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SPH: A pleasant surprise.

Thursday, June 17, 2010

Sometimes, the unexpected happens in life and we can only hope that the unexpected happens to be a pleasant surprise and not a nasty one. After yesterday's doji on the back of higher volume, the white candle today on reduced volume was definitely unexpected and a pleasant surprise.  Could this continue tomorrow?  Your guess is as good as mine.




I see resistance at $3.82 next.  This is provided by the 100dMA. If this gives way, $3.88 is next, as provided by the 50dMA.  It is interesting to note that we might have seen the formation of a mini double bottom for SPH.  Using $3.68 as the trough and $3.79 as the neckline does give us $3.88 as a target.  Coincidence? Maybe.

Are we seeing the beginnings of an uptrend?  The MACD is rising in negative territory.  So, this could very well turn out to be a rebound in a downtrend and nothing more.  The negative divergence between price and volume is, this time, supported by a negative divergence between price and MFI.  This suggests that price has been rising on rather weak technicals in the last few sessions.

I would not buy more SPH at this point in time.  I would, in fact, sell some at $3.82 as a hedge and sell more at $3.88 if that is hit. I would keep an eye on the negative divergence to see if it gets corrected.  If it does, and if the MACD rises above zero into positive territory, more upside might be on the cards and I would hold my remaining shares for the ride up.  Good luck to fellow shareholders.

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