Reallocate as interest rate rises in a slowing economy.

Interest rate is rising.

PM Lee recently warned of a possible recession in the quarters ahead.

Put rising interest rate and a slowing economy together, we get a rather gloomy picture.

The evil which is inflation is preferred to the evil which is deflation.

Although inflation is the lesser evil, it isn't as benign when it is heightened which is what we are seeing now in the world.

We can reduce inflationary pressure either by increasing supply of goods and services which are in demand or tempering demand for such goods and services.

As it is difficult to increase supply right away, central banks are trying to tame inflation by increasing interest rate in an effort to reduce demand.

Increasing interest rate increases the cost of debt.

Credit is the lifeblood of commerce and most businesses are leveraged to some degree.

If the economy is healthy, businesses can pass on the higher cost of doing business to their customers and higher finance expense that comes from higher interest rates are naturally a part of such cost.

However, it becomes more difficult for many businesses to pass on such higher costs to customers if the economy is suffering from malaise.

Heightened inflation, rapidly increasing interest rates and low economic growth is not a good mix.

In such a situation, even very strong companies will not be spared a slowdown as most entities would be less ready to part with their money.

Already, we see some big name MNCs both in the old and new economies warning of very difficult quarters ahead.

Only the fittest will survive but even they might not emerge unscathed from such a toxic cocktail.

As an investor for income, I believe that businesses which are able and willing to pay a meaningful dividend should be favored.

To make sure that dividends are sustainable, these businesses should also provide necessary goods and services and have stronger balance sheets.

They too will take a few punches during hard times but they should be able to roll with the punches.

I think staying invested is still the way to go but, like I said, I should mostly be invested in businesses which are able and willing to pay dividends even during hard times.

So, with this in mind, I have taken a hard look at my largest investments since they impact the performance of my portfolio the most.

The strategy to increase my investments in DBS, OCBC and UOB during the COVID-19 induced bear market has turned out well and sticking with this strategy makes sense to me especially with interest rate rising.

I am also interested in increasing my investments in ComfortDelgro and CLCT on weakness as they seemed to have lagged in price recovery while their businesses look more attractive to me in recent times but for different reasons.

I am leaning more towards ComfortDelgro which has a stronger balance sheet and also because looking at the numbers which have improved, there is a fairly good chance that future dividends will be higher and could even go back to pre-pandemic levels.

CLCT's plan is to increase the proportion of new economy assets in their portfolio and I foresee more fund raising in the future.

So, I will increase my investment in CLCT slowly and not bulk up in a hurry.

REITs are required to pay out at least 90% of their operating cash flow to investors to enjoy tax benefits and this is a source of comfort to me.

The REITs in my portfolio are rather conservative when it comes to debt and in the case of IREIT Global, some of their rental income is linked to the German consumer price index and higher inflation could see a greater increase in income.

In my list of largest investments, the only entity which did not pay a dividend during the last bear market was Centurion Corporation.

Amongst my largest investments, Centurion Corporation also has the weakest balance sheet apart from Wilmar International.

However, Wilmar International is in the business of food production and distribution which, in my opinion, is recession proof. 

Given their size and market dominance, they should be able to charge higher prices.

Wilmar also has good options available to unlock value for shareholders and they were paying dividends even during the pandemic.

I increased my investment in Centurion Corporation as Singapore decided to live with COVID-19.

For those who are interested in my thoughts on the matter, read:

1Q 2022 passive income.

In an environment of rapidly increasing interest rate and slowing economy, however, with a rather weak balance sheet, it could be harder for Centurion Corporation to bring home the bacon.

In my original blog on why I invested in Centurion Corporation, I crunched some numbers on how rising interest rate could impact Centurion Corporation's interest cover ratio.

For those who are interested, read:

Added Centurion Corp to portfolio.

Of course, if they are able to increase asking price per bed meaningfully to balance the increase in the cost of debt, then, they should be OK.

Although they would be able to do so easily in a healthy economy, it might not be so easy during times of economic malaise.

Wait, didn't Centurion Corporation do quite well even when the economy was unhealthy?

Yes, they did but they didn't have to deal with rapidly increasing interest rates.

I don't know everything and I might be missing a few things here.

So, I have decided to only reduce my exposure to Centurion Corporation and not go to zero.

As my total passive income held up quite well during the two years when Centurion Corporation suspended dividend payouts, I doubt reducing my investment would have any meaningful impact in terms of passive income generation which makes this decision an easier one for me.

Although Centurion Corporation still looks undervalued to me as it trades at a huge discount to NAV, to be honest, this discount could reduce as valuation of their assets could take a hit.

It would be interesting to see how the management navigates the challenges ahead and how they might unlock value for shareholders.

They are trying to sell some assets in the USA now which if successful should help in reducing leverage and unlocking value.

To this end, I believe they should ramp up their effort and sell more assets.

Like Phua Chu Kang said at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, "Things different already."

In the grand scheme of things, this is a relatively minor shift of resources but because I am more inactive than active as an investor for income, it might seem like a big event.

Remember, mentally unstable AK is just talking to himself, as usual.

Have a plan, your own plan.

Recently published:
Avoid this in a rising interest rate environment.

Related posts:

1. Rising interest rate flashback... 

2. Largest investments 1Q 2022.

3. Investing with peace of mind.