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Showing posts with label CRCT. Show all posts
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Buy CLCT? AA REIT and IREITs' rights issues OTW.

Thursday, June 1, 2023

For readers who who are not subscribed to my YouTube channel or who simply prefer reading blogs to watching videos, I produced 2 videos recently and these are the transcripts.
------------
This was a comment from a reader yesterday.

1. For Capitaland China Trust, do you think sentiments towards China are overly pessimistic?

Hence, could the Trust be trading at a fair price 
now?

2. I am sure you saw the right issue on AIMS APAC Real Estate Investment Trust.

Any comment on that?

AK had this to say about China.

For CapitaLand China Trust, I am just holding on to what I have now.

After seeing how China handled the COVID-19 pandemic and also what they did to their biggest tech companies, I don't really know how to read investments in China now.

Another reader said this about Capitaland China Trust.

Hard to wait for the banks when REITs like Capitaland China Trust kept enticing me with lower and lower prices. How like that?



AK said to the reader.

I have been holding on to my position in Capitaland China Trust and not done any buying or selling.

I am not sure as I am more wary of policy risks in China than anything else right now.

Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan, said this in a recent interview.

China is a far more complex situation now.

He was mostly referring to policy risks, but he was also concerned about geopolitical risks.

Too much uncertainty caused by the Chinese government.

We can also see that Chinese economic recovery has been weak and, to be honest, I agree that much of it has been self-inflicted.

It is not hard to understand that I would rather put more money into investments I have less to worry about.

AK is becoming timid with age.



I had this to say about AIMS APAC real estate investment trust.

The proposed rights issue is relatively small, but it is necessary so that the REIT does not take on more debt to grow organically.

The sponsor has also thrown its weight behind the exercise.

The sponsor, which holds about 75 million units, or about 10% of the total units in the real estate investment trust, has provided an irrevocable undertaking to the manager and the joint bookrunners and underwriters, which include DBS Bank.

The sponsor will accept, subscribe and pay in full for its total provisional allotment of the new units under the preferential offering.

They will also make applications for the number of excess new units under the preferential offering which are not taken up by other unitholders.

Hence, demonstrating their confidence in the real estate investment trust.



The exercise will raise around $100 million through the private placement and preferential offering.

Private placement is to place about 56 million to 58 million units at an issue price of about $1.21 to $1.25 per unit to raise proceeds of $70 million.

The non-renounceable preferential offering or rights issue will raise another $30 million.

This is through the issuance of about 25 million new units to existing eligible unitholders at about $1.19 to $1.23 per new unit.

Existing unitholders will be eligible to an advanced distribution of between 1.7 cents to 1.9 cents per unit.

This would be for the months of April and May.

The record date to be entitled to the advanced distribution and the eligibility to participate in the preferential offering is at 5pm on June 9.



The funds raised will help unlock greater value organically through active enhancement and re-development strategy.

It will also help to secure growth opportunities through targeted acquisitions.

I rather like rights issues which raise money in order to generate more income for the investors.

This is a relatively small rights issue and, therefore, not too demanding.

If AK can talk to himself, so can you!

(Continue scrolling down to read about IREIT Global and its rights issue.)

Reference:
REITs and rights issues.



I have said before that I rather like rights issues if the money raised is used to generate more income for investors.

In the latest fund raising exercise by IREIT Global, this seems to be the case.

They are proposing to acquire 17 retail parks in France.

A strong reason to invest in these assets is that this retail format will continue to outperform in the context of global inflation partly caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

"The popularity of hard discounters, discounters and outlet stores in France has risen exponentially in recent years.

"Retail Parks, an Out-of-Town asset class, have been resilient through the COVID-19 pandemic due to their accessibility, open-air format, wide range of available spaces, parking facilities, manageable operational cost, value-for-money brands and for some retailers, omni-channel experiences."



These 17 retail parks are leased to B and M Group, a European discount retailer listed on the London Stock Exchange with a market cap of about 4.7 billion Sterling Pounds.

They have been occupying these assets since 2005 on average.

There is a Weighted Average Lease Expiry of 6.8 years but there is an option for lease break 4.6 years from now.

A combination of competitive rents due to out-of-town locations and a resilient retail model which is discount retailing suggests to me that this is a good investment.

Of course, all investments are good investments at the right price.

The asking price is approximately $112 million.

This gives approximately 1.7% discount to the average of the two independent valuations of approximately $114.1 million.

The price is very close to valuation.

Although this might suggest that we are not getting a fantastic deal, it also suggests that this kind of properties is probably in high demand.

The seller isn't desperate to sell.



However, similar to the purchase of Woolworth's HQ in Australia by AIMS APAC real estate investment trust, I like that these 17 properties in France have excess plot ratios which could be developed for more rental income in future.

I would take this potential into consideration since we should always have a long term perspective when investing in good income producing properties.

So, apart from rental escalation being pegged to inflation, this could be another way to extract more income from the assets.

When we take into consideration that new developments of such assets are being restricted in future due to new French regulations, these assets will become even more valuable in future.



This reminds me of Saizen REIT when its properties were valued at under replacement cost.

No one in his right mind would construct a new building when buying an old one would be much cheaper, and would give similar or higher rental yields.

So, the assets Saizen REIT was holding were undervalued.

In the case of out-of-town assets in France, new ones are apparently not allowed by law.

With the future in mind, we could make the case that these assets could be undervalued.

Of course, having these properties in the portfolio would reduce concentration risk which has been a major pain point for many investors forever.

I don't really care for the other advantages put forth by the management.



The next thing I want to know is how the acquisition is going to be funded and whether it is going to be yield accretive.

Apparently, it is going to be yield accretive.

Pro forma adjusted FY2022 accretion of 2.0% was computed based on audited FY2022.

This is with the assumption that Darmstadt Campus is 100% vacant for FY2022 from 1 January 2022 with nil revenue but with operating expenses.

OK, how much do investors have to pay?

Cost of properties = $112 million.

Expenses related to purchase = $20 million.

Now, I know how people paying ABSD in Singapore feel.

The deal will be funded by the following.

1. A non-renounceable underwritten preferential offering of new Units to existing Unitholders on a pro rata basis or a rights issue.

2. External bank borrowings.

3. Borrowings from Tikehau Capital.



Both Tikehau Capital and City Developments Limited, the joint sponsors, and the manager, will subscribe in full their allotment in the rights issue.

They will also subscribe to excess units which other investors do not take up, such that their aggregate subscriptions would amount to a maximum of $40 million.

IREIT Global has a market capitalization of around $550 million.

As the sponsors jointly hold about 50% of the total units issued, without further information, I can only hazard a guess that we would see around 10% increase in the number of units issued.

We could assume that approximately 168 million new Preferential Offering Units might be issued at an illustrative issue price of 45 cents per Preferential Offering Unit.

This could raise gross proceeds of approximately $75 million.

So, if we like this proposed investment in French retail parks, we have to be ready to increase our investment in the real estate investment trust by about 10% through the rights issue.

If AK can talk to himself, so can you.

Reference:
IREIT Global presentation.

CLCT: Staying defensive and Chinese banks?

Sunday, October 23, 2022

I produced a video recently for my YouTube channel which shared my response to a reader's question on investing in Capitaland China Trust.

In case readers who do not follow my YouTube channel are interested, here is the video:





That video has unexpectedly led to an interesting exchange with another reader and for the benefit of readers who are not subscribed to my YouTube channel, I am sharing it here:

Reader says:

Hihi AK, so your stance on CLCT has never changed ya?

AK says:

I still think CLCT will do well once things normalize. 

How long is that going to take? 

Xi is being pretty stubborn. 

I don't think China will move away from the zero COVID policy anytime soon. 

So, not in a hurry to add. 

Will wait and see.




Reader says:

thanks for ur reply. i cashed out my SSB to divert to CLCT. but now i still hesitating when to enter CLCT. below 0.80 ah? hahaha..

AK says:

China is getting very hard to read. 

On the REIT level, I suspect that the RMB is going to stay weak and it could impact gearing level and DPU and it is not the only thing that is giving me pause. 

It would be interesting to see if CLCT has to give rental support to tenants or not too. 

Greater clarity needed. 

I will (try to) stay defensive and continue to divert funds whenever available to bank stocks, SSB and T-bills.




Reader says:

sg bank stocks exp leh…. China Bank stocks on HKSE ok? 🤭

AK says:

Eh. I don't invest outside of the Singapore Stock Exchange. 

So, I am not a good person to answer that question. 

Singapore banks will benefit from rising interest rates. 

I don't think the Chinese banks have the same tailwind. 

Also, if I were to invest in Chinese banks, I would ask how exposed are they to the likes of Evergrande? 

I feel that to invest in the Chinese banks is really to invest in the Chinese government. 

Why would they be trading at such low PE ratios otherwise? ;p




Readers who are interested in my YouTube channel, here is the link: 





Frasers Logistics Trust: Another largest investment.

Monday, May 30, 2022

This is just a quick update on my investment in Frasers Logistics Trust.

I didn't do anything to my investment in Frasers Logistics Trust since I got in at 92.5c a unit in January 2017.

At least I don't remember having done anything to it since then.

Well, I must correct myself because after so many years, I finally did something to it.

As one of my larger smaller investments for a long time, I didn't have to make a large purchase for it to join the ranks of my largest investments.

In case you don't already know, I consider any position that has a market value of $100,000 or more in my portfolio as large.

The numbers look pretty good.



(Presentation: May 2022.)




I don't usually like paying a premium to NAV when it comes to REITs.

However, when I first invested in Frasers Logistics Trust in 2017, I paid a premium of around 6% to its NAV then, if I remember correctly.

At that time, I decided that it was a price I was willing to pay for geographical diversification and also to have greater exposure to freehold assets.

So, increasing exposure last week to Frasers Logistics Trust when it was trading very close to or at its NAV was more palatable.

I will keep a lookout for a chance to add to my investment in Frasers Logistics Trust at under $1.20 a unit.

That means roughly a 10% decline in unit price from here.

Technically, it is a definite possibility as the momentum oscillators are not encouraging.




Fundamentally, if risk free rate continues to go up, we could see unit prices of REITs like Frasers Logistics Trust declining as investors might demand from them a high distribution yield.

Although buying at a discount to NAV would make me quite happy, I remind myself that NAV could decline as we could see cap rate expansion taking place if risk free rate continues to go up.

Don't throw in everything including the kitchen sink because peace of mind is priceless.

Recently published:
Capitaland China Trust.

Related post:
FLT and CRCT.



Capitaland China Trust: Another largest investment?

Sunday, May 29, 2022

I have always liked industrial S-REITs.


Long time readers would remember blogs like this:

Office REITs versus Industrial REITs.

Industrial REITs having much higher distribution yields made the decision to invest heavily in them easier too.

We will always need all kinds of warehouses and with e-commerce being so entrenched, they are even more in demand.

Business parks fit a niche demand for where office space in the CBD is considered too expensive.




Together with all other types of industrial buildings, they are pretty difficult to disrupt as a class.

In fact, they are more likely to be disrupters or friends of disrupters than victims of disruption.

Of course, on hindsight, we also see how resilient industrial S-REITs can be in a pandemic setting.

I have the following in my portfolio:

1. AIMS APAC REIT
2. Sabana REIT
3. Frasers Logistics Trust
4. Capitaland China Trust

Yes, it is a bit strange to see Capitaland China Trust in this list because it was Capitaland Retail China Trust before.

Of course, although it has dropped the word "retail" from its name, it still has shopping centers in its portfolio.

It is more of a hybrid now.


Source: Presentation 26 April 2022


I have been adding to Capitaland China Trust at around $1.10 a unit.

I don't think that the lockdowns in China can go on forever.

So, the pessimism will lift at some point.




The initial plan was to have the investment similar in size to my investment in Frasers Logistics Trust which is one of my larger smaller investments.

However, I am now thinking of making my investment in Capitaland China Trust similar in size to my investment in Sabana REIT which is one of my largest investments albeit the smallest in the club.

Maybe, I am feeling a little sorry for Sabana REIT being all alone in the lowest bracket in my list of largest investments.

Capitaland China Trust is trading at a big discount to NAV.

Its NAV is about $1.50 a unit.

Capitaland China Trust also offers a relatively high distribution yield.





If a DPU of 9c continues to be paid, at $1.10 a unit, that is a distribution yield of almost 8.2% which sufficiently compensates for any negative vibes Mr. Market might have.

Yes, I think that we will look back at this episode in history as just negative vibes.

It is like how Mr. Market was feeling very negative about Sabana REIT when ESR REIT made the low ball takeover offer.

It was because of that episode that I was able to accumulate aggressively at around 35 cents a share which brought my investment in Sabana REIT back into my list of largest investments at the end of 2020.

The distribution yield for that investment based on my cost is almost 9%.

Pulling another rabbit out of the hat with Capitaland China Trust, perhaps?

Your guess is as good as mine, of course.





Reallocate as interest rate rises in a slowing economy.

Wednesday, May 11, 2022

Interest rate is rising.

PM Lee recently warned of a possible recession in the quarters ahead.

Put rising interest rate and a slowing economy together, we get a rather gloomy picture.

The evil which is inflation is preferred to the evil which is deflation.

Although inflation is the lesser evil, it isn't as benign when it is heightened which is what we are seeing now in the world.

We can reduce inflationary pressure either by increasing supply of goods and services which are in demand or tempering demand for such goods and services.

As it is difficult to increase supply right away, central banks are trying to tame inflation by increasing interest rate in an effort to reduce demand.




Increasing interest rate increases the cost of debt.

Credit is the lifeblood of commerce and most businesses are leveraged to some degree.

If the economy is healthy, businesses can pass on the higher cost of doing business to their customers and higher finance expense that comes from higher interest rates are naturally a part of such cost.

However, it becomes more difficult for many businesses to pass on such higher costs to customers if the economy is suffering from malaise.

Heightened inflation, rapidly increasing interest rates and low economic growth is not a good mix.

In such a situation, even very strong companies will not be spared a slowdown as most entities would be less ready to part with their money.





Already, we see some big name MNCs both in the old and new economies warning of very difficult quarters ahead.

Only the fittest will survive but even they might not emerge unscathed from such a toxic cocktail.

As an investor for income, I believe that businesses which are able and willing to pay a meaningful dividend should be favored.

To make sure that dividends are sustainable, these businesses should also provide necessary goods and services and have stronger balance sheets.

They too will take a few punches during hard times but they should be able to roll with the punches.

I think staying invested is still the way to go but, like I said, I should mostly be invested in businesses which are able and willing to pay dividends even during hard times.

So, with this in mind, I have taken a hard look at my largest investments since they impact the performance of my portfolio the most.




The strategy to increase my investments in DBS, OCBC and UOB during the COVID-19 induced bear market has turned out well and sticking with this strategy makes sense to me especially with interest rate rising.

I am also interested in increasing my investments in ComfortDelgro and CLCT on weakness as they seemed to have lagged in price recovery while their businesses look more attractive to me in recent times but for different reasons.

I am leaning more towards ComfortDelgro which has a stronger balance sheet and also because looking at the numbers which have improved, there is a fairly good chance that future dividends will be higher and could even go back to pre-pandemic levels.

CLCT's plan is to increase the proportion of new economy assets in their portfolio and I foresee more fund raising in the future.

So, I will increase my investment in CLCT slowly and not bulk up in a hurry.




REITs are required to pay out at least 90% of their operating cash flow to investors to enjoy tax benefits and this is a source of comfort to me.

The REITs in my portfolio are rather conservative when it comes to debt and in the case of IREIT Global, some of their rental income is linked to the German consumer price index and higher inflation could see a greater increase in income.

In my list of largest investments, the only entity which did not pay a dividend during the last bear market was Centurion Corporation.

Amongst my largest investments, Centurion Corporation also has the weakest balance sheet apart from Wilmar International.

However, Wilmar International is in the business of food production and distribution which, in my opinion, is recession proof. 

Given their size and market dominance, they should be able to charge higher prices.

Wilmar also has good options available to unlock value for shareholders and they were paying dividends even during the pandemic.




I increased my investment in Centurion Corporation as Singapore decided to live with COVID-19.

For those who are interested in my thoughts on the matter, read:

1Q 2022 passive income.

In an environment of rapidly increasing interest rate and slowing economy, however, with a rather weak balance sheet, it could be harder for Centurion Corporation to bring home the bacon.

In my original blog on why I invested in Centurion Corporation, I crunched some numbers on how rising interest rate could impact Centurion Corporation's interest cover ratio.

For those who are interested, read:

Added Centurion Corp to portfolio.

Of course, if they are able to increase asking price per bed meaningfully to balance the increase in the cost of debt, then, they should be OK.

Although they would be able to do so easily in a healthy economy, it might not be so easy during times of economic malaise.




Wait, didn't Centurion Corporation do quite well even when the economy was unhealthy?

Yes, they did but they didn't have to deal with rapidly increasing interest rates.

I don't know everything and I might be missing a few things here.

So, I have decided to only reduce my exposure to Centurion Corporation and not go to zero.

As my total passive income held up quite well during the two years when Centurion Corporation suspended dividend payouts, I doubt reducing my investment would have any meaningful impact in terms of passive income generation which makes this decision an easier one for me.

Although Centurion Corporation still looks undervalued to me as it trades at a huge discount to NAV, to be honest, this discount could reduce as valuation of their assets could take a hit.




It would be interesting to see how the management navigates the challenges ahead and how they might unlock value for shareholders.

They are trying to sell some assets in the USA now which if successful should help in reducing leverage and unlocking value.

To this end, I believe they should ramp up their effort and sell more assets.

Like Phua Chu Kang said at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, "Things different already."

In the grand scheme of things, this is a relatively minor shift of resources but because I am more inactive than active as an investor for income, it might seem like a big event.

Remember, mentally unstable AK is just talking to himself, as usual.

Have a plan, your own plan.

Recently published:
Avoid this in a rising interest rate environment.

Related posts:

1. Rising interest rate flashback... 

2. Largest investments 1Q 2022.

3. Investing with peace of mind.




3Q 2019 passive income: Numbers.

Tuesday, October 1, 2019

It has been a while since my last blog and I hope everyone is doing well.

So, now that 3Q 2019 has ended, an update on what I did in the quarter is due.

Well, in terms of my investments, apart from collecting dividends, regular readers know that I sold quite a big chunk of my portfolio earlier in July.

See:
Sell into the rally...

And for what it was worth, I also provided an update on the largest investments in my portfolio.

See:
Largest investments...






Then, after that, I was mostly just adventuring in Neverwinter and taking it easy in RL (which stands for "real life"), collecting dividends from my RL investments.

Although readers should hopefully be used to the rather long breaks from blogging I have been taking as I spend more time on other activities, I would like to reiterate that this is the new normal.

If you leave comments in my blog and expect a timely response, you could and very likely be disappointed.







In fact, for the whole month of October, Neverwinter will be running the Neverember Recruitment Event which will reward the leveling of any new character created during the event.

This is not only a perfect opportunity for anyone who wants to give Neverwinter a try, it is also great for veterans to create new characters (up to a maximum of two) to get their hands on the rewards which are very generous, rewards which would have cost RL money to buy otherwise.

The Level Cap in Neverwinter is 80 but to get all the rewards from the event, we only have to hit Level 59, if I understand the event correctly.


So, I will be extra busy in Neverwinter as I will level two new characters to Level 59 and still be adventuring with the three Level 80 characters I have now.

Neverwinter is free to play (F2P) and lots of fun for anyone who enjoys the High Fantasy genre and is "giam siap" (not offering a translation for this) like AK.

Can barely see the word "Shift" and the letter "W" on my keyboard. 
Bad AK! Bad AK! ;-p









Anyway, total passive income from my investments in REITs and non-REITs in 3Q 2019:

S$ 31,789.91

This amount would have been much higher if I did not reduce my investments and rather significantly too in SingTel, Wilmar and ComfortDelgro back in July.

I say this as a matter of fact to explain why the amount is smaller than what some might be expecting and not because I regret my decision to realise gains, reducing investment exposure pretty significantly in the process.

After all, the capital gains from reducing exposure to the businesses mentioned were much more than what I would have received from them in dividends otherwise.








Also, it is almost never a bad thing to have more cash as it gives us options which include the ability to pounce on opportunities when they present themselves.

As it turned out, opportunities knocked in the following months as stock prices experienced a correction.

I added to my investments in a few businesses such as:

1. DBS

2. OCBC


3. ComfortDelgro (CDG)

The list doesn't end here, of course. 






As Centurion's stock price and Accordia Golf Trust's (AGT) unit price languished, I also added to my investments in these entities as my investment theses are unchanged.

I believe that they are undervalued and it doesn't matter to me that if their share or unit price continue to move sideways as long as they keep generating meaningful income for me.


In 3Q 2019, I also took part in CRCT's rights issue, taking up my entitlement and applying for excess rights at $1.44 a unit.

This bumps up my investment in the REIT but not by much as it is a relatively small rights issue.

Finally, I substantially increased my investment in IREIT Global as its unit price declined rather significantly.





I shall not explain my decisions to increase my investments in DBS, OCBC, CDG, Centurion or AGT again.

Anyone who is interested to find out more or in having a refresher can refer to my earlier blogs on these entities.

As for CRCT, I blogged about why I thought it was a well run REIT with a relatively attractive yield before.

See:
CRCT added in Jan 2017.

My view has not changed and there is no reason why I wouldn't take part in its relatively small rights issue to help expand its AUM.





I have also blogged about IREIT Global before and why I avoided its IPO.

This was back in 2015.

See:
IREIT: What is a more realistic distribution yield?



Of course, all investments are good at the right price and I invested in IREIT later on when its unit price declined sharply.

Adding to my investment in IREIT Global in 3Q 2019 meant paying a higher price than what I paid before, however.






Still, I chose to increase my investment in IREIT Global and I will share the reasons why in my next blog as this blog has become a bit too long.

I will try to do this within the next 24 hours because if I don't, I fear I might not do it once I seriously start to power up my two new characters in Neverwinter.

Yes, I know.

Bad AK! Bad AK!




For now, I will say that I am reasonably confident that all that I did to my investment portfolio in 3Q 2019 will better reward me in future.

What I did was consistent with my belief that investing for income is enriching and, so far, it has been the case for me.

Remember, if we do the right thing, everyone's life can be and should be better.

Investing for income can help us achieve financial security and, eventually, financial freedom.

If AK can do it, so can you!




You might also want to read:
1. Retirement adequacy 101.
2. Start with a plan to retire early.

Online shopping, retail S-REITs and Starhill Global REIT.

Monday, March 20, 2017


Online shopping is gaining strength rapidly and even an IT dinosaur like AK buys stuff online. From my own experience, I would say that online shopping is attractive because of two factors:

1. Convenience. Delivered to my home with either very competitively priced delivery fee or free delivery.

2. Cheaper. For the same item, I have saved as much as 30% buying online than buying in a brick and mortar shop.





So, if a shop in a mall is selling stuff that could be found online, unless the mall is conveniently located and unless they are priced competitively, that shop is going the way of the Dodo. 

It is just a matter of time.

Shopping malls must fill themselves more with shops that offer goods and services which cannot be found online for one reason or another. 

After all, there are things which online shops cannot do or cannot do well.

Therefore, despite the growing reach of online vendors, I believe that some shopping malls will continue to do reasonably well and some readers might remember that I have been waiting to invest in CapitaMall Trust (CMT). 

However, I have not been able to get in at a price which I am comfortable with because Mr. Market likes pedigree and, just like Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT), even now, CMT is trading at around its Net Asset Value (NAV) and both are offering very similar distribution yields in the mid 5%.




REITs, unlike companies, pay out most of their cash flow from operations to their investors. 

They do not pay dividends from their earnings. 

They distribute income. 

They do not have retained earnings. 

One way REITs grow, without placing too much demand on shareholders (think rights issue) or diluting minority shareholders (think private placements) is to ensure that there is genuine growth in the value of their assets which would in turn give them more leeway to fund more growth through using debt. 

It is a virtuous cycle, one that hinges on the growing value of assets. I think we can agree that CMT and FCT have done rather well in this area.




However, given the uncertain retail environment for some time now, although well run, I would like to invest in CMT and FCT at a meaningful discount to NAV and if they offered higher distribution yields.

Asset values in good times would appreciate but in bad times they could come under pressure. 

So, buying at a discount to NAV makes sense to me unless we feel that asset values can only go up and never go down.

Although I have been mostly looking at CMT, I have also looked at FCT and Starhill Global REIT (SGR).




I like CMT and FCT. I am more familiar with their malls. However, I am not comfortable with getting in at current prices. 

I am not as familiar with SGR's malls (i.e. Wisma Atria and Ngee Ann City) and not all their malls are in Singapore which, by the way, is a good thing. 

However, trading at a meaningful discount to NAV and offering a distribution yield closer to 7%, to me, SGR is priced more attractively.

There are a few more factors which pushed me towards investing in SGR:

1. More than a third of SGR is owned by the sponsor, YTL Group. 


This helps to ensure a greater degree of alignment of interest with minority unit holders.

2. The management is looking to sell the REIT's Chinese and Japanese assets to concentrate on what they consider the REIT's core markets of Singapore, Australia and Malaysia


Now, reducing concentration risk is good but having a handful of assets in China and Japan probably isn't beneficial and would, in fact, add disproportionately to operating costs.

3. The relative weakness in SGR's performance is probably going to be temporary because of redevelopment works in an asset in Australia and a delay in a new tenant moving into its asset in China.





Looking at SGR's DPU for the last quarter, annual DPU, all else remaining equal is about 5c which gives us a 6.85% distribution yield based on 73c per unit. 

However, if there were to be more hiccups, income could be affected negatively and I am knocking off 5% from DPU to 4.75c to take this into consideration. 6.5% distribution yield is good enough for me while I wait for an improvement in performance.

I am not buying into SGR because I think its outlook is fantastic. For sure, they will face challenges.

I am buying into SGR because, taking advantage of its recent price weakness, I feel that there is some margin of safety.




SGR is an investment that is likely to generate a fairly good yield for the price that I paid.

Related posts:
1. CRCT added to my portfolio.

2. CMT and when am I nibbing?

Frasers L&I Trust and CapitaLand Retail China Trust added in January 2017.

Thursday, February 2, 2017


As REITs will always be relevant to the income investor, I have been thinking of how best to increase my investment in REITs again in an environment of increasing interest rates and I decided I should choose REITs which have a better plan or chance to improve their income.

Hedging interest rate risk is very well and good but this only kicks the can down the road because sooner or later, higher interest rates will hit home. 




So, having the ability to increase income is still key as to whether a REIT will do well with interest rates increasing over time.

Very importantly, I also decided that it is probably a good idea to diversify more geographically and to reduce my portfolio's reliance on Singapore. 

Remember I said this in a recent blog post on Sabana REIT?
However, things will get even more challenging for REITs from here on with interest rates expected to rise further. Industrial REITs here are facing an oversupply of space and a malaise in demand.  (Source: History with Sabana REIT and current thoughts.)





So, although I like AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT (AA REIT), for example, last month, I decided to initiate a position at 92.5c a unit in Frasers L&I Trust (FLT) which owns logistics and industrial properties in Australia.



The IPO price was 89c a unit and, to be honest, I was waiting for the price to come down from there before buying some. 

This was because although there are many things to like about FLT, the distribution yield was on the low side for an industrial REIT. 

Unfortunately, the decline I had hoped for did not happen.




So, although FLT's distribution yield of  7+% doesn't seem very attractive when compared to AA REIT's 8+%, I decided that there are enough positive factors such as relatively low gearing and a portfolio of mostly freehold properties in Australia for me to invest in the REIT.


(30 November 2016)
Of course, regular readers would know that although AA REIT has been a fantastic investment for income for me and is likely to remain decent, apart from the challenging leasing situation in Singapore, I am also unwilling to add to my already rather significant investment in the REIT.





Other than FLT, I have another new investment in my portfolio. 

Again, this has a portfolio of real estate outside of Singapore.

Some readers might remember that I have been waiting for a chance to get into CapitaMall Trust (CMT). 

I remember I spent quite a bit of time blogging about it once upon a time: here.




However, from then till now, CMT's unit price did not decline enough to be persuasive, I feel. 

Translation: AK is "giam siap" and wants to buy at a much lower price. 

What? 

You need a translation for "giam siap"? 

I blur.

After much consideration, I accepted the offer from Mr. Market to invest in Capita Retail China Trust (CRCT) instead, paying $1.40 a unit. 


Just a few months ago in September 2016, CRCT hit a high of $1.66 a unit. 




Why the big decline in unit price? 

It was probably due to a 10.6% drop in DPU, year on year. 

A new tax in Beijing and a weaker RMB were the reasons. NAV also declined by almost 12% to $1.56 per unit.

Offering a higher yield than CMT even now and having ownership of a portfolio of shopping malls in a market with arguably more room for growth (in terms of organised retail activity) than Singapore's, I decided CRCT is probably worth investing in. 




After all, a 10.6% decline in DPU doesn't warrant an almost 15.6% decline in unit price unless we are expecting a more severe decline in DPU. 

In fact, I think that DPU should recover somewhat as CRCT's non-Beijing malls could pick up the slack over the course of the year.

Having said this, I am reminded of a longer term risk, that land lease in China is typically 50 years and that could explain why Mr. Market demands a higher distribution yield for a retail REIT in China compared to one in Singapore. 





I do not know if, like in Hong Kong, land lease could be renewed easily. This is one risk to bear in mind if we choose to invest in CRCT.
(September 2016.)
Another risk we should be aware of is financial in nature. CRCT's loans are mostly S$ loans but its income and valuations are in RMB. 

This arrangement is similar to Lippo Malls' and I blogged about it before (See blog: here). 

A decline in RMB against the S$ could see both gearing and interest expense affected in a bad way.




Although I have said that CRCT would likely see income increasing over time, this is going to be a gradual process. 

So, to be prudent, I am keeping my investment in CRCT relatively small.



CRCT's 4Q2016 results.
As CRCT distributes income half yearly, I will be receiving DPU of 2.37c (4Q2016) and 2.36c (3Q2016) for a total of 4.73c in March. 

Annualising the DPU gives me a distribution yield of 6.75%.



Again, why did I choose to invest in FLT and CRCT in an environment of rising interest rate which would impact their cost of doing business eventually? 

You blur? 

I also blur.




Xizhimen Beijing. Just next to the train station.


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