantages which differentiate them.

Warren Buffett famously said that we should invest with the thought that the stock market could close the next day and not reopen for five years. What does this mean?

Invest in stocks of companies which we are confident will do better over the next five years. We wouldn't be bothered by any volatility in their stock prices in the meantime unless it is to add to our long positions with greater margins of safety. If we understand this, we will know what stocks to avoid. How? Do an inversion.


With this in mind, in the last three months, I added to my long positions in NeraTel and Yongnam as their share prices declined due to bad news which I believe are neither long term nor recurring in nature. I have received fairly good dividends from these stocks and I also made some money trading these stocks earlier in the year.

I also added to my long position in SPH. I was paid both the special dividend and the year end dividend for this as well.

Marco Polo Marine is still my single largest investment although its share price has not declined significantly enough for me to add to my long position. The much higher dividend per share paid out recently was a bonus.

I also retain long positions in CapitaMalls Asia and Wilmar International. These are strong companies and leaders in their fields. They are likely to do better in future.

So, was anything new added to my portfolio?

I initiated a long position in Croesus Retail Trust and even added to this position by using funds freed from a partial divestment of Sabana REIT.

Wait a minute? Didn't I say that I am wary of rising interest rates and a possible peaking of the real estate cycle? Yes, I did but Croesus Retail Trust owns malls in Japan and the BOJ is bent on keeping interest rates really low. Abenomics demand this. The Trust has a relatively low cost of debt which is locked in for 5 years.

Luz Shinsaibashi.

Japan has also suffered from continual deflation for 20 years. If anything, the real estate cycle should have a greater chance of bottoming than peaking. Anecdotal evidence tells of a recovering real estate market in recent months that is likely to pick up speed in future.

Although my strategy, with a generous dose of luck, has worked well this year, I can only hope that it will continue to work in the new year.

To grow wealth and augment income? Yes, indeed, that is the plan.

Related posts:
1. 2013 full year income from S-REITs.
2. Yongnam: Substantial shareholder increased stake.
3. NeraTel: Added to my long position.
4. Marco Polo Marine: Exciting times ahead.

9M 2013 income from S-REITs and more.

Three more months to the end of the year. Lots of things have happened in the first 9 months of the year. I want to zoom in on the investment front and record some of my thoughts.

The strategy to be invested in S-REITs for income is still working. Of course, with the spectre of the Fed cutting back on QE and a possible increase in interest rates in the next 2 or 3 years, Mr. Market has turned cautious on leveraged investments like S-REITs. This is only natural. Unit prices of S-REITs have become more realistic as a result.

When Mr. Market is pessimistic, that is when we are likely to get good deals. As to what is a good deal, I am sure this is rather subjective. Every person would have a different idea of what is an acceptable margin of safety. Every person would have a different perception of a REIT's prospects.

Having built up a relatively large portfolio of S-REITs, I devoted more resources to investing in what I believe are undervalued stocks, something which I continue to do in 2013.

So, essentially, what I have done is to keep what has worked well for me thus far while expanding my investments in certain companies, recognising possibly more difficult times ahead for S-REITs. 

This is an approach that requires more work than simply getting passive income from S-REITs but the time when it was a no-brainer to buy and hold S-REITs probably ended sometime in the second half of 2012.

For 9M 2013, how much did I receive in passive income from S-REITs? 

$92,872.65

Full year 2013 income from S-REITs is most likely going to be lower compared to 2012 because I sold a significant portion of my investment in LMIR earlier this year and also because Saizen REIT distributes income half yearly (i.e. there is no income distribution in December from Saizen REIT).

Also, we might want to bear in mind that, although hedged, the weaker Indonesian Rupiah and Japanese Yen could result in lower income distributions in S$ terms for unit holders of these REITs in the year 2014.

With twice as much industrial space being scheduled for completion in 2014 and 2015 than any single year in the past decade, the possibility of stagnating or even a reduction in income for industrial S-REITs in future cannot be discounted. This is why looking at WALE (Weighted Average Lease Expiry) of industrial S-REITs is more important now.

Although I would have liked nothing better than to sit back and collect passive income regularly from S-REITs, doing very little else, I decided to move out of my comfort zone. For sure, there were bumps along the way but my efforts have generally been rewarding thus far. 

What did I do?

I increased my investments in stocks which are likely to be dependable passive income generators such as SPH and NeraTel. 

I also hold long positions in stocks which I believe would benefit from the Chinese consumption story such as CapitaMalls Asia, PCRT and Wilmar. 

Any dividend from investing in these stocks and any gain from trading would go towards cushioning the possible decline in income from S-REITs in future.

Up to 15 September 2013, the total gain from trading this year amounts to: 

$188,625.13

It was fortuitous the way the China Minzhong saga turned out. It preserved my trading gains and grew it rather significantly at the same time. Apart from my long position in Wilmar, all other investments are in the black. 

So, what is my plan for the future? 

Nothing profound really. 

If prices were to decline much more, I hope I would be brave enough to buy more. If prices were to rise much more, I hope I would remember to sell some.

The grand scheme is to augment and not to replace my passive income portfolio. 

For sure, it doesn't mean that I think S-REITs are going the way of the Dodo. Indeed, they are still good investments for income at the right prices. For me, passive income from S-REITs will still be an important pillar in achieving financial freedom. This is unlikely to change in the foreseeable future.

Remember, this blog is not meant to instruct but if anyone finds it inspiring, I will be happy enough.

Related posts:
1. 2012 full year income from S-REITs.
2. Never lose money in real estate and S-REITs?
3. Do not love unless it is worth the loving.
4. Motivations and methods in investing.
5. Be cautious climbing the S-REIT tree.
6. Be comfortable with being invested.

CapitaMalls Asia: Interim dividend of 1.75c declared.

CapitaMalls Asia is slowly and steadily improving its EPS and increasing its DPS. The latest results are encouraging and affirmed my conviction that this stock is going to be worth much more in a few years' time.

1H 2013 EPS: 8.2 c
1H 2013 DPS: 1.75c

Payout ratio: 21.34%.

The company's malls in China show a high percentage growth in NPI of 12.1% while malls in Singapore only registered a 2% NPI growth, reflecting the mature market here. The company's strategy of being in China and being there early is paying off nicely.

CapitaMalls Asia owns real estate and I would like to buy at a discount to the net value of its assets, if possible. The number to look at? Its NTA/share of $1.78.

Of course, paying a bit more for professional managers and also growth that seems to be in the bag is not an unreasonable proposition. In fact, at $2.00, some might say that it is hardly expensive. Indeed, annualising its 1H 2013 EPS would mean a PER of 12.2x. Fair? I think so.

After all, we have to remember that CapitaMalls Asia is not only a developer and owner of malls, it also derives a significant portion of its income from REITs in the family. This income stream is recurring and dependable.

However, I am also corrupted by TA and it is clear that the stock is in a downtrend which started in February 2013. That was also the last time I blogged about the stock. Resistance for the week is at $2.04.

Weekly chart.

If resistance at $2.04 could be overcome convincingly (i.e. with high volume), then, the downtrend would have been broken and exciting times could be in store for fellow shareholders of CapitaMalls Asia.

If things turn out to be less than exciting, well, I will be sure to dip into my war chests to accumulate at prices closer to or below NTA/share.

See presentation: here.

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: Reduced exposure.

CapitaMalls Asia: Reduced exposure.

Although analysts from Citibank, OCBC and more have given CapitaMalls Asia glowing reports, the long black candle which was formed yesterday on the back of very high volume was ominous.

Breaking immediate support provided by the 20d MA earlier in the week, the bearishness was confirmed as trading started under the 20d MA. It then went on to hit the 50d MA at $2.06 before recovering a bit to close at $2.08.

The question to ask now is whether the 50d MA, the new immediate support, would hold. The MFI has formed a lower high. The MACD has formed a lower high. Negative divergences aplenty and bearing in mind that prices go down a river of hope, I put in an overnight sell order at $2.12 to reduce exposure.

If we look at the weekly chart which provides a longer term picture, the 20w MA is still under $2.00. Currently, it is at $1.93. So, in the event of further high volume selling, we could well see the share price going lower to this longer term support.

The longer term uptrend is still intact but we cannot discount the possibility of a stronger correction in the shorter term. So, as I try to be pragmatic instead of being overly bullish or bearish, I have reduced exposure at what I think is the support turned resistance at $2.12.

CapitaMalls Asia: New 12 month high in the making.

The share price of CapitaMalls Asia has been rising and with strong momentum too. Amidst bullish calls by research houses, I would not be surprised if its share price were to go even higher.

Citigroup adds CapitaMalls Asia (JS8.SG) to its Focus List.

"In the next few years, we expect China to be the key driver of CMA's earnings growth, as the company harvests gains from multi-year investments that have expanded its footprint to 36 cities in the country. The majority of the China portfolio is still in the growth stage, or in the process of stabilisation. India, from a low base, also offers significant upside potential," it says, expecting its Singapore exposure offers a visible stream of recurring income.

CMA's competitive advantages in China can't be easily replicated, including a strong brand equity and solid track record as a first-mover, ability to tie up with other local developers and access to a varied, cheaper pool of financing, Citi says.

"Moreover, CMA has an efficient capital recycling model (via three listed REITs and six private real-estate funds) that enables capital to be freed up for future growth opportunities, which offers upside to our earnings estimates." It tips CMA as its preferred pick among China's retail landlords and within Singapore's developers. It raises its target to $2.58 from $2.08 after increasing RNAV on changed China cap-rate assumptions; it keeps a Buy call.

Dow Jones & Co, Inc

Friday, 01 February 2013

Today's long white candle day formed on the back of heavy volume is a good sign. Overcoming immediate resistance at $2.24 could see price hitting $2.41 next.

Related posts:
1. CapitaMalls Asia: To buy on possible weakness.
2. CapitaMalls Asia: Any correction is a buying oppotunity.
3. CapitaMalls Asia: Buy more at $1.93.

CapitaMalls Asia: Buy more at $1.93.

Thanks to accumulation at much lower prices, my long position in CapitaMalls Asia is firmly in the black. The question I am faced with now is whether to sell.

Breaking out of a double bottom formation almost one year ago, the share price of CapitaMalls Asia has been climbing a wall of worries. On the weekly chart, the uptrend is clear to see. Could this continue? It could, of course.

Weekly chart.

However, with the MACD histograms not forming higher highs, we could see a pulling back in share price. When? That is harder to say.

This possibly impending weakness is, however, likely to be short lived as the CMF shows smart money pouring back into the stock. Hence, a pull back to support is likely to see strong buying interest.

Drawing a trendline to connect various lows, it is easy to see that the 20w MA is the support to watch. Using Fibo lines, we get a rough idea of where is the support in dollar terms in case a retracement should take place. In this case? $1.93 seems likely.

Remember, as always, that TA is about probability and could help to optimise returns but there is no certainty.

Capitamalls Asia: Longer term uptrend.

Earlier this month, I mentioned that we want to accumulate shares of Capitamalls Asia on any correction in price. Well, it happened while I was away in the USA and anyone who bought some then for a trade would book a 10% gain by now.

Daily chart

Weekly chart

As price rose, volume has been falling. The MACD, a price momentum oscillator, has not formed a higher high even as share price did. The MFI, a momentum oscillator that takes in both price and volume, likewise is lethargic. The negative divergences thus formed suggest a possible correction in share price is near.

In the longer term, share price is likely to continue strengthening as the uptrend is intact with all the MAs rising. So, the appropriate strategy for me continues to be to add at supports. I would look to the 50d MA for guidance as to when to add to long positions.

Related post:
Capitamalls Asia: Any correction is a buying opportunity.

CapitaMalls Asia: Any correction is a buying opportunity.

CapitaMalls Asia's share price is enjoying a strong follow through after breaking resistance. Further increase in share price is likely to meet stronger resistance at $1.93, the 138.2% Fibo line. Overcoming this resistance level would see the next two golden ratios at $2.00 and $2.07 providing resistance.

It remains to be seen if $1.84 is resistance turned support. Stronger support is at $1.705 as that was a many times tested resistance that finally gave way after a period of seven months. Bears would have to be out in full force and more in order to push the share price below $1.705 as the bulls who missed the boat earlier would likely try to get on the boat at this very price, give or take a couple of bids.

All the daily MAs are rising and the picture has turned nicely bullish. Any correction to test supports would be a buying opportunity.

We reckon there may be opportunities for CMA to monetize some assets in 2013, such as Queensbay Mall and its 50% stake in ION Orchard. With continued strong underlying performance from the malls, we maintain our BUY recommendation. Target price is raised to SGD2.25. (Maybank Kim Eng, 29 Oct 12)

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: Broke resistance.

CapitaMalls Asia: Broke resistance.

I got into CapitaMalls Asia way too early. However, taking a cue from the weekly chart, continual buying means my current long position is in the black. Of course, I have collected some dividends in the meantime as well.

Of course, what I have done is by no means brilliant. Far from it. The brilliant thing to do is to buy only when share price has troughed and looks to be turning up. Another lesson for me.

Technically, CapitaMalls Asia's share price broke resistance at $1.70 and it remains to be seen if this could be resistance turned support. With all the MAs rising, it could indeed be the case although a dip to test the rising 50d MA for support would not be too far fetched. The 50d MA is currently at $1.66.

The rising OBV suggests continual accumulation by smart money in the last 12 months. If this reading is correct, we could see share price climbing a wall of worries in the next few months.

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: To buy on possible weakness.

CapitaMalls Asia: Interim dividend of 1.625c per share.

Hurrah!

CapitaMalls Asia posted profit after tax and minority interests (PATMI) of $232 million for 2Q 2012, an increase of 40.7% from the $164.9 million for 2Q 2011.

Earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) were $283.8 million for 2Q 2012, 33.4% higher than the $212.8 million for 2Q 2011.

CapitaMalls Asia has declared an interim dividend of 1.625 cents each.

CapitaMalls Asia’s 2Q earnings up 40.7% to $232m
Thursday, 26 July 2012

© 2012 - The Edge Singapore

Singapore property prices to stay resilient?

If the latest report by Maybank is correct, then, the expected 20 to 30% decline in Singapore property prices over the next couple of years might not transpire. The expectation is now for a mere 10% decline in property prices over the next 18 months. This suggests that any dip in prices could see showflats packed with buyers again.

Related post:
Affordability of housing in Singapore.

Singapore residential sector to see soft landing. Shares in CapitalMalls Asia have jumped nearly 32% this year, while CapitaLand rose 22% and Keppel Land is up nearly 39%.
Tuesday, 19 June 2012

© 2012 - The Edge Singapore

CapitaMalls Asia: To buy on possible weakness.

There is a rather obvious negative divergence between price and the MACD. Higher price was achieved with a lower high on the MACD recently. So, we should not be surprised if the share price should decline in the near future as positive momentum in the short term weakens.

However, look at the OBV. There is no sign of smart money retreating as price rose. In fact, it is scaling higher. This suggests that smart money could use any price weakness as an opportunity to buy.

Indeed, if we look at the weekly chart, there is no sign of a negative divergence. The MACD is rising higher into positive territory. The longer term technicals definitely have a bullish bias.

However, with the share price nearing the declining 100w MA which is at $1.71 now, the near term weakness is not unreasonable. The 100w MA is expected to provide some strong resistance.

With the OBV rising, any pull back in price to supports is likely to be a buying opportunity. The pull back should be on the back of declining volume to make the case for buying more compelling.

Of course, the counter could decide to do a correction using time instead. That would be most annoying but that is Mr. Market.

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: Going XD on 23 April.

CapitaMalls Asia: Going XD on 23 April.

CapitaMalls Asia is paying 1.5c dividend per share on 9 May. It will go XD on 23 April.

What is termed as a true golden cross is going to transpire in the daily chart. This is when the 100d MA forms a bullish crossover with the 200d MA. This is usually an indication that the downtrend is well and truly behind us and any pull back to support is an opportunity to add to or initiate long positions.

A pull back could well happen. The rising price in recent session has not been accompanied by higher volumes. Indeed, the MACD might see a lower high forming, signalling a weakening positive momentum. In fact, a negative divergence could form.

We could see price pulling back initially to the support provided by the 20d MA at $1.56 and perhaps even $1.455. However, bear in mind that in rather bullish circumstances, we could see price moving sideways, doing a correction using time. In an uptrend, a sideway movement is more bullish than bearish.

A successful breakout would see the first upside target at $1.83.

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: Net profit up 42.6%.

STI breaks 3,000 points and stays above 3,000 points!

Although I am keeping to my pledge to spend more time with my family this year, I am also blogging less frequently because work got a bit more demanding.

I might have some spare time occassionally but instead of blogging, I just feel like spending time with a book or watching some movies on my iPad.

I know that some readers are lamenting the recent paucity of blog posts in ASSI and I apologise if I have disappointed.

Anyway, let's talk about my investments. I am now between 50% to 60% invested, closer to 50% is my estimate. With the bulk of my investment for passive income, I don't really have to do very much apart from looking at quarterly reports and receiving regular passive income.

On the real estate front, I am keeping an eye on developments as, after selling my properties last year, I am on a constant lookout for developments in good locations at fair prices.

3,011.68  Up 24.27

Enough of generalities. I put on my blogging cap this evening because the stock market rallied today and broke the 3,000 mark on high volume. The bull has legs and anyone who is still staying on the side with almost 100% in cash could be feeling quite despondent now.

Personally, I experimented with partially divesting some of my investments in REITs in the hope that prices would weaken upon XD to supports so that I could accumulate on weakness. This gambit has fared poorly, unfortunately for me.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT, the second largest investment in my portfolio, rocketed to an intraday high of $1.10 before closing at $1.085. Fundamentally, it is still undervalued although technically, $1.10 could be a resistance to watch. The next higher resistance is at $1.125 while support is at the former resistance of $1.025.

My original plan of buying on weakness at 97c or so has to be shelved for now.

Sabana REIT, the largest investment in my portfolio, has tested its recent high of 91.5c yet again. Immediate support is at 90c. See the higher lows formed since early August 2011 while price repeatedly tested the gap resistance and gap fill at 91c and 91.5c?

Could Sabana REIT break resistance and go higher as well? My original plan to purchase more units upon retracement to stronger supports starting at 87c is also being shelved for now.

What is most satisfying about today's rally for me is the long white candle formed on the back of much higher volume for CapitaMalls Asia. The downtrend is well and truly broken. An uptrend is firmly entrenched. Notice how volume has been increasing as price rose from the bottom formed in late December last year? This rally should be durable because volume has been increasing.

Using Fibonacci lines, we see that price closed today at where the 123.6% Fibo line approximates. This is likely a weak resistance and would crumble in time. Golden ratios are at $1.70, $1.75 and $1.795. With half of my investment in the stock at $1.45 and lower, I might take some profit off the table if these ratios should be tested.

30% of my investments are between $1.60 to $1.80. The balance are at $1.80+. These, I might divest to limit losses especially if things look toppish. For now, it looks like price could go higher in the near term. Good luck to one and all.

Related posts:
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: 3Q FY2012.
Sabana REIT: 4Q 2011 results.
CapitaMalls Asia: Net profit up 42.6%.

CapitaMalls Asia: Net profit up 42.6%.

In July last year, I put in a buy order for shares of CapitaMalls Asia because I felt its numbers showed it to be doing well but buying when its price was still firmly in a downtrend proved to be a mistake.

More than half a year later, fundamentally, things are still looking strong while technically, the downtrend has been broken, presenting a more promising picture.

I would be rather surprised if the low of $1.12 would be tested again. Why? Breaking out of the top of a base formation, it is more likely that we would see some support at $1.38 or so in the event of a pull back. Technically, we want to buy on retracements in an uptrend. Buying at supports could prove rewarding.

Some numbers:

Gearing level: 3.9%
NTA per share grew to $1.60
Final dividend of 1.5c per share proposed.

See slides presentation: here.

With more than 50 per cent of its China malls expected to be operational this year, the mall developer said 2012 will be "an inflection point".  Source: CNA. Read article: here.

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: Interim dividend declared.

CapitaMalls Asia: Overcame resistance.

CapitaMalls Asia is rising and stronger than Capitaland too.

Its share price overcame resistance provided by the 20wMA.

Resistance provided by the 138.2% Fibo line at $1.32 is the one to watch now. Could we see a retest of $1.40, the high touched in early November 2011?

The 20wMA could be resistance turned support in the event of a weakening in price. This is at approximately $1.26.

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: 20wMA, the resistance to watch.

CapitaMalls Asia: 20wMA, the resistance to watch.

If you think the title of this blog post looks familiar, it should be. ;)

If you look at the weekly chart of CapitaMalls Asia, you would know why:

Compare this with:
Capitaland: 20wMA, the resistance to watch.