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Showing posts with label China. Show all posts
Showing posts with label China. Show all posts

Hang Seng tech ETF: BUY or SELL?

Friday, November 11, 2022

When I bought some Lion-OCBC Hang Seng Tech ETF, many readers were surprised.

AK the IT dinosaur buys Chinese tech stocks?

Alamak!

Growing senile liao lah!

Well, for those who don't know, read:

Trading Chinese tech stocks for pocket money.

Yes, AK isn't really investing in Chinese tech stocks.

AK is trading Chinese tech stocks.

OK, to be honest, there is also an investing element because I only got interested in Chinese tech stocks after their share prices fell from the sky.

Basically, in recent months, Chinese tech stocks have been trading at valuations which value investors might find interesting.

They were trading at what I thought were crazy high valuations before and proponents were all saying high PE ratios were reasonable for these tech companies.

As it turned out, those crazy high PE ratios were only possible because interest rate was zero or even negative.

Then, there were some meme stocks which rode on speculative fervor and tech stocks which didn't even have a PE ratio because they didn't have any earnings!




Still, since the Lion-OCBC Hang Seng Tech ETF does not pay a dividend, as an investor for income, I have to trade it to generate some income.

One of the things I like to remind myself when it comes to trading stocks is to go for stocks which I do not mind holding on to.

Usually, the reason is because I feel these stocks are mispriced and there is a good chance of prices going higher later.

Of course, how much later I don't know.

If you think this sounds like speculation, it is!

What?

You think speculation is bad?

AK hides his face in shame...




As usual, I would keep my speculative positions small or very small.

So, in the event that we have to hold on to our positions, we won't lose sleep over the matter.

In trading, whenever we can book a gain and take some money off the table, we should do so and I have sold what I purchased at 49 cents a unit in late October at 60 cents a unit today.

The declining 50 days moving average is just a bit above 60 cents and should be immediate resistance.

If this should be cleared, then, the declining 100 days moving average is next and it is now at 69 cents but it could be at 67 cents by end of the month.

Yes, the trend is still down and trading to make some pocket money reduces the cost of holding.

It is just like investing in dividend paying stocks but it isn't passive income in this case.




I treat this as an adventure or an experiment.

With a tiny position, it is not something that is going to make me rich.

If it goes bust, it won't sink me either.

If you like what I am doing and would like to do the same, please be mindful of all the things I have said.

Be pragmatic.

Have to stay nimble.

The bear is still very much in control.

Recently published:
IREIT Global: Update.

Related post:
Cut loss on Alibaba or buy more?




CLCT: Staying defensive and Chinese banks?

Sunday, October 23, 2022

I produced a video recently for my YouTube channel which shared my response to a reader's question on investing in Capitaland China Trust.

In case readers who do not follow my YouTube channel are interested, here is the video:





That video has unexpectedly led to an interesting exchange with another reader and for the benefit of readers who are not subscribed to my YouTube channel, I am sharing it here:

Reader says:

Hihi AK, so your stance on CLCT has never changed ya?

AK says:

I still think CLCT will do well once things normalize. 

How long is that going to take? 

Xi is being pretty stubborn. 

I don't think China will move away from the zero COVID policy anytime soon. 

So, not in a hurry to add. 

Will wait and see.




Reader says:

thanks for ur reply. i cashed out my SSB to divert to CLCT. but now i still hesitating when to enter CLCT. below 0.80 ah? hahaha..

AK says:

China is getting very hard to read. 

On the REIT level, I suspect that the RMB is going to stay weak and it could impact gearing level and DPU and it is not the only thing that is giving me pause. 

It would be interesting to see if CLCT has to give rental support to tenants or not too. 

Greater clarity needed. 

I will (try to) stay defensive and continue to divert funds whenever available to bank stocks, SSB and T-bills.




Reader says:

sg bank stocks exp leh…. China Bank stocks on HKSE ok? 🤭

AK says:

Eh. I don't invest outside of the Singapore Stock Exchange. 

So, I am not a good person to answer that question. 

Singapore banks will benefit from rising interest rates. 

I don't think the Chinese banks have the same tailwind. 

Also, if I were to invest in Chinese banks, I would ask how exposed are they to the likes of Evergrande? 

I feel that to invest in the Chinese banks is really to invest in the Chinese government. 

Why would they be trading at such low PE ratios otherwise? ;p




Readers who are interested in my YouTube channel, here is the link: 





Chinese tech, IREIT Global and CPF.

Thursday, September 22, 2022

On 7 June, I blogged about trading Chinese tech stocks for pocket money.

Back then, Chinese tech stocks experienced uplifts in their prices and I sold some of my units in Lion-OCBC Hang Seng Tech ETF.

What?

AK invests in tech stocks?

Alamak, this must be AK's long lost evil twin blogging!

Anyway, in case you don't know, read:

Investing in Alibaba and Tencent.




I added to my position twice in the ETF in the months leading to 7 June.

The ETF does not pay a dividend and it is not a good fit for the purist income investor.

So, for me to make some money from the ETF, I have to trade which was what happened on 7 June.

See:

Trading Chinese tech stocks.

Pretty decent capital gains.

With the ETF's unit price having declined rather significantly, I decided to add to my reduced position.




I placed an overnight BUY order at a price lower than my average price and it was filled early this morning.

It was slightly lower than the price which marked the lowest point of the double bottom pattern which formed in April and May.

Technically, the ETF is oversold but it could, of course, stay oversold for a while.

I do not see a positive divergence as the MACD has not formed a higher low.

So, the ETF could see its unit price drifting lower or going sideways for a bit.




Could we see the low of 15 March retested?

If that should happen, I hope I would be brave enough to buy some.

Apart from this purchase, I also added to my investment in IREIT Global at close to 50c a unit earlier in the week.

Mr. Market seems to have taken some medication and depression has stabilized.

Still, Mr. Market could get another bout of anxiety and, everything else being equal, I will most probably get more IREIT Global on the cheap then.




The only thing holding me back now is the fact that the new year is coming in about 3 months.

I need to set aside $40,000 to make voluntary contribution and top up to my CPF account.

It might sound like I am complaining but I really am not because, to me, the CPF is a risk free and volatility free investment grade bond.

At my age, having a meaningful investment grade bond component in my investment portfolio is sensible.

My significant CPF savings provides certainty and peace of mind.




I know things are looking pretty bad in more ways than one and on many fronts.

However, we have to soldier on as even the darkest night will eventually pass.

If AK says so, it must be so. ;p

Gambatte!

Recently published:
IREIT Global is a bargain.

References:
1. Inflation, passive income and budget.
2. CPF money is not our money?
3. $1.1 million in CPF savings.




Trading Chinese tech stocks for pocket money.

Tuesday, June 7, 2022

I got into Chinese tech in the middle of April this year.

I had no interest in Chinese tech for the longest time because I thought they were trading at crazy high prices.

There is also the fact that I am an ignoramus when it comes to tech stocks.

Sigh, the truth hurts.

Anyway, I forced myself to finally take an interest in the middle of April as the rapid and drastic multi months decline in Chinese tech stock prices made them looked like stuff which value investors might be interested in.

I was also fortunate because I could easily get exposure to Chinese tech stocks through an ETF listed in Singapore.

Fortunate because if I had to buy in the Hong Kong or U.S. stock exchanges, I probably wouldn't have bothered.

If you don't remember or missed that blog, see:

Investing in Alibaba and Tencent now.

Then, a few days later, after the unit price declined by around 10% from my initial purchase price, I doubled my investment in the ETF.




The plan was to buy again if the low of 15 March 22 should be tested.

The low was not tested and I did not add to my investment.

If you don't remember or missed that blog, see:

Buying more Chinese tech stocks today.

I changed my mind later in May because Nio had a secondary listing in Singapore.

Finally understanding that EVs are no longer a novelty but eventual replacement for ICE vehicles, I decided to get some exposure to Nio.

I bought some of Nio's common stock with an eye to accumulate on further weakness in price, specifically if the lows should be tested.

If you don't remember or missed that blog, see:

Is Nio the new Tesla?




However, just before I published the blog, I discovered that Nio would be included in the Hang Seng Tech Index soon.

I decided there and then that it would be much easier to simply add to my investment in the ETF which I did.

My smallish position in the ETF accounts for just under 1% of my portfolio now.

Both of my tiny investments in Nio and Lion OCBC Securities Hang Seng Tech ETF are nicely in the black now.

The plan is to hold on to my investment in Nio because I want to see how high it could go especially if it is the next Tesla.

Anyway, it is a really small investment.

So, a small gamble.




As for the ETF, my average price is under 70 cents a unit and the plan now is to sell some if the unit price goes much higher from here.

As the ETF does not pay any dividends received to unit holders, the only way to make some money here is through capital gains.

It has been a while since I did any trading and these are the possible levels I have identified:


Zoomed in to see prices clearly.


The longer term moving averages are still declining.

So, I am expecting layers of resistance as unit price tries to go higher.

It looks to me like the Hang Seng Tech ETF has bottomed and we can truly buy the dips now instead of buying the downtrend.

A relatively strong band of support should be at 70 cents to 72 cents a unit.

Related post:
Cut loss on Alibaba or buy more?




Is Nio the new Tesla? Buy or don't buy?

Tuesday, May 24, 2022

This is not something you would expect to read here in ASSI.

AK is known for investing for income.

AK doesn't invest in innovation and tech.

AK is boring.

Hey, AK put some money in Chinese tech and even Bitcoin recently.

OK, ok, it is true that my exposure to Chinese tech and Bitcoin is tiny relative to the size of my portfolio.

Oh, the shame!

Sadness.




Anyway, I have been looking at Nio recently after reading news of its pending secondary listing in Singapore earlier this month.

I know a little bit about EVs and their production now.

I also know that Nio has a horrible balance sheet.

Nio is still burning cash.

It looks like a terrible business to invest in.

However, that's what Tesla was doing in its infancy, burning cash.

Tesla was burning cash and on the verge of bankruptcy when trying to get the Model 3 right.

From what I now know, Tesla struggled for years before turning profitable.

Although I have done some research, I am sure I have only scratched the surface.

This is very similar to how much or, more accurately, how little I know about Chinese tech and Bitcoin.

Not knowing a lot but enough knowledge to get me to put some money to work.




What about Nio?

There are so many things which I have found out.

However, two points stick out for me:

1. Nio is still burning cash but we have Tesla's experience to quite possibly show Nio the way to the future.

2. The Chinese government also seems to have put its weight behind their EV companies which is very OP (which means "overpowered" in gaming lingo) and Tesla did not have this.

Although putting money in Nio now is probably more speculation than investment, these two points gave me a nudge.

Do not underestimate the will and ability of the Chinese government. 

This is something I have heard often enough.

Going by the global narrative, EVs will most likely continue to replace ICE vehicles too.

Don't fight the trend.

It is obvious for some time now that EVs are going to be a big part of our future but AK is myopic and could not see it until recently.

Very cham like that.




Still, even myopic AK can see why some call Nio the Tesla of China because they make very beautiful cars.

Nio isn't a copy of Tesla.

Nio strikes me as being very innovative.

A problem with EVs is that some countries like Singapore do not have enough charging stations and Nio solves this problem with battery swapping stations.

Battery swapping also takes less than 5 mins while getting an EV fully charged could take an hour or more.

It is such a simple idea but also absolutely mind blowing.

Very impressive.

Source: Nio.




Will Nio succeed as a business?

My bowling ball put on its crystal ball costume and told me that Nio would most likely succeed.

Nio has been ramping up production and deliveries.

It might still be early days but it is probably a matter of time before Nio turns profitable.

In the meantime, they just have to continue to ramp up production and deliveries while narrowing their losses.

Indeed, they have been narrowing their losses.



Anyway, now that I have become a Nio shareholder, am I less boring of an investor?

Chinese tech, Bitcoin and now Nio.

I don't recognize me anymore.

Alamak.

You blur?

I also blur.




Technically, Nio's share price has been down trending.

However, I see a positive divergence with the MACD.

This could indicate that selling pressure is weakening.

If the share price has not bottomed, a bottoming process has possibly started.



Nio could be put in the same boat as my foray into Chinese tech.

We could be seeing a bottoming process but it could be some time before we can call a bottom.

So, I remind myself to eat crusty bread with ink slowly.




Just like my investment in Chinese tech, I am limiting my exposure to Nio to 1% of my portfolio for a start.

An eventual cap at 2% or 3% of my portfolio which is what I have in mind for Bitcoin as well might be a good idea as, to be honest, Nio is still pretty speculative as an investment.

Even though Nio's share price has declined significantly from its peak which was a ridiculous price of US$67, at a price of US$17 or now US$16 a share, we are still assuming that Nio will eventually grow its profits relatively quickly when it does become profitable.

It is only prudent not to throw in everything including the kitchen sink.

With my initial investment in Nio at only about 0.3% of my portfolio, I have just gotten a foot in the door.

Throwing money at Nio is very likely more proof that AK is mental and that his condition is getting worse.

Don't play play and anyhow follow.

------------------------




Just when I was about to publish this blog, I found out that Nio will be included in the Hang Seng Tech Index on 13 June.

So, Nio will be rubbing shoulders with BYD, Xpeng and Li Auto, the other big Chinese EV companies in the index.

This means that I will have exposure to Nio through my position in Lion-OCBC Securities Hang Seng Tech ETF too.

This simplifies things for me. 

Now, I can abandon my plan to add to my position in Nio as I much prefer adding to my position in the ETF instead. 

Won't have to deal with concentration risk when Nio is still loss making. 

I have, therefore, added to my investment in the ETF again which brings it closer to 1% of my portfolio and partly because things are looking less negative chart wise to me.



So, has this Nio blog been a total waste of time then?

Oh, well, at least it got me to do more research on EV companies.

Still, I could have spent the time gaming instead. 

Tragic.




On the subject of gaming, updates to Genshin Impact have been slow due to the COVID-19 situation in China and Neverwinter has been slow to roll out their new module too.

This explains why I have been blogging more frequently but this is about to be fixed.

Genshin Impact is getting up to speed with new versions announced for end of May and also the middle of July.

Neverwinter is launching their new module, Dragonslayer, middle of June.

So, don't be surprised if I disappear from real life for a while.

Good luck and have fun!

Recently published:

1. AIMS APAC REIT: Gearing level.

2. Investment in OCBC is larger now.

Related posts:

1. Eat crusty bread with ink slowly.

2. Invest in Chinese tech.

3. Buy Bitcoin.

For those who are interested in Nio's SGX filings, see: SGX Filings by NIO.




Buying more Chinese Tech stocks today.

Friday, April 22, 2022

I published a blog a few days ago on Lion-OCBC Securities Hang Seng Tech ETF and how I was using it to gain exposure to Alibaba, Tencent and some other Chinese tech companies.

I said that I was taking it slow with the ETF and that my initial investment wasn't even 0.5% of my portfolio in market value.

Why take it slow?

Although there were some signs that the dust could be settling, technically, the downtrend was clearly still intact and low could go lower.




Buying the dips in an uptrend would be buying as Mr. Market climbs a wall of worries but in a downtrend, Mr. Market flows down a river of hope.

Getting our hopes up in a downtrend could set us up for disappointment.

Also, most of the time when I went wandering out of my circle of competence in the past, I ended up hurting myself and pretty badly sometimes too.

Although I researched the ETF and some of the Chinese tech companies it was tracking before I made the decision to put some money on the table, I was very sure I only scratched the surface.




Anyway, consistent with my plan to limit exposure to 1% of my portfolio for a start, I nibbled at the ETF earlier today at a price 10% lower than my initial investment.

With this purchase, my total exposure to the ETF stands at around 0.5% of my portfolio now.

What do I plan to do next?

I will be waiting to see if the low of 15 March would be tested in the coming weeks.

If the low should be tested, I would most likely double my investment to increase total exposure to around 1% but I might add more if I should see a positive divergence.

I would look at the momentum oscillators like the MACD and RSI to do this. 




Positive divergence means higher lows in the momentum oscillators as price retests the low or forms a lower low.

A positive divergence would give me the signal to add more to my investment. 

It would suggest that the selling pressure could be easing and that the price could see a more sustained recovery.

Still, I would take it slow because we could also see lower lows in price and higher lows in the momentum oscillators for many months to come.

In the absence of a positive divergence, I would err on the side of caution and not add too much to my investment.




Been a while since I did some technical analysis.

Hope I am not too rusty. ;p

Related post:
Investing in Alibaba and Tencent now.

Source: CNA, 22 April 22.

"China's central bank chief pledged on Friday (Apr 22) to keep policy accommodative to support the slowing economy..."




Investing in Alibaba and Tencent now.

Sunday, April 17, 2022

It is no secret that I spend a lot of my time gaming online.

I have also been buying lots of things online.

I hardly leave my home and, so, I have become even more of a hermit in recent years.

Anyway, with my lifestyle, shouldn't I be interested in Alibaba and Tencent?

Well, on top of them being Chinese, as a retiree who depends on passive income for a living, I find it harder to be interested in them.

However, I am a relatively young retiree. 

So, maybe, same same but different.

I have given it a lot of thought recently and I have decided that I should be at least a little bit interested in having some exposure to Alibaba and Tencent with their prices being where they are.

Not too much exposure though.

Just like adding some black pepper to my soup, powdering my portfolio with some Alibaba and Tencent to give it some pizzazz might not be a bad idea.





Invest in Alibaba because it is the big brother when it comes to online shopping platforms.

Invest in Tencent because it is the big brother when it comes to developing online games.

Of course, they do more than these but I am too lazy to list everything they do.

It is easy to find the information online and anyone who is interested can do a simple search.

Both Alibaba and Tencent are inexpensive for tech stocks if we look at their financial ratios.

Still, cheap could stay cheap as long as Mr. Market lacks confidence or interest in them.

I have not invested in any Chinese companies since China Minzhong donkey years ago.

China Minzhong had a PE ratio of only 3, if I remember correctly.

Chinese banks also look relatively cheap and they pay dividends too.

I think you get the idea.






In one of my blogs on Alibaba, I said:

"I waited for the dust to settle during the last bear market and for share prices to find a bottom before increasing my investment in the local banks. 

"If I were interested in investing in Alibaba, I would do the same."

See: Invest in Alibaba.

So, since I have decided that I am interested in Alibaba and Tencent, has the dust settled?

Well, it does look like their prices have "bottomed" in the middle of March, recovered and are now consolidating.

It doesn't mean that prices cannot move lower. 

We could even see a retest of the "bottom" formed in March.

I say "bottom" because we wouldn't know that it is the bottom until the downtrend reverses for sure.

Yes, if we zoom out and look at the big picture, the downtrend is still very much intact.



So, for now, we can say prices have found a floor as we cannot be sure they have bottomed.

A floor with a big plunge pool, maybe.

Plunge pool.

Ooh.

Sounds so exciting.

So exciting that some people got a heart attack.

Then, what about double or triple plunge pools?

Alamak, liddat how?





Looking at the moving averages, Alibaba and Tencent are still stuck in a downtrend.

However, if prices were to retest the lows of 15 March, we would probably see strong buying interest.

People who missed the fun of playing in the first plunge pool wouldn't want to miss the fun again.

It is just market psychology at work.

If the buying pressure is strong enough, we could then see a double bottom forming.

Of course, we wouldn't know a double bottom has formed until the trend reverses for sure.

Yes, technical analysis can be pretty irritating.




Although I am interested in Alibaba and Tencent, I am not interested in buying their stocks in HK or the USA.

Why?

AK is lazy.

AK doesn't like "mafan" stuff.

I want to keep things simple and, so, I have decided to gain exposure through an ETF in Singapore, specifically, the Lion-OCBC Securities Hang Seng Tech ETF.

I have hyperlinked the name to the ETF's website to make it easy for interested readers to find out more about the ETF.

Eh, lazy AK not so lazy after all?

No lah.

I was reading about the ETF and have yet to close the tab to the website.

So, might as well.

Don't spoil my reputation for being lazy hor. ;p





The ETF is listed on the SGX and I don't have to worry about exchange rates, having a custodian account in another country and paying a custodian fee for each counter invested.

The ETF also has the advantage of being diversified and would give me exposure to some other Chinese businesses that I know like Lenovo, JD.com and Xiaomi too.

There is a management fee as there will be some expenses but they aren't sky high. 

Yes, I am not as tight fisted with money as I once was and I feel that the fee is a small price to pay for the convenience. 

Having things easier for me promotes peace of mind which is priceless.

So, maybe, this ETF is better for my heart in more ways than one.

Source: Lion-OCBC Securities Hang Seng Tech ETF.


This ETF is about growth and does not pay a dividend.

Consistent with my asset allocation pyramid, investments which are purely for growth will together form a much smaller percentage of my entire portfolio.


S = speculative positions.



Since I don't have any investment that is purely for growth other than this ETF for now, I could possibly put more money into it if the unit price plunges again (and again.) 

Even so, the ETF should still form a very small percentage of my portfolio, all else being equal.

Maybe, just 1% of my portfolio for a start and I feel a 5% cap is probably a good idea.

As it now stands, I still have some way to go before it gets to 1%.

Yes, I being very cautious on this adventure.

Like with all adventures, no matter how well prepared we are, we must be mentally prepared for the worst while we hope for the best.

Some people compare Alibaba and Tencent to Amazon, for example, and if they are right, we could see a fivefold or even tenfold return in the next decade or two.

If this happens, then, even at 1% of my portfolio, in absolute dollar terms, it would be pretty amazing.

So, how likely is this?




To be honest, I would be quite happy if the investment sees a threefold increase in market value in the next decade.

Some might say I am being pessimistic.

Alamak, if I am pessimistic, I wouldn't have put down any money.

Long time readers might remember that I said on many occasions that we want to stay pragmatic and not be optimistic nor pessimistic.

Easy to say, of course.

Getting some exposure to Chinese tech at this point is me trying to be pragmatic.

It is so much fun to make predictions but I remind myself of some facts to stay grounded.

China is not the USA.

The USA, for example, does not care about "common prosperity."

Anyway, unless coming out of retirement and rejoining the workforce is something I am willing to consider, I shouldn't be too adventurous when it comes to investments.






This ETF is probably not a good fit for anyone who is a purist investor for income.

It is probably not a good fit for anyone who does not have the stomach for price volatility either.

Think carefully and don't anyhow hoot.

If AK can do it, so can you but should you?

References:
1. Cut loss on Alibaba or buy more?

2. Investing with some common sense.

Recently published:
Investment in QAF is larger now.




Perennial Real Estate Holdings' stock price spikes.

Wednesday, May 20, 2020

Regular readers know I have smallish investments in a few property developers and in a blog in late 2019, I said:

"Based on market value, together, they probably account for a sizable chunk of my investment portfolio."

Yesterday, I saw PREH's stock price spiked up and looked for an explanation.

I got this:

"Perennial Real Estate Holdings Limited (the "Company") notes the increase in the price of the shares of the Company on Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited in the course of trading today.

"The board of the Company (the “Board”) has been notified that certain of its substantial shareholders are reviewing the options in relation to their holdings in the Company.


"The Company understands that a decision has yet to be made by such substantial shareholders and there is no assurance that a transaction will take place.


"Accordingly, shareholders are advised to refrain from taking any action in respect of theirshares in the Company which may be prejudicial to their interests, and to exercise caution when dealing in the shares of the Company. The Company will update shareholders in due course when it becomes aware of any material developments."


Source:
PREH Voluntary Announcement.





I have added to my smallish investment in PREH in the past, averaging down my cost.

Still, this investment is suffering a paper loss.

With the spike in the stock price, the paper loss has significantly reduced.

I do not intend to add to my investments in property developers as I explained late last year.

"For a retiree like me, I feel that is enough exposure to property developers.

"For sure, I do not know when value would be unlocked and this unknown makes limiting the total investment exposure to 10% of my portfolio or lower sensible."

I also said:

"... the ability to generate a meaningful recurring income stream has always been an important consideration for me.

"It has become more so as I grow more settled into my early retirement."






If there is going to be an offer to take PREH private, I hope it is a fairly good price as PREH is trading at a huge discount to NAV.

To be realistic, I could still end up losing some money here.

Who wants to pay a higher price if they can pay a lower price?

Even though PREH is undervalued, if we are buying on the hope that value will be unlocked, it is more speculation than investment.

In speculation, being lucky is probably more important than being clever.






Related post:
AK's exposure to property developers.

Mr. Lee Kuan Yew said China could become pushy.

Saturday, January 7, 2017


"I don't want to sound apocalyptic but I don't see Taiwan as being able to resist the pull of the mainland. There will come a time when the 7th fleet cannot intervene." Mr. Lee Kuan Yew.

A long time ago in ancient China, there was a big village that sat on both banks of a river. One day, there was a big fight in the village and villagers living on the left bank said they wanted to have nothing to do with the villagers on the right bank. 

The village chief who was living on the right bank rejected this and called the newly appointed village chief on the left bank a traitor.

Then, there was a small village farther inland on the right bank that was friendly with the big village. Although the big village was broken into two and continued to quarrel, it had nothing to do with the small village. 

A case of domestic conflict, chief of the small village thought.

The small village was quite good at doing certain things and designing war chariots was one of them. Being small, the village didn't have room to test them and would send them to the left bank of the big village for testing. The chariots had to pass through the right bank of the big village to do so and for years that went on without incident.

Then, one day, the quarrel in the big village escalated. On that fateful day, the chariots being tested on the left bank were on their way back to the small village. 

It didn't matter that the late chief of the small village helped them before, the right bank which sought to isolate the left bank took hold of the chariots. The small village which needed the big village in more ways than one was helpless.

The small village then understood the saying:

穷不与富斗,富不与官斗。


In ancient China, the rich would pay money just to get a position in government. Being rich was good but being rich and powerful was better.

Got power, can be pushy. 

Got power, can be assertive.


Of course, it was not the first time our country's first Prime Minister, the late Mr. Lee Kuan Yew, got it right.

Related post:
Mr Lee Kuan Yew on the Eurozone crisis.

Tea with Solace: Mapletree Greater China Commercial Trust.

Saturday, September 20, 2014

This is a guest blog from a regular guest blogger, Solace, on a REIT in his portfolio. I always appreciate Solace's guest blogs which show how much thought he puts into every single one of his investments in the stock market. I hope you find Solace's guest blogs beneficial like I have.

So, here is Solace's 
Review of 
Mapletree Greater China Commercial Trust (MGCCT):


MGCCT got listed on March 2013. It was oversubscribed and the general feeling of the stock market at the time was bullish. I subscribed to this IPO and was one of the lucky people who received allocation of shares. I did a quick flip on the first day of IPO and realized a gain of about 11%.

The reason for selling during the first day of trading and my subsequent relook at the stock more than a year later will be discussed further.

Asset Portfolio


MGCCT consists of just two mixed use assets - Festival Walk and Gateway Plaza.





Festival Walk


A landmark territorial retail mall and lifestyle destination with an office component, comprising a seven-storey retail mall with a four-storey office tower and three underground car park levels, located in the upscale residential area of Kowloon Tong, Hong Kong.



Gateway Plaza


A premier Grade A office building with a retail atrium, consisting of two 25-storey towers connected by a three-storey retail atrium and three underground floors, located in the established and mature prime Lufthansa Area in Beijing, China.


The two properties cover a gross floor area of approximately 2.4 million square feet and the total net lettable area is about 1.9 Mil square feet.


With only 2 properties, it is easier to do an analysis but it also presented a problem of its own, Concentration Risk.


One has to take note that Festival Walk alone contributes to 75 per cent of the asset value and gross revenue of the Reit. The performance of the REIT is tied to the fortunes of the Festival Walk. As an investor we should do our homework to ensure that we can predict the earning power of the mall or we might be in for a big surprise if the earnings tumble down the road along and, with it, the share price.



Portfolio Performance thus far


Gross revenue and Net Property income has shown to be beat initial forecasts in prospectus and reported to outperform Y-O-Y comparing FY Quarters to Quarters.

Festival Walk remained fully occupied at 100% for both retail and office sectors. Shopper traffic and tenant sales in 1Q FY14/15 increased slightly at 0.5% and 0.1% respectively year on year. Of the retail leases expiring in FY14/15 at Festival Walk, 90% have been renewed or re-let with rental uplift of 21%. Weighted Average Lease Expiry (WALE) by Gross Rental Income of Festival Walk is 2.9 years. Do take note that for FY16/17, 22% of Gross rental income is due to be renew.

The committed occupancy at Gateway Plaza was 98.6% as of 30 June 2014. These committed leases represented tenants from the automobile and machinery sectors. As of 30 June 2014, 80% of the leases expiring in FY14/15 have been committed, with a significant rental uplift of 33% against preceding rental rates. WALE for Gateway Plaza it is 2.5 years.

Key Financial Indicators and Capital Management.

Gearing Ratios: 38.6%
Interest Coverage Ratio: 4.8 x
Total Debt Outstanding: HK$11,455 m
Weighted Debt Maturity: 2.7 years
Annualised DPU (cents): 6.257 cents
Distribution Policy: Semi- Annual Basis

Gearing Ratio is definitely on the high side. A silver lining would be in order to mitigate the risk of rising interest rates; more than 70% of MGCCT’s debt has been fixed for FY14/15 and FY15/16.

To ensure stability of distributions, MGCCT has hedged 90% of HK$ Distributable Income forecasted for FY14/15 and is actively monitoring the market to progressively convert RMB Distributable Income to SGD when the rates are favourable.


Management Fees Structure.

How Reits pay their manager through fees has been questioned from time to time. MGCCT is one of the first Reits to adopt DPU-based fee model rather than the traditional asset based fee structure that most S-Reits use. This is touted to be superior as most of the return from a Reits is delivered via DPU yield.

However, some would argue tying fees based on DPU may or may not necessarily better align the interests of the management and unit holders. A group will believe that fees tied to assets are more stable and makes it easier to pursue asset enhancement activities. There is also a possibility of managers using the DPU based model to focus on short term gain through increase use of gearing to boost DPU, but set itself up for disaster over the long term.

There is no evident of MGCCT behaving this way currently. I do not have opinion on this matter as I believe no fee structure is fool proof. Concentrating on the track records of the manager seems to be a wiser choice.

Solace's Recent Actions.

At Listing Date of 7 March 2013, issue price was $0.93 (NAV/unit $0.91). It had a projected dividend yield of 5.6% for FY 13/14 and 6.1% for FY 14/15. I sold the shares when the price reached $1.04. Translates to about 11.8% gain.

At the price, I felt that it makes sense to cash in. It was above NAV, the projected yield of 5.6% didn’t justify the concentration risk and high gearing in my opinion. I needed to have bigger safety margins and want to see that the management can achieve its DPU while paying close attention to the performance of Festival Walk.

When prices break below 90 cents towards the end of last year, I decide to the put the Reits back in my watch list. Also during the waiting period, it has shown that the Mapletree pedigree had delivered again with reports of DPU and NPI beating forecasts in prospectus.

It was a game of waiting patiently to see if the price would drop to a level where the dividend yield was more acceptable to me with the concentration risk in mind.

I pick up some shares in at prices from 83 cents to 85 cents a unit. Average entry is about 84 cents. This gives me a dividend yield of about 7.5% which is more acceptable to me. It was revealed that some of the senior managements also bought shares in recent months at $0.805 and $0.80. It is always a plus point if one can load up at about the same price as the board of directors.

If the share price declines to a level close to dividend yield 8% again, I might be interested to increase exposure again.

Read some of Solace's other guest blogs:
1. Frasers Centrepoint Limited (FCL).
2. King Wan Corp. Ltd.
3. Common Sense Investing.


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