Ever since the CPFB introduced a colorful pie chart of our CPF savings a few years ago, I would look forward to mine every year like a teena...
Past blog posts now load week by week. The old style created a problem for some as the system would load 50 blog posts each time. Hope the new style is better. Search archives in box below.
This is the transcript of a YouTube video I produced recently.
-----------------------
In 2017, I published a rather controversial blog which shared the story of a couple who chose financial freedom over home ownership.
OMG!
What did I just say?
Isn't home ownership part and parcel of financial freedom?
Well, it depends.
Anyway, some readers didn't like the blog.
It could have hurt their vested interests, if you know what I mean.
So, if you are one with vested interests, you might want to stop listening or reading now.
I don't want to upset anyone.
I might have upset some people before but it was never my intention.
Still here?
OK, since you are still interested to find out more, just take this as another perspective on how to achieve financial freedom.
So, back to this couple who chose financial freedom over home ownership.
They are in their thirties and, well, they are retired.
They can work from anywhere in the world that has good internet access.
They are able to move to anywhere in the world where housing is relatively cheap to rent.
Footloose, they move to any country with an attractive standard of living, while having a relatively low cost of living.
This lifestyle must sound pretty attractive to many people, including Singaporeans.
This is probably because it is attractive.
It is probably why many Singaporeans are thinking of moving to Johor in Malaysia to live.
Not being bogged down by high costs of living especially the high housing costs in Singapore, they could possibly fast forward their journey to financial freedom.
What about people who want to stay in Singapore?
Singapore is relatively more expensive but there are many things to like about Singapore.
Well, for those of us who choose to stay in Singapore, we could become financially free faster if we avoid over consumption in housing.
Very often, people over consume when it comes to housing.
Not surprisingly, they might also be the people who find financial freedom out of reach.
This could be even though they might be enjoying higher than average earned incomes.
Often, it has to do with peer pressure.
Keeping up appearances is more than just financially destructive.
Do you believe me when I say that when I tell people I downsized from a two-bedroom apartment to a one-bedroom apartment, most of the time I would get a negative response?
When I told my banker that I bought a small car, he said the same thing my dad said, that he would not buy a small car unless he could not afford a bigger one.
When we think about it, it really has to do with peer pressure and keeping up appearances, but it is also how we deal with it.
In a recent survey, results showed that homeowners generally scored lower on retirement readiness than those who live in rental homes.
Nearly 30 per cent of homeowners surveyed saved less than 10 per cent of their salary, and their median retirement readiness score was placed at the “very low” level.
“These results suggest that homeownership does not guarantee retirement security, especially if an individual is not saving enough for retirement.
While a property is usually considered a financial asset in the long term, it is essentially still a liability until its mortgage is paid off.
“An individual with most of their retirement savings tied up in property assets could be facing a less-than-ideal retirement, since this property wealth does not contribute to retirement income.”
So, subscribing to this idea that our homes are investments could be misguided.
In order for this to be a good idea, we must be willing to monetize our homes in one way or another.
We must be willing to rent out the spare room or rooms, if available.
We must be willing to downsize or downgrade to unlock value, if any.
This means going to for a smaller apartment or to move from a private apartment to a public flat later on.
It doesn't hurt to have some advantages in life but unless severely disadvantaged, all of us can be financially free.
Know ourselves.
Know our circumstances.
We especially do not want to do something to keep up appearances.
If we want to be financially free, focus on cash flow.
Don't end up being asset rich but cash poor.
If you want an example of this, just think of AK spending his early retirement playing computer games!
I am not going to say if AK can do it, so can you.
You might not like computer games.
However, we can definitely spend some time talking to ourselves to come up with a plan.
Over the years, I have talked to myself about real estate and my philosophy.
With the Additional Buyer Stamp Duties (ABSDs) increased by quite a bit, a reader asked for my thoughts on the property market in Singapore now.
Regular eavesdroppers on AK would be able to guess the response.
My philosophy has not changed.
If we are investing in real estate, just like investing in stocks, we want to invest in an asset that, after expenses, will generate a meaningful income for us.
If we buy real estate thinking that the price of the asset will rise in the next few years and that we would be able to flip it for a profit, that is not investing.
That is speculating.
Usually, I would stop here.
However, for quite a few years now and it has gotten a lot worse, we have people buying real estate in Singapore not to generate any income nor to flip for a profit.
They simply want Singapore properties as a store of wealth because of the strong Singapore Dollar and the politically stable environment.
They are mostly foreigners.
Wow!
So many ultra rich foreigners!
From which countries?
You ask, you answer.
I am not going there.
I have said before that when we buy a property, we want to ask 2 questions.
1. It is not just a question of affordability but we should also ask if it is value for money.
2. Do we have deep pockets for if things go wrong and many things could go wrong.
However, to these very rich people, these two questions are most probably irrelevant.
So what if the properties don't make money or if they should even lose money?
If the ultra rich are able to protect a big fraction of their wealth, they would still be very rich and that could be more than enough for them.
For the rest of us, we really have to stay grounded and not be swept away by barbers telling us we need to have more frequent haircuts even if we are going bald.
Now, for those who bought properties in Singapore recently thinking they could flip them a few years later at higher prices, the much higher ABSDs announced might have turned those dreams into nightmares.
The government of Singapore wants properties to be sold mostly to genuine owner occupiers because housing affordability is a big issue.
Singapore welcomes foreign direct investment but we do not want foreign direct speculation.
Hence, the recent strengthening of property cooling measures.
For those of us who are still thinking of investing in properties for passive income in Singapore in spite of the ABSDs, I would go back to those 2 questions I said we should be asking.
Cannot remember?
Scroll up and take a screenshot.
Nightmares do not discriminate between speculators and investors.
This is a fact.
Pay a price too high and we could have a high price to pay in future.
Anyone who is not ultra rich but wants to be a real estate investor in Singapore might want to read the related posts below.
"Bankruptcy petitions are on the rise amid interest rate hikes, growing inflationary pressures and the expiry of pandemic support measures for borrowers, notes real estate consultancy Knight Frank."
It was something that generated plenty of discussion.
Most readers were curious.
Many agreed while some, mostly property agents trying to sell properties including those trying to sell properties in Iskandar Johor, disagreed.
Some who disagreed were even pretty belligerent and said I was spouting nonsense, which, to be fair, I do from time to time.
Sadness.
From that blog, a few more were published.
Since it has been so many years, readers new and old might ask what is the Rule of 15?
Basically, the "Rule of 15" says that if we could buy a home at a price that is 15 times (or less) the annual rent a similar property would fetch in the area, it makes more sense to buy than to rent.
I felt that the simple "rule" could be used as a guide to help in decision making not just in buying and renting properties but also in selling if we happen to own properties.
I still feel the same today.
Anyway, if you are new to my blog or if you need to refresh your memory, this is the link to the blog which has examples too:
You could also tune in to a video AK produced on the Rule of 15 if you prefer to listen than to read:
At the time, I said that the low interest rate environment which, of course, persisted more or less till early last year, made the very much lower rental yields acceptable to investors.
Now that interest rates have risen or normalized, if we have purchased a property with the help of a bank loan, we would have a heavier debt burden and would have to demand a higher rental yield from the property.
Property value could, however, reduce if the property we own is unable to command a higher asking rent which is highly possible in a weaker economy.
Doctor Evil getting a haircut in Iskandar, Johor?
Paying more every month to service the loan and seeing the value of the property reducing which might or might not lead to lenders knocking on our door?
Double whammy?
So stressful.
It would be even more stressful if we took on huge loans or many loans and leveraged to the hilt.
Interest rates rising seems to have led to the tide receding and we could begin to see who are the people who were swimming naked.
So embarrassing.
Very cham like that.
Remember this blog in which I said we could grow richer if we didn't think of three things?
That was about 6 years ago but I think some bits are still worth reading.
My gut feeling is that mortgage rates will rise faster than the SSB's 10 year average coupon.
Even the fixed deposit rates are rising rather quickly now as banks have started competing for deposits.
Banks are trying to lock savers in with higher rates now because they think interest rates will go even higher in future.
My mom went to renew her fixed deposit a few weeks ago and was pleasantly surprised to be offered 1.1% for 1 year.
This was because my aunt did her renewal a month before and she was offered 0.8% at the same bank.
Another bank offered my mom 1.5% per annum but it was a 2 years fixed deposit.
For a 3 years fixed deposit, they offered her 1.9%.
That's too long and we are not compensated enough when interest rates are expected to rise rapidly in the next couple of years.
I told my mom to just go with the 1 year fixed deposit because interest rate would probably continue rising rapidly.
We could soon see 2% interest rate offered for a 1 year fixed deposit.
In fact, it could even go higher if inflation stays stubbornly high and the Fed has no choice but to continue raising interest rate to a point where it is higher than the inflation rate.
After all, the most effective way of bringing down inflation if past experience is anything to go by is to have interest rate higher than what inflation is and inflation is at about 8% in the USA now.
We can say that inflation is lower in Singapore but, unfortunately, when it comes to interest rate, Singapore is a price taker because we do not control the interest rate in our country.
"Most countries, including the United States and China, adopt an interest rate policy where central banks raise or cut interest rates.
"Singapore is the only major economy in the world to use the exchange rate, guiding the Singdollar higher or lower.
"MAS says the exchange rate is the best tool for a small, open economy like Singapore"
Still, no one can be sure what the longer term picture is going to be but in the shorter term, there will be pain and most of us should be prepared to tighten our belts.
I remember when I paid off my last home loan, my mortgage rate was 5.1%.
Yes, young people might find that rather surreal but it wasn't a bad dream.
It was real.
Interest rates are going higher but no one knows for sure how much higher.
Still, if we are not overleveraged, all else being equal, we should do better than most.
So, a blog on why I invest in REITs is probably a good idea.
Some people are worried that impending rising interest rates will mean REITs doing poorly.
After all, REITs are all leveraged to some degree and higher interest rates will surely burden REITs.
However, compared to us directly investing in a property, REITs are probably more conservative when it comes to borrowing money with allowed gearing capped at 50%.
We are allowed a higher gearing level in the purchase of a property, in comparison, with 70% or 80% LTV being the norm.
Of course, property valuation has to be trustworthy but that is another topic.
So, if we are worried about rising interest rates and REITs doing poorly, we should also be worried about investing in real estate in general.
I very much prefer investing in REITs because:
1. I do not want to take on more debt.
2. I do not want concentration risk.
3. I do not want to deal with tenants.
Regular readers know I do not borrow money to invest in stocks.
I know some will argue that some debt is not a bad thing and I agree because a judicious amount of debt can make good decisions deliver better results.
Of course, the opposite is also true as debt will magnify the damage resulting from bad decisions.
There is no telling when a seemingly good decision could turn bad and I do not want to take the chance especially in retirement.
In fact, investing in REITs already exposes us to debt since REITs are leveraged.
I just don't want to take on more debt on a personal level and like I said, REITs are relatively conservative when it comes to leverage which helps to give me peace of mind.
I don't have to deal with their demands or complaints.
I don't have to deal with the upkeep of the properties.
The only thing I have to do is to check my bank account once every quarter to make sure these REITs pay me a share of the rental income.
I should also mention that it is rarely possible to buy properties at a discount to their valuation.
Properties are rarely mispriced like some were in the USA during the early days of the Global Financial Crisis.
However, it is often possible to buy REITs at a discount to their NAV and a relatively big discount at times.
If we look at my largest investments in REITs today, most of my investment in AIMS APAC REIT was made when it was trading at a discount to NAV more than 10 years ago.
My investment in AIMS APAC REIT has been free of cost for some time and it is still generating income for me.
IREIT Global is a more recent investment in comparison and I increased my investment in the REIT substantially at a discount to its NAV and it is still trading at a discount to NAV today.
Sabana REIT grew from a small legacy position to a more substantial position after the low ball offer by ESR REIT was rejected and the purchases which resulted in the relatively substantial position I have now were made at a big discount to NAV.
I could go back a few years and it was the same with Saizen REIT, for example.
If you are using the mobile version of ASSI and would like to read more related posts, go to the full web version of ASSI by scrolling to the bottom of this page and clicking on the link.
Links to more posts in the left and right sidebars can be found.
When I was blogging more actively, advocating prudence and reminding readers to be careful of overleveraging financially was something I did on a pretty regular basis.
I also said that we should always have an adequate emergency fund and do not think that we can always depend on lenders to extend a helping hand.
We should develop a crisis mentality and do not think that we are invincible.
Remember that bad things do happen and when they happen, it is often without warning.
The COVID-19 crisis is not just a bad thing happening as it is probably the worst thing to happen in many decades.
We are probably familiar with the saying "spare the cane and spoil the child."
Sounds heartless but it works.
I am one such beneficiary or victim. ;)
I believe that people do learn better after a painful lesson or a few and the COVID-19 crisis has probably left some cane marks on most of us.
Unless we are very rich, we cannot afford to feel invincible.
Just because some people we know are buying a second home or an investment property, it does not mean we should too, especially if it means having to borrow large sums of money and having a harder time to make ends meet.
Why risk so much for something we don't really need but maybe want?
So, when do we know we are overleveraged?
Do some stress testing and imagine losing our jobs or our business doing badly resulting in income going to zero.
How long would we be able to last financially in such a situation?
Ah, I have passive income!
Some wonder why I have such a big emergency fund even though my passive income seems more than adequate.
The COVID-19 crisis is probably eloquent enough to provide the answer.
Dividends can be suspended or reduced and that's what happened during this crisis.
An article on investing in properties in Iskandar, Johor and how difficult things are for some.
This is a topic I blogged about before as well.
"The Johor skyline is now dotted with empty condominium units, due to an oversupply in the market and lack of foreign buyers.
"When Singapore business owner Jonathan Gan purchased a four-room condominium at Lovell Country Garden in 2018, he thought he had clinched his dream retirement home.
"The freehold apartment located near Johor Bahru’s city centre was twice the size of his three-room HDB flat in Singapore, but the cost was only half of the latter when he bought it directly from the developers.
"Just three years after he purchased it, Gan, who bought the unit at around RM1 million (US$242,000), is having a hard time trying to sell it, even though the asking price is a fraction of what he paid for it.
"Property analyst Debbie Choy, who is director of Knight Frank Malaysia’s Johor branch, said the situation is particularly bad for condominiums and serviced apartments, of which there is an oversupply in the Iskandar region.
"Even owners of the more premium, newer developments in Johor Bahru are having problems trying to attract tenants.
"In its report, Henry Butcher Malaysia highlighted that Johor was the state with the highest proportion of unsold residential properties in the country, even before COVID-19."
When the tide goes out, we will find out who have been swimming naked.
In a more recent blog, I said that some people have nothing to risk but everything to gain when asking us to part with our money.
Even people we think of as friends who are not property agents might be getting a commission when they recommend that we buy a property.
Remember to be careful with our money as nobody cares more about our money than we do.
For sure, external factors are making things financially more difficult for many of us.
If we have made the situation worse because of bad decisions we have made in the past, learn the lesson and avoid making similar decisions again in the future.
Do not make financially difficult times more difficult for ourselves.
This blog is in reply to a reader's comment: HERE.
Hi Tonny,
Apologies for the tardy reply.
Didn't check my blog for a couple of days.
Been spending my time sailing in another world. ;p
We are likely to stay in a low interest rate environment for some time to come.
So, using our CPF OA money which generates 2.5% risk free return every year to fund the purchase of homes is rather silly.
Of course, for some people, there really isn't any other choice but for those of us who have a choice, if we have idle cash, using that to fund the purchase of homes makes better sense.
If we do not have idle cash but have assets which can be liquidated to generate cash, I would liquidate assets which are not generating an income first if I am thinking of raising cash that way.
Income generating assets should not be liquidated first especially very good income generating assets like investments made in the local banks at rock bottom prices during the crisis.
Of course, the CPF is risk free and volatility free while our investments are not so.
Still, our local banks are well capitalised and well run.
They are probably the next best thing to the CPF.
If we have paid rock bottom prices for their stocks, they are probably generating very attractive return on investment for us.
What is more important to us?
Having something that is risk free and volatility free that generates a decent return like the CPF?
Or having the next best thing for higher returns like investing in our local banks?
I don't know what gives you peace of mind.
You decide. :)
Since I am on the subject, recently, we have been bombarded with advertisements to use our CPF OA money to invest in properties.
Who are these people telling us it is OK to use our CPF OA money to invest in properties if we do not have cash and that owning multiple properties is not something only the rich can do?
These people have vested interest in making us part with our money.
We buy a property through them, they make money.
If the property does not do well later on and if we have to sell, they make money too.
They have nothing to risk and everything to gain.
Don't bite off more than we can chew because some do choke and some choke to death.
When we use our CPF-OA money to purchase a property, we must be aware of the opportunity cost that comes with the decision. When we use our CPF-OA money to purchase a property, we are losing out on interest payments made by the government to us. Despite what some people say, we are not paying interest to the CPF for using our CPF savings in the purchase at all if we should sell the property with a capital gain. We are, in fact, paying ourselves interest (to our CPF account) for the CPF savings we have utilised in the purchase of the said property.
Now, what if we made a loss from selling the said property? Would we have to top up our CPF account to make up for the capital loss? Alamak! Real or Not? Don't listen to hearsay! Beware the fake news! Watch this video for the answer:
As property prices have risen a lot in the last 10 years, some people find it hard to believe that there is a possibility that property investments could go horribly wrong in Singapore. Well, they have gone horribly wrong before in the past and they could go horribly wrong again in the future. The possibility exists. We have to remember that not everyone has the ability to handle such a possibility even if they have the willingness to do so. Those who have been swept away by euphoria and paid prices too high should beware. Buying and thinking that property prices can only go up is speculation. With the enormous price tags of private real estate here in Singapore, it is not an overstatement to say that it is speculation on a relatively large scale.
People rarely make money buying real estate in a market euphoria but they usually make money buying when Mr. Market is depressed. Also, people do lose their jobs and for those who are financially leveraged to the max, it could be hell on earth. Unless we have deep pockets, it is best not to participate as just one mistake could sink us. Remember not to ask barbers if we need a haircut. For sure, no one cares more about our money than we do.
For most of us, unless we are very rich already, our CPF money is our ultimate safety net in retirement funding. The fact that we don't have to top up our CPF savings if we make a loss in the sale of our property doesn't mean we should just anyhow use our CPF savings to anyhow buy a property or, indeed, multiple properties. This is not "masak masak". Don't "suka suka". Financial prudence might not make us rich fast but it will ensure we avoid painful falls, some of which we might never ever recover from.
1. Everyone needs to learn financial management skills. 2. Everyone wants a higher standard of living. 3. Everyone needs to think of all the bad things that could happen to them. If you find this unfamiliar to you, you are probably rather new to my blog. If you are interested to find out more, read the story: From rich to broke?